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Assessing the influence of astronomical phenomena on terrestrial biodiversity. Fabo Feng, Coryn Bailer-Jones Max Planck Institute for Astronomy, Heidelberg 27.09.2012. Background. Rohde & Muller, Nature, 2005. Number of genera (thansands). Biodiversity = Origination – Extinction

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Assessing the influence of astronomical phenomena on terrestrial biodiversity

Assessing the influence of astronomical phenomena on terrestrial biodiversity

Fabo Feng, Coryn Bailer-Jones

Max Planck Institute for Astronomy, Heidelberg

27.09.2012


Background

Background

Rohde & Muller, Nature, 2005

Number of genera (thansands)

Biodiversity = Origination – Extinction

Trend + Periodic Oscillation?

Age(Myr)


Claimed astronomical mechanisms

Claimed astronomical mechanisms

Perturb Oort Cloud (possibly caused by the motion of the Sun)

Cosmic Ray(Star formation, interstellar magnetic field)

Supernova & GRB

Reviewed in Bailer-Jones (2009)


Assessing the influence of astronomical phenomena on terrestrial biodiversity

A possible connection between the solar environment and the biosphere

Stellar density

Study the solar motion

Build an orbit-based model

Reference models

Test the model


Data time series extinction rate

Data: time series & extinction rate

Raup & Sepkoski, Science, 1982

Bambach, Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci., 2006

Rohde & Muller, Nature, 2005

Alroy et. al., Science, 2008


Assessing the influence of astronomical phenomena on terrestrial biodiversity

stellar density

Solar motion Orbit-based model


Assessing the influence of astronomical phenomena on terrestrial biodiversity

reference models

Orbit-based model Bayesian inference

data sets

Likelihood = Integral of the normalized extinction rate over the normalized stellar density

Evidence = Averaging likelihood over the parameter space (initial condition)

Evidence ratio = Evidence1/Evidence2

Extinction Rate

Stellar Density


Reference models periodic

Reference Models: Periodic

Probability of

observing the extinction time given

the parameters of Periodicmodel


Reference models random

Reference Models: Random

Probability of

observing the

extinction time given

the parameters of Random model


Reference models uniform

Reference Models: Uniform

Probability of

observing the

extinction time given

the parameters of Uniform model


Likelihood for orbit based model

Likelihood for Orbit-based model

Data: B18

Model: Orbit-based model


Likelihood for periodic model

Likelihood for Periodic model

Data: B18

Model: Periodic model


Evidence ratio

Evidence Ratio

Data: B18

Model: Orbit-based model v.s. reference models


Summary

Summary

  • Neither the Orbit-based model nor other reference models are favored over the uniform model

  • In particular, no evidence for periodicity in biodiversity data

  • Additional information: astroimpacts.org


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