Model Validation as an Integrated Social Process. George P. Richardson Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany - State University of New York [email protected] What do we mean by ‘validation’?.
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Model Validation asan Integrated Social Process
George P. Richardson
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy
University at Albany - State University of New York
Adapted from Saeed 1992
Forrester 1973, Forrester & Senge 1980, Richardson and Pugh 1981
Bryson, Strategic Planning for Public and Nonprofit Organizations
Eden & Ackerman 1998
The words here represent stocks.
This is not a causal diagram.
No explicit stocks or flows, no clear units, but it tells a compelling story – It’s a good start.
DELAY FIXED ((Lateral pressure/10*Military force effect/Trade and bargaining leverage + International conflict)/Lateral conflict break point, 1 , 0)
Complexity, discreteness, units confusion and disagreement, disembodied parameter, confusion of the effect of a concept [leverage] with the concept itself, and the wonder what keeps this probability between 0 and 1?
Constant Perceived Value suggests continually rising Resources, but that doesn’t seem correct
Here, the Perceived Value of Integrated Information sets a planned level of resources