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California Climate Observations: CalSat. Randy Friedl, Jet Propulsion Lab Steve Hipskind, Ames Research Center. Outline. • California Climate Assessments / Issues • Observation needs • Observation capabilities • Observation strategy Aircraft, including UAS - (e.g., Global Hawk)

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california climate observations calsat

California Climate Observations:CalSat

Randy Friedl, Jet Propulsion Lab

Steve Hipskind, Ames Research Center

outline
Outline
  • • California Climate Assessments / Issues
  • • Observation needs
  • • Observation capabilities
  • • Observation strategy
    • Aircraft, including UAS - (e.g., Global Hawk)
    • LEO (e.g., QuikSCAT)
    • LEO constellation (NASA EOS, GPS, DMC, RapidEye)
    • GEO (NOAA GOES)
    • L1 (DSCOVR)
  • • ROM Costs
  • • Recommendations
our changing climate assessment priorities
Our Changing Climate (Assessment Priorities)
  • Public Health
  • Air Quality
  • Heat
  • Agriculture
  • Temperature increases
  • Pests / pathogens
  • Stresses
  • Rising Sea Level
  • Coastal Flooding / Levees
  • Shrinking beaches
  • Water Resources
  • Sierra Snowpack
  • Water supply
  • Hydropower
  • Winter Recreation
  • Forests & Landscapes
  • Wildfires
  • Invasive species
  • Shifting vegetation
  • Declining forest productivity
  • Carbon Sources and Sinks
science challenges require high spatial and temporal measurements and models
Science Challenges Require High Spatial and Temporal Measurements and Models

GCM grid ~ 150-250 km

RCM grid ~ 10-50 km

Aircraft & Satellite resolution

~ 0.1 – 100 km

Source: R. Rood, U. Mich.

slide6

The U.S. has a highly capable observing system for global scale climate change

  • NASA and NOAA have 29 spacecraft and over 120 instruments currently observing the Earth system
  • NRC notes that this capability will decrease dramatically over next ten years, even if U.S. implements NRC Decadal Survey recommendations

NASA’s Earth Science Satellites

observation capabilities
Observation Capabilities
  • PASSIVE
    • Land / Ocean Surface Imaging
      • Multi-spectral (LANDSAT)
      • Hyperspectral
    • Atmospheric Sounding
      • UV/Visible Spectrometry
      • Near IR Spectrometry
  • ACTIVE
    • Radar
    • Lidar
observation strategy
Observation Strategy
  • Airborne
  • Conventional Aircraft
  • Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS)
  • Airships
  • Balloons
  • Space based
    • Low Earth Orbit (LEO)
      • Single spacecraft
      • LEO Constellation
    • Medium Earth Orbit (MEO)
    • Geostationary Orbit (GEO)
    • Langrange Point (L1)
california er 2 coverage from two missions
California: ER-2 Coverage from Two Missions

Aircraft Enable Flexible Observation Strategy

  • Significant trade-offs between spatial and temporal coverage for given number of flight hours

Red: Flight 03-951

8 August 2003

Blue: Flight 03-952

11 August 2003

(7 Flight hours each)

Flight Line Spacing:

12nm / 23km

5 flights needed to fully cover state

Total Flight Time: 35 hours

MASTER

RC-10

slide11

Low Earth Orbit (LEO) Trades Temporal for Spatial Coverage

600km Swath

1km Resolution

561km Altitude, Sunsynchronous

  • At least once-daily coverage of all of California (twice daily for some parts of northern California)
  • Daily coverage of US pacific cost, and California Baja
  • Daily coverage of nearly the entire US east cost
  • Sparse global coverage including:
    • UK, France, Spain, Japan, China, Russia
  • Complete Daily coverage of polar regions between 70° and 84° Latitude
  • Non-sun synchronous orbits open up more coverage possibilities
slide12

The NASA LEO Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO) Mission will travel over California 6 times every 16 days

  • The green lines represent OCO flight paths over California and neighboring land and ocean regions
  • These flight paths are repeated every 16 days
    • ~2 weeks between exact revisits
    • 5 days between nearest neighbor paths
  • OCO makes more than 20,000 measurements over California every month
    • Clouds and aerosols will prevent many measurements from sampling all the way to the surface
  • Measurements from flight paths over the land and ocean regions surrounding California can establish the net flow of CO2 emissions in and out of the state
  • In its standard survey mode, OCO will be able to detect XCO2 variations as small a 1 ppm out of 380 ppm (0.3%) in a single sounding over bright surfaces
    • This corresponds to CO2 sources produced by burning as little as 7500 gallons of gasoline or diesel (<2 tanker trucks)
    • OCO should easily detect heavy traffic patterns over major urban areas

1

2

3

4

5

6

slide13

Medium Earth Orbit (MEO) provides Spatial – Temporal Compromise

  • MEO altitudes are between ~1500 – 35000 km
  • Combining MEO orbit with wide swath (~1000 km) instrument can provide up to 6 passes over California per day
slide14

Molniya Orbit Provides Longer Regional View

A highly elliptic orbit with 63.4° inclination and ~12 hour orbital period. Satellite spends ~ half day over a designated area of the earth. Orbital altitude is near 40,000 km.

geosynchronous orbit geo provides constant view of full disk
Geosynchronous Orbit (GEO) Provides Constant View of Full Disk
  • GEO altitude is ~35,000 km
  • Full Disk GOES Image (+/- 65°)
  • Provides ability to stare at given region; provides high temporal resolution
  • Ideal for tracking fast moving events such as forest fires
california er 2 coverage from two missions1
California: ER-2 Coverage from Two Missions

Langrange point (L1) provides full, daytime view of Earth

  • L1 Orbit is ~1.5 million km from Earth; undergoes 4-15 degree Lissajous orbit
    • DSCOVR was planned to provide first Earth observations from L1 (e.g. O3, aerosols, water)
    • Federal/Industrial partnership being studied for DSCOVR
slide17

Comparison of Earth Views from GEO and L1

  • Optics at GEO. The blue circle represents a 1 degree half angle that covers California and the green circle represents a 4 degree half angle to cover the continental US.
  • Optics at L1. The red circle represents a 0.1 degree half angle to cover California.
rough order of magnitude rom costs
Rough Order of Magnitude (ROM) Costs*
  • Airborne
  • Conventional Aircraft ($10M/Year) $50M 1
  • Space based
    • Low Earth Orbit (LEO)
    • Single spacecraft $50-150M 0.08
    • Medium Earth Orbit (MEO) $150M 0.08
    • Geostationary Orbit (GEO) or Molniya $300M 24

(Potential for co-launch on

commercial spacecraft) $50M

    • Langrange Point (L1) $300M 12

(DISCOVR refurbishment and

commercial partnership) $30M

5 Year Mission

California Coverage (~4x105Km2-hr/day)

*Assumes creative, cost-effective implementation strategies

slide19

Maximizing Observational Assets for Regional Change Requires Clear Science Goals and Detailed System Engineering

Gas and Particle Concentrations

Pollutant Data

Air Quality Predictions

recommendation
Recommendation
  • A robust regional climate observing system does not currently exist and will require integration of spaceborne, aircraft and groundbased measurement approaches.
  • Development of a regional observing system must be done in concert with development of regional modeling capabilities that are firmly tied to global climate model input.
  • An in-depth analysis of regional observing requirements should be pursued, along with a more detailed analysis of observing options that would be cost effective for state.
  • Regional observation strategies should leverage the substantial Federal investment in global scale observations. State options could include state satellite launch, joining or initiating a consortium or buying data commercially.
california economy ranking
California Economy Ranking
  • The World Fact Book (CIA)
  • The rankings are:[12]
  • 1. the combined United States
  • 2. China
  • 3. Japan
  • 4. India
  • 5. Germany
  • 6. United Kingdom
  • 7. France
  • 8. Italy
  • 9. Russia
  • 10. California
  • 11. Brazil
  • 12. Canada
  • 13. Mexico
  • 14. Spain
  • 15. South Korea
  • (2005 estimates)
  • California Legislative Analyst\'s Office
  • The rankings are:[13]
  • 1. the combined United States
  • 2. Japan
  • 3. Germany
  • 4. United Kingdom
  • 5. France
  • 6. California
  • 7. Italy
  • 8. China
  • 9. Canada
  • 10. Spain
  • (2004 data)
countries w earth observing satellites
Countries w/ Earth Observing Satellites
  • US (Government & Commercial)
  • Russia
  • European Space Agency
  • UK
  • France
  • Germany
  • Israel
  • Thailand
  • Singapore
  • Taiwan

China

Brazil

Korea

Japan

India

Algeria

Nigeria

Turkey

low cost earth observing options
Low Cost Earth Observing Options
  • Disaster Monitoring Constellation (DMC)
    • Multi country consortium
    • Moderate resolution LANDSAT type observations
    • Low cost satellites (<$20M)
    • Each country pays for their satellite, shares data with consortium
    • Members: UK, China, Algeria, Nigeria, Turkey
    • Surrey Satellite Technology, LTD build and launch satellites
  • RapidEye
    • Commercial venture
    • High resolution (6m), multi-spectral observations
    • Targeted for agricultural applications
    • Low cost for imagery compared to current providers ($1/km2)
    • Cost to cover California ~$400K (~400K km2)
earth observing satellites commercial
Earth Observing Satellites(Commercial)
  • * Disaster Monitoring Constellation
  • * IKONOS
  • * QuickBird
  • * SPOT
  • * EROS
  • * RapidEye
  • * FORMOSAT-2
earth observing satellites nasa eos
Earth Observing Satellites(NASA EOS)
  • FLAGSHIP MISSIONS
  • * Terra (EOS AM-1)
  • * Aqua (EOS PM-1)
  • * Aura
  • * TRMM
  • * Jason 1
  • EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCE PATHFINDER (ESSP - PI led missions)
  • * GRACE
  • * IceSAT
  • * Cloudsat/CALIPSO
  • * OCO
  • * Aquarius
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