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California Climate Observations: CalSat. Randy Friedl, Jet Propulsion Lab Steve Hipskind, Ames Research Center. Outline. • California Climate Assessments / Issues • Observation needs • Observation capabilities • Observation strategy Aircraft, including UAS - (e.g., Global Hawk)

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California climate observations calsat

California Climate Observations:CalSat

Randy Friedl, Jet Propulsion Lab

Steve Hipskind, Ames Research Center


Outline
Outline

  • • California Climate Assessments / Issues

  • • Observation needs

  • • Observation capabilities

  • • Observation strategy

    • Aircraft, including UAS - (e.g., Global Hawk)

    • LEO (e.g., QuikSCAT)

    • LEO constellation (NASA EOS, GPS, DMC, RapidEye)

    • GEO (NOAA GOES)

    • L1 (DSCOVR)

  • • ROM Costs

  • • Recommendations


Our changing climate assessment priorities
Our Changing Climate (Assessment Priorities)

  • Public Health

  • Air Quality

  • Heat

  • Agriculture

  • Temperature increases

  • Pests / pathogens

  • Stresses

  • Rising Sea Level

  • Coastal Flooding / Levees

  • Shrinking beaches

  • Water Resources

  • Sierra Snowpack

  • Water supply

  • Hydropower

  • Winter Recreation

  • Forests & Landscapes

  • Wildfires

  • Invasive species

  • Shifting vegetation

  • Declining forest productivity

  • Carbon Sources and Sinks


Science challenges require high spatial and temporal measurements and models
Science Challenges Require High Spatial and Temporal Measurements and Models

GCM grid ~ 150-250 km

RCM grid ~ 10-50 km

Aircraft & Satellite resolution

~ 0.1 – 100 km

Source: R. Rood, U. Mich.


The U.S. has a highly capable observing system for global scale climate change

  • NASA and NOAA have 29 spacecraft and over 120 instruments currently observing the Earth system

  • NRC notes that this capability will decrease dramatically over next ten years, even if U.S. implements NRC Decadal Survey recommendations

NASA’s Earth Science Satellites


Observation capabilities
Observation Capabilities scale climate change

  • PASSIVE

    • Land / Ocean Surface Imaging

      • Multi-spectral (LANDSAT)

      • Hyperspectral

    • Atmospheric Sounding

      • UV/Visible Spectrometry

      • Near IR Spectrometry

  • ACTIVE

    • Radar

    • Lidar


Observation strategy
Observation Strategy scale climate change

  • Airborne

  • Conventional Aircraft

  • Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS)

  • Airships

  • Balloons

  • Space based

    • Low Earth Orbit (LEO)

      • Single spacecraft

      • LEO Constellation

    • Medium Earth Orbit (MEO)

    • Geostationary Orbit (GEO)

    • Langrange Point (L1)


California er 2 coverage from two missions
California: ER-2 Coverage from Two Missions scale climate change

Aircraft Enable Flexible Observation Strategy

  • Significant trade-offs between spatial and temporal coverage for given number of flight hours

Red: Flight 03-951

8 August 2003

Blue: Flight 03-952

11 August 2003

(7 Flight hours each)

Flight Line Spacing:

12nm / 23km

5 flights needed to fully cover state

Total Flight Time: 35 hours

MASTER

RC-10


Low Earth Orbit (LEO) Trades Temporal for Spatial Coverage scale climate change

600km Swath

1km Resolution

561km Altitude, Sunsynchronous

  • At least once-daily coverage of all of California (twice daily for some parts of northern California)

  • Daily coverage of US pacific cost, and California Baja

  • Daily coverage of nearly the entire US east cost

  • Sparse global coverage including:

    • UK, France, Spain, Japan, China, Russia

  • Complete Daily coverage of polar regions between 70° and 84° Latitude

  • Non-sun synchronous orbits open up more coverage possibilities


The NASA LEO Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO) Mission will travel over California 6 times every 16 days

  • The green lines represent OCO flight paths over California and neighboring land and ocean regions

  • These flight paths are repeated every 16 days

    • ~2 weeks between exact revisits

    • 5 days between nearest neighbor paths

  • OCO makes more than 20,000 measurements over California every month

    • Clouds and aerosols will prevent many measurements from sampling all the way to the surface

  • Measurements from flight paths over the land and ocean regions surrounding California can establish the net flow of CO2 emissions in and out of the state

  • In its standard survey mode, OCO will be able to detect XCO2 variations as small a 1 ppm out of 380 ppm (0.3%) in a single sounding over bright surfaces

    • This corresponds to CO2 sources produced by burning as little as 7500 gallons of gasoline or diesel (<2 tanker trucks)

    • OCO should easily detect heavy traffic patterns over major urban areas

1

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3

4

5

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Medium Earth Orbit (MEO) provides Spatial – Temporal Compromise

  • MEO altitudes are between ~1500 – 35000 km

  • Combining MEO orbit with wide swath (~1000 km) instrument can provide up to 6 passes over California per day


Molniya Orbit Provides Longer Regional View Compromise

A highly elliptic orbit with 63.4° inclination and ~12 hour orbital period. Satellite spends ~ half day over a designated area of the earth. Orbital altitude is near 40,000 km.


Geosynchronous orbit geo provides constant view of full disk
Geosynchronous Orbit (GEO) Provides Constant View of Full Disk

  • GEO altitude is ~35,000 km

  • Full Disk GOES Image (+/- 65°)

  • Provides ability to stare at given region; provides high temporal resolution

  • Ideal for tracking fast moving events such as forest fires


California er 2 coverage from two missions1
California: ER-2 Coverage from Two Missions Disk

Langrange point (L1) provides full, daytime view of Earth

  • L1 Orbit is ~1.5 million km from Earth; undergoes 4-15 degree Lissajous orbit

    • DSCOVR was planned to provide first Earth observations from L1 (e.g. O3, aerosols, water)

    • Federal/Industrial partnership being studied for DSCOVR


Comparison of Earth Views from GEO and L1 Disk

  • Optics at GEO. The blue circle represents a 1 degree half angle that covers California and the green circle represents a 4 degree half angle to cover the continental US.

  • Optics at L1. The red circle represents a 0.1 degree half angle to cover California.


Rough order of magnitude rom costs
Rough Order of Magnitude (ROM) Costs* Disk

  • Airborne

  • Conventional Aircraft ($10M/Year) $50M 1

  • Space based

    • Low Earth Orbit (LEO)

    • Single spacecraft $50-150M 0.08

    • Medium Earth Orbit (MEO) $150M 0.08

    • Geostationary Orbit (GEO) or Molniya $300M 24

      (Potential for co-launch on

      commercial spacecraft) $50M

    • Langrange Point (L1) $300M 12

      (DISCOVR refurbishment and

      commercial partnership) $30M

5 Year Mission

California Coverage (~4x105Km2-hr/day)

*Assumes creative, cost-effective implementation strategies


Maximizing Observational Assets for Regional Change Requires Clear Science Goals and Detailed System Engineering

Gas and Particle Concentrations

Pollutant Data

Air Quality Predictions


Recommendation
Recommendation Clear Science Goals and Detailed System Engineering

  • A robust regional climate observing system does not currently exist and will require integration of spaceborne, aircraft and groundbased measurement approaches.

  • Development of a regional observing system must be done in concert with development of regional modeling capabilities that are firmly tied to global climate model input.

  • An in-depth analysis of regional observing requirements should be pursued, along with a more detailed analysis of observing options that would be cost effective for state.

  • Regional observation strategies should leverage the substantial Federal investment in global scale observations. State options could include state satellite launch, joining or initiating a consortium or buying data commercially.


  • BACKUP Clear Science Goals and Detailed System Engineering


California economy ranking
California Economy Ranking Clear Science Goals and Detailed System Engineering

  • The World Fact Book (CIA)

  • The rankings are:[12]

  • 1. the combined United States

  • 2. China

  • 3. Japan

  • 4. India

  • 5. Germany

  • 6. United Kingdom

  • 7. France

  • 8. Italy

  • 9. Russia

  • 10. California

  • 11. Brazil

  • 12. Canada

  • 13. Mexico

  • 14. Spain

  • 15. South Korea

  • (2005 estimates)

  • California Legislative Analyst's Office

  • The rankings are:[13]

  • 1. the combined United States

  • 2. Japan

  • 3. Germany

  • 4. United Kingdom

  • 5. France

  • 6. California

  • 7. Italy

  • 8. China

  • 9. Canada

  • 10. Spain

  • (2004 data)


Countries w earth observing satellites
Countries w/ Earth Observing Satellites Clear Science Goals and Detailed System Engineering

  • US (Government & Commercial)

  • Russia

  • European Space Agency

  • UK

  • France

  • Germany

  • Israel

  • Thailand

  • Singapore

  • Taiwan

China

Brazil

Korea

Japan

India

Algeria

Nigeria

Turkey


Low cost earth observing options
Low Cost Earth Observing Options Clear Science Goals and Detailed System Engineering

  • Disaster Monitoring Constellation (DMC)

    • Multi country consortium

    • Moderate resolution LANDSAT type observations

    • Low cost satellites (<$20M)

    • Each country pays for their satellite, shares data with consortium

    • Members: UK, China, Algeria, Nigeria, Turkey

    • Surrey Satellite Technology, LTD build and launch satellites

  • RapidEye

    • Commercial venture

    • High resolution (6m), multi-spectral observations

    • Targeted for agricultural applications

    • Low cost for imagery compared to current providers ($1/km2)

    • Cost to cover California ~$400K (~400K km2)


Earth observing satellites commercial
Earth Observing Satellites Clear Science Goals and Detailed System Engineering(Commercial)

  • * Disaster Monitoring Constellation

  • * IKONOS

  • * QuickBird

  • * SPOT

  • * EROS

  • * RapidEye

  • * FORMOSAT-2


Earth observing satellites nasa eos
Earth Observing Satellites Clear Science Goals and Detailed System Engineering(NASA EOS)

  • FLAGSHIP MISSIONS

  • * Terra (EOS AM-1)

  • * Aqua (EOS PM-1)

  • * Aura

  • * TRMM

  • * Jason 1

  • EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCE PATHFINDER (ESSP - PI led missions)

  • * GRACE

  • * IceSAT

  • * Cloudsat/CALIPSO

  • * OCO

  • * Aquarius


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