REGIONAL GROWTH PLANNING OFFICE: GROWTH SCENARIOS-March 2011

1. REGIONAL GROWTH PLANNING OFFICE: GROWTH SCENARIOS-March 2011

2. GROWTH SCENARIOS-PORTALES/ROOSEVELT AND CLOVIS/CURRY Estimating 2010 population using CAFB only. • CAFB Growth only between July 2009 (3492) and Dec. 31, 2010 (5000)=1,508 • CAFB growth in dependents July 2009 (3526) and Dec. 31. 2010 (5049)=1,487 • Total CAFB population added to region: 2,995 • Historical Pop. Split Curry:Roosevelt =70%:30% • Therefore, 2,096 people to Curry and 899 to Roosevelt • Historically both Clovis and Portales have taken 90% of growth in counties. • Then, Clovis takes 1,886 people and Portales 809 • RESULTS Summarized on following slide

3. GROWTH SCENARIOS-PORTALES/ROOSEVELT AND CLOVIS/CURRY (Source: U.S. Census Bureau, except as noted)) • Population Counts 1910-2009

4. GROWTH SCENARIOS-PORTALES/ROOSEVELT AND CLOVIS/CURRY CAFB Job Creation in Community • CAFB personnel growth 2010-2016: 6048-5000 = 1,048 (Considered to be Basic employment that will generate other jobs in community. • Assume, conservatively, one additional job will be created per each CAFB personnel job (1,048) • Therefore, an additional 1,048 jobs will be created in the community through CAFB.

5. GROWTH SCENARIOS-PORTALES/ROOSEVELT AND CLOVIS/CURRY • Natural Growth in Region as per BBER • Current regional population: 68,582 (2010 Census) • Roosevelt County: 19,846 (2010)(2010 Census) • Curry County: 48,736 (2010)(2010 Census) • Clovis: 37,775 (2010)(RGPO) • Portales: 12,280 (2010) (2010 Census) • BBER suggests annual growth at 0.7% until 2015, then • 0.3% per annum thereafter.

6. GROWTH SCENARIOS-PORTALES/ROOSEVELT AND CLOVIS/CURRY • Regional Growth Based on BBER Slow Growth Rates

7. GROWTH SCENARIOS-PORTALES/ROOSEVELT AND CLOVIS/CURRY • OTHER POSSIBLE GROWTH: Alternate Energy • Tres Amigas: 50 permanent jobs around 2016-2017 • Current Wind/ Solar Proposals could generate 80 permanent operations and maintenance jobs [(800 MW ÷ 10 MW) (assumes one permanent job per 10 MW power)] • Therefore: about 130 permanent jobs (basic employment) may be created by the year 2020. • Each one of these jobs will create additional jobs in the community. • Various economic studies in NM have suggested regional economic multipliers ranging from 1.43 (DOE impact in NM by Univ. of Texas)to 4.85 (Arrowhead data) dependent upon the industry(ies) being studied. For this first conservative scenario we assumed a very conservative job multiplier of 1.0 (basic to non-basic ratio), that is for each job created in basic employment, 1.0 jobs are created in the non-basic or service sector. The regional economic multiplier in this case is 2.0 • Historically, Roosevelt County has contained about 30% of the regional population (Curry/Roosevelt) with Curry having about 70%.

8. GROWTH SCENARIOS-PORTALES/ROOSEVELT AND CLOVIS/CURRY • Job Creation and Population Generated • CAFB: 1,048 jobs generated in community (conservative estimate, assuming 1 non-basic job created for each basic job.) Split 70% (734 jobs) to Curry and 30% (314 jobs) to Roosevelt. • Tres Amigas and Alternate Energy: 130 basic jobs split 70% (91 jobs) to Curry and 30% (39 jobs) to Roosevelt. • Total new basic jobs created: • Roosevelt: 353 • Curry: 825 • Total new non Basic jobs created: • Roosevelt: 353 x 1.0 = 353 • Curry: 825 x 1.0 = 825 Total new Jobs Created: Roosevelt: 706 Curry: 1,650 Total: 2,356

9. GROWTH SCENARIOS-PORTALES/ROOSEVELT AND CLOVIS/CURRY • Assuming each job forms a household, then each new job in Roosevelt and Curry will generate the following population: • Roosevelt: 706 x 2.61 (Avg. Household. Size) = 1,843 • Curry: 1,650 x 2.62 (Avg. Household Size) = 4,323 • TOTAL6,166 (military family size 3.4 persons) Military personnel split about 50%-50% families and unaccompanied)

10. GROWTH SCENARIOS-PORTALES/ROOSEVELT AND CLOVIS/CURRY Scenario #1: Summary of Population Growth 2011-2020 (2025)

11. GROWTH SCENARIOS-PORTALES/ROOSEVELT AND CLOVIS/CURRY • Scenario #1-Conservative • So, in 2020 populations look like this: • (note: approx. 90 % of counties growth goes to cities)

12. GROWTH SCENARIOS-PORTALES/ROOSEVELT AND CLOVIS/CURRY • Growth Scenario #2: Middle-Ground Growth Potential-2011-2020. ASSUME: 1. CAFB grows to 7,000 by 2020 (≈2871 families)(≈ 7,069 dependents) 2. Assume BBER Normal Growth Rate: ≤ 1% over 9 years 3. Assume Tres Amigas-50 permanent employees 4. Assume Alternate energy maximizes at about 4,000 MW for both Roosevelt and Curry Counties. (≈400 jobs) 5. Assume a basic to non-basic ratio of 1.6 (might be higher) or a regional economic multiplier of 2.6 6. Assume each job creates a household.

13. GROWTH SCENARIOS-PORTALES/ROOSEVELT AND CLOVIS/CURRY • Scenario #2: Middle-Ground: Summary of Population Growth 2011-2020 (2025)

14. GROWTH SCENARIOS-PORTALES/ROOSEVELT AND CLOVIS/CURRY • Scenario #2: • So, in 2020 populations look like this:

15. GROWTH SCENARIOS-PORTALES/ROOSEVELT AND CLOVIS/CURRY Scenario 3. Dreaming BIG Suppose: 1. CAFB grows to 7,500 by 2020 (≈3075 families)(≈ 7,688 dependents) (≈ 4,563 children) 2. Assume BBER is 0.7%/annum until and including 2014 then 1%/annum until 2020; increase due to natural increase over this period because of increased in-migration- retired military (VA). 3. Assume Tres Amigas-50 permanent employees 4. Assume Alternate energy maximizes at about 4,000 MW for both Roosevelt and Curry Counties. (≈400 jobs) 5. Assume a basic to non-basic ratio of 2.39 Arrowhead data for Roosevelt Co. (Curry is higher) or a regional economic multiplier of 3.39. (Ratio of 1.0:1.0 continues for military) 6. Assume each job creates a household.

16. GROWTH SCENARIOS-PORTALES/ROOSEVELT AND CLOVIS/CURRY • Regional Growth Based on BBER Modified Growth Rates

17. GROWTH SCENARIOS-PORTALES/ROOSEVELT AND CLOVIS/CURRY • Scenario #3: Dreaming Big 2011-2020 (2025)

18. GROWTH SCENARIOS-PORTALES/ROOSEVELT AND CLOVIS/CURRY • Scenario #3: • So, in 2020 populations look like this:

19. GROWTH SCENARIOS-PORTALES/ROOSEVELT AND CLOVIS/CURRY • Summary of Growth Scenarios: 2020