The anti free lunch
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The Anti Free Lunch. Investing for retirement. The Bad and The Ugly. Broker Conflict Annuities Churning Pushing under writings Pump and dump Not fiduciaries Inflation Free lunch Manipulation Black Pools Ponzi. Mutual fund Analysis by forbes. Non-Taxable AccountTaxable Account

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The anti free lunch

The Anti Free Lunch

Investing for retirement


The bad and the ugly

The Bad and The Ugly

  • Broker Conflict

    • Annuities

    • Churning

    • Pushing under writings

    • Pump and dump

    • Not fiduciaries

  • Inflation

  • Free lunch

  • Manipulation

  • Black Pools

  • Ponzi


Mutual fund analysis by forbes

Mutual fund Analysis by forbes

  • Non-Taxable AccountTaxable Account

  • Expense Ratio .90%Expense Ratio .90%

  • Transaction Costs 1.44%Transaction Costs 1.44%

  • Cash Drag .83%Cash Drag .83%–

  • Tax Cost 1.00%

  • Total Costs 3.17%Total Costs 4.17%


The bad and the ugly 2

The Bad and the Ugly 2

  • Mutual fund success 30%

  • How clients drive bad outcomes

  • How funds come and go

  • Mutual fund survivorship ( Review of Finance )

  • 20% Lower when dropped funds are included

  • Mutual fund broker commission

  • 4.5 % – 5.75%

  • Stock picking letters ( Like a tout at the track )


Advisor and broker knowledge

Advisor and Broker Knowledge

Advisors

Asset Allocation

Style – Sector rotation

Brokers www.finra.org/Brokercheck

The company line

What makes money for them

Why are they dealing with you?


Who are the lions

Who are the Lions?

Treasury

Federal Reserve

Pension Funds

Mutual Funds

Insurance Companies

Hedge Funds


Being a mouse with lions

Being a Mouse with Lions


Real interest rates

Real interest rates


Interest and inflation

Interest and inflation


Stable interest chart

Stable Interest chart


Fixed income securities

Fixed Income Securities

Banks - Checking, CDs, Safety Box

TIPS – Use for $ 30,000 / Person Year

Corporate Bonds in IRA

Tax Free Municipal Bonds or Funds

www.cefa.com/

Diversify and Ladder


Why buy stocks

Why buy stocks?


Indirect ways to own stocks

Indirect ways to own stocks

  • Mutual funds

  • Good Managed

  • Bad Lower outcomes, tax

  • Closed end funds (Also works for bonds)

  • Good Managed

  • Buy at a discount

  • Not driven by their owners

  • Tax Efficient

  • BadSell at a discount


Indirect ways to own stocks 2

Indirect ways to own stocks 2

  • ETFs Good Tax Efficient

  • Low cost

  • Do as well as the market

  • Bad Not managed

  • Smart Beta ETFs

  • GoodTax Efficient

  • Low cost

  • May do better than the market

  • BadAdded risk of the model


Aaii recommended etf portfolio

AAII Recommended ETF Portfolio

  • As of June 30, 2014Weight YTD2013 Expense

  • Guggenheim S&P equal weight 500 RSP 40% 8.435.6.40

  • Guggenheim MidCap 400 Pure value RFV 20% 6.538.3.35

  • Guggenheim SmallCap 600 Pure Value RZV 20% 2.945.1.35

  • iShares MSCI Frontier 100 FM 10% 9.925.6.79

  • Vanguard REIT index VNQ 10% 17.7 2.4.10

  • Performance 100% 7.733.7

  • For Comparison S&P 500 SPY 100% 7.132.2.09


Company fundamentals stocks

Company Fundamentals - Stocks

Income year and quarter – Sustainable?

GS&A

Growth

Balance Sheet

Inventory - Square root rule

Debt

Sneaky debt items

Quick ratio


Company fundamentals stocks 2

Company Fundamentals – Stocks 2

Other Yahoo items

In depth at www.sec.gov

Litigation

Pension liability

Auditor Qualification of opinion

Derivatives

Capital leases

Related party transactions


Company technical analysis

Company Technical Analysis

Moving average

Look at 50 day and 200 day

Breakout of 50 above 200 is a buy signal

MACD and RSI

Positive are buy signals

Volume

Stock Technical Analysis web site www.stockta.com


Buying stocks

Buying stocks

Check the market for direction

Find candidates

Things you like

Graham Variations

Candidates from ETFs

Low P/S, P/E

Do Fundamental analysis

Use Technical Analysis for timing

Diversify


Royalty trusts

Royalty Trusts

99% Oil and Gas

Not actively managed

Earnings distributed

Depletion tax advantage

Will run out

Think of it as an energy cost insurance policy

Buy enough to pay fuel and utility bills


Reits

REITs

It represents ownership of property

Depreciation Tax advantage

Use all of the stock tools to pick

Look at their properties


Options

Options

Put is an option to sell

Use Puts as a way of buying

Never sell a put if you do not want to own the stock

Buy puts on sinking ships

Call is an option to buy

Sell covered call for income

Buy a call in place of stock for short term gains

Use both for Pending major disruption

Opportunistic


Forex www forex com

FOREX www.forex.com

Fastest way to make and loose money

Trillions change hands every day

Can be irrational both good and bad

Use Vegas money not Investment money


Investing for retirement

Gold

Does not keep up with inflation

Costs to own

Not productive

Is insurance against rapid inflation


Assent allocation

Assent Allocation

No debt: House, car etc.

Emergency Fund – Three months

20-40% Fixed when rates are market rates

50-70% Equities

5-10% Specialties

REITs, Closed end Funds, Royalty Trusts

0-2% Gambles

Do not have blinders


Investing for retirement

Risk

Civilization Collapses -Guns, ammunition and food

Inflation – Commodities, foreign stocks and bonds, manufacture of things that will appreciate and short term securities

Deflation - Longer term bonds, money and not Commodities

Expropriation – Investments outside of the US Formerly only a risk in third world countries


Rules

Rules

Understand it or don’t do it

Know the source of the money

Be bold when others are fearful and be fearful when others are bold

Never give a Broker control

Use only FINRA Brokers and SEC Advisors

Do not buy Annuities


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