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Making sense of the 2012 transportation tax referendum
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Making Sense of the 2012 Transportation Tax Referendum. Presented by Beth S. Schapiro, PhD beth@schapirogroup.com GAMPO December 6, 2011. Evaluating Polling Data. Source of the Poll. Who conducted the survey? Who commissioned it?. Methodology. Telephone

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Making Sense of the 2012 Transportation Tax Referendum

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Making sense of the 2012 transportation tax referendum

Making Sense of the 2012 Transportation Tax Referendum

  • Presented by

  • Beth S. Schapiro, PhD

  • beth@schapirogroup.com

  • GAMPO

  • December 6, 2011


Making sense of the 2012 transportation tax referendum

  • Evaluating Polling Data


Source of the poll

Source of the Poll

  • Who conducted the survey?

  • Who commissioned it?


Methodology

Methodology

  • Telephone

    • Live callers or Interactive Voice Response (IVR)

  • Online


Voter sample

Voter Sample

  • Who was polled?

    • Likely voters, registered voters, or all adults?

    • Demographics: geography, political party identification

  • How many were polled?

    • Margin of sampling error


Poll content

Poll Content

  • What questions were asked?

  • How were they worded?


Comparison to other survey findings

Comparison to Other Survey Findings

  • Trends

  • Are these findings consistent with other recent polls?


Making sense of the 2012 transportation tax referendum

  • 2012 Situation Analysis


Voters

Voters

  • Low turnout expected

    • No major statewide campaigns

    • Will vary by region

      • Contested Congressional primaries

      • Metro Atlanta multi-million dollar campaign

  • Primary voters are generally the base voters of each party

  • Voters not in a very good mood


Political dynamics

Political Dynamics

  • Unique referendum

    • Asking voters to vote for both personal interest and regional good

    • First time project selection process

  • Lots of moving parts and political interests to be served


Making sense of the 2012 transportation tax referendum

  • What It Will Take to Win


Components of successful campaign

Components of Successful Campaign

  • Broad coalition of supporters

  • Well-organized with strong leadership, effective message, and solid campaign plan

  • Identify and communicate with targeted voters


Components of successful campaign1

Components of Successful Campaign

  • Comprehensive program for communicating with voters

    • “Earned” media, paid advertising, social media, direct mail

    • Must have transparency and complete and accurate information about projects


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