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NCEP Site Update WG-CSAB – Spring 2010

NCEP Site Update WG-CSAB – Spring 2010. Allan Darling Deputy Director, NCEP Central Operations Allan.Darling@noaa.gov April 7-8, 2010. Computing Capability. IBM POWER6 P575 – per-site architecture 156 POWER6 32-way Nodes 4,992 processors @ 4.7GHz 69.7 Tflops Linpack sustained

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NCEP Site Update WG-CSAB – Spring 2010

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  1. NCEP Site UpdateWG-CSAB – Spring 2010 Allan Darling Deputy Director, NCEP Central Operations Allan.Darling@noaa.gov April 7-8, 2010

  2. Computing Capability IBM POWER6 P575 – per-site architecture 156 POWER6 32-way Nodes 4,992 processors @ 4.7GHz 69.7 TflopsLinpack sustained 20 Terabytes total memory 330 Terabytes total disk space Single 13 PB tape archive Gaithersburg, MD Fairmont, WV CSAB Spring 2010

  3. CCS Upgrade • IBM Power 6 (P6) system installed and accepted at backup site - December 2008 • Operational model suite transition complete at backup site - June 2009 • IBM P6 system installed and accepted at primary site - June 2009 • Operational model suite transition complete at primary site - July 2009 • Final system testing and failover testing complete - August 2009 • Transition to operations August 12, 2009 CSAB Spring 2010

  4. Resource UtilizationPrevious production system CSAB Spring 2010

  5. Resource UtilizationP6 system CSAB Spring 2010

  6. NCEP Supercomputing Performance Growth CSAB Spring 2010

  7. Product On-Time Percentage Yearly Average 2006: 99.42% 2007: 99.70% 2008: 99.82% 2009: 99.85% CSAB Spring 2010

  8. 2010 System/Operations Initiatives Model Implementation Streamline implementation process– launches this year Production Supercomputers Additional 100TB disk storage (multicluster-GPFS) pending funding – this year New Operational Supercomputer acquisition and transition – 2012-2013 CSAB Spring 2010

  9. NWS Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Weather and Climate Outlook Guidance Threats Assessments Forecast Lead Time Forecasts Watches Warnings & Alert Coordination Benefits NCEP Model Perspective Forecast Uncertainty Years Seasons Months • Climate Forecast System 2 Week • North American Ensemble Forecast System • Global Ensemble Forecast System 1 Week • Global Forecast System • Land Surface • Ocean • Waves • Tropical Cyclone • Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Days • North American Mesoscale Hours • Rapid Update Cycle for Aviation • GFDL • HWRF Minutes • Dispersion Models for DHS Health Aviation Recreation Ecosystem Agriculture Commerce Hydropower Environment Maritime Fire Weather Life & Property Energy Planning Reservoir Control Emergency Mgmt Space Operations CSAB Spring 2010

  10. Upgrades to the Short Range Ensemble Forecast System (SREF)System Implemented 27 October 2009 • Upgrade models: WRF-NMM, WRF-ARW and RSM • Increase horizontal resolution: • ARW (45 km to 35 km) • NMM (40 km to 32 km) • RSM (40 km to 32 km) • Total Membership = 21: • Adding 4 WRF • Reduces Eta by 4 members • For the 3 RSM members: replace Zhou cloud with Ferrier • Use Global Ensemble Transform (ET) perturbations for the 10 WRF members • Increase output frequency from every 3 hr to hourly for 1st 39hr (for SPC, AWC) • Add/fix/unify variables in SREF output • radar (composite reflectivity + echo top) (for FAA) • unify PBL height diagnosis with critical Ri (aviation) • fix cloud base (aviation) • BUFR broken out into individual station time-series (SPC) model (dash) output (black solid) CSAB Spring 2010

  11. GSI 3D-VAR Implemented 15 December 2010 • Assimilate: • NOAA-19 AMSU-A/B, HIRS • RARS 1b data • NOAA-18 SBUV/2 and OMI • Improved use of GPS RO observations CSAB Spring 2010

  12. Global Ensemble Forecast SystemSystem Implemented 23 February 2010 • Upgrade horizontal resolution from T126 to T190 • 4 cycles per day, 20+1 members per cycle • Up to 384 hours (16 days) • Use 8th order horizontal diffusion for all resolutions • Improved forecast skills and ensemble spread • Add stochastic perturbation scheme to account for random model errors • Increased ensemble spread and forecast skill (reliability) • Add new variables (27 more) to pgrba files • Based on user request • From current 52 (variables) to future 79 (variables) • For NAEFS ensemble data exchange CSAB Spring 2010

  13. North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) • Collaboration between NCEP, Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC), FNMOC and Mexico Weather Service • Elements: • Demonstrate value of Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) • Engage in collaborative software development, focused on postprocessing products from an arbitrary number of forecast systems • Establish operational data transfer • Application to operational products with shared software • Continue to monitor value-added with MME strategy • Global ensemble products • NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) • operational in NAEFS • 20 members -16 days • CMC • operational in NAEFS • 20 members - 16 days • FNMOC • experimental in NAEFS • 16 members – 10 days CSAB Spring 2010

  14. Value-added by including FNMOC ensembleinto NAEFS 2m Temperature X CSAB Spring 2010

  15. GFS Plans for FY10 Scheduled June 2010 Updated GFS physics package eliminates grid-point precipitation “bombs” • Modify GFS shallow/deep convection and PBL • GSI/GFS Resolution Increase • T382 (~35km) to T574 (~28km) & 64L 24 h accumulated precip ending 12 UTC 14 July 2009 Operational GFS Observed Upgraded Physics GFS CSAB Spring 2010

  16. 2009 Implementations CSAB Spring 2010

  17. 2010 Implementations CSAB Spring 2010

  18. 2010 Implementations CSAB Spring 2010

  19. 2010 Implementations CSAB Spring 2010

  20. 2010 Implementations See http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/changes/ for change descriptions and Technical Information Notices (TINs) CSAB Spring 2010

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