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National Air Quality Forecasting Capability: Progress and Plans June 20, 2005 Paula M Davidson NWS Program Manager for Air Quality Forecasting. Outline. Background Current capabilities Progress and plans for expanded capabilities. National Air Quality Forecasting Background.

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National Air Quality Forecasting Capability: Progress and Plans June 20, 2005 Paula M Davidson

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National air quality forecasting capability progress and plans june 20 2005 paula m davidson

  • National Air Quality Forecasting Capability:

  • Progress and Plans

  • June 20, 2005

  • Paula M Davidson

  • NWS Program Manager for Air Quality Forecasting


Outline

Outline

  • Background

  • Current capabilities

  • Progress and plans for expanded capabilities


National air quality forecasting background

National Air Quality ForecastingBackground

  • Congressional Interest

    • H.R. 4 Energy Policy Act of 2002 (Senate Amendment)

  • Constituent Interest

    • State and local air quality forecasters: statement of need

    • AQ managers, public health officials, private weather sector partners urge NOAA to provide AQ forecasts

  • NOAA-EPA Agreements

    • DOC Deputy Secretary and EPA Administrator signed MOU/MOA for AQ forecasting May 6, 2003

  • Science is Mature

    • Ozone forecast models demonstrated in lab -- others in development

    • Other nations (Canada, Australia) have existing AQ forecasts; expanding capabilities to include aerosol components


National air quality forecasting current and planned capabilities

National Air Quality ForecastingCurrent and Planned Capabilities

  • Current: 1-day forecast guidance for ozone

    • Developed and deployed initially for Northeastern US, September 2004

    • Deploy Nationwide by 2008

  • Intermediate (5-7 years):

    • Develop and test capability to forecast particulate matter concentration

      • Particulate size < 2.5 microns

  • Longer range (within 10 years):

    • Extend air quality forecast range to 48-72 hours

    • Include broader range of significant pollutants


National air quality forecast capability initial operational capability ioc

AQI: Peak Aug 22

EPA Monitoring Network

National Air Quality Forecast Capability Initial Operational Capability (IOC)

  • Linked numerical prediction system

  • Operationally integrated on NCEP’s supercomputer

    • NCEP mesoscale NWP: Eta-12

    • NOAA/EPA community model for AQ: CMAQ

  • Observational Input:

    • NWS weather observations

    • EPA emissions inventory

  • Gridded forecast guidance products

  • Delivered to NWS Telecommunications Gateway and EPA for users to pull 2x daily

  • Verification basis

  • EPA ground-level

  • ozone observations

  • Customer outreach/feedback

    NCEP mesoscale NWP: Eta-12

    State & Local AQ forecasters coordinated with EPA

    Public and Private Sector AQ constituents


National air quality forecast capability major components ioc

National Air Quality Forecast CapabilityMajor Components: IOC

Weather

Observations

NWP Model

NAM/Eta-12

NOAA/NWS

NWP Post-processors

for AQ Modules

EPA’s National

Emissions Inventory:

EPA/OAQPS

AQ Module:

Emissions Preprocessor

PREMAQ

NOAA/OAR and EPA/ORD

IT /Comms

NOAA/NWS

and

EPA/OAQPS

AQ Module:

Air Quality Reactive Transport

CMAQ

NOAA/OAR and EPA/ORD


Sample aq forecast guidance www weather gov aq

Sample AQ forecast guidancewww.weather.gov/aq

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/aq


Initial operating capability operational readiness criteria summary

Initial Operating Capability: Operational Readiness Criteria Summary

C

C

C

C

C

C

C

C


Deployment criteria objective verification ncep

Deployment Criteria: Objective Verification (NCEP)

  • Summary Performance:

  • June 1- Aug 15, 2004

  • - Exceeds target

  • Reflects clean conditions

C


Expanded domain development testing sample verification 2004

Expanded Domain, Development Testing:Sample Verification, 2004

  • Limited test conditions in 2004. Generally good patterns; accuracy lower than NE US (IOC)

  • With upgrades in place, experimental (pre-deployment) testing began June, 2005


Expanding the ioc 2005 improvements

Expanding the IOC: 2005 Improvements


June 2005 expanded forecast guidance experimental eus operational ne us

June, 2005: Expanded Forecast Guidance Experimental (EUS) Operational (NE US)

weather.gov/aq-exprweather.gov/aq


National air quality forecasting capability progress and plans june 20 2005 paula m davidson

Developmental Testing: Summer 2005

Developmental: CONUS “5X”

Experimental: EUS “3x”

265

grid

cells

142

Northeast

“1x”Domain

IOC “1x”

259

grid

cells

166

CONUS “5x” Domain

EUS “3X”

East “3x” Domain

268 grid cells

442 grid cells


National air quality forecasting status june 2005 part 1

National Air Quality ForecastingStatus: June, 2005. Part 1

Current Operational Capability:

  • NE US (1x) ground-level ozone;

  • Hour-by-hour concentrations, 12km grid resolution, thru midnight next-day

  • Demonstrated test guidance accuracy, Summer 2004:

    • Greater than required 90%; only 7 days below 95%

      Current operational capability improves accuracy over developmental test season (2003):

  • Mean daytime bias reduced from ~17 to 5 ppb (2003 vs 2004)

  • Mean daytime rmse reduced from 22.8 to 14.5 ppb (2003 vs 2004)

  • Improvements ongoing: still overpredicting in daytime, poorer performance at night


National air quality forecasting status june 2005 part 2

National Air Quality ForecastingStatus: June, 2005. Part 2

Testing Expanded Capability:

  • Eastern US, ozone: Experimental (pre-deployment) testing underway

  • Nationwide deployment, ozone: target now FY08

    • Developmental testing over CONUS beginning by end of June:

    • OCONUS TBD

  • Major improvements in testing:

    • Eta-CMAQ linkage: T-profile; land-use. Moving to WRF (developmental)

    • Emissions updates: Mobile 6; extrapolations to current year emissions

    • Lateral boundary conditions: GFS ozone

    • Improvements in PBL, cloud treatment (ongoing), radiation flux

  • Testing aerosol components needed for particulate matter capabilities:

    • Planned testing at risk due to constricted supercomputing capacity

    • Development of nationwide observational plan for PM forecasting urgently needed


Transitioning research to operations phased development testing implementation

Transitioning Research to Operations: Phased Development/Testing/Implementation


Priorities national aq forecast capability

Priorities:National AQ Forecast Capability

  • Nationwide implementation of ozone forecast capability:

    • Continuing success in phased development/ testing/ implementation

  • Development of particulate matter (PM) forecasting capability:

    • Observation plan for nationwide real-time atmospheric chemistry data needed for PM forecasting

      • Especially: episodic natural sources

    • As needed, chemical data assimilation prototypes

    • Goals: Accurate, timely forecasts: effective and efficient prediction methods

      • Best science-based predictions to meet users’ needs

      • Optimize accuracy/computing resources: e.g. On-line vs off-line, ensemble

      • Demonstrated reliability: Operational, real-time verification


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