Building Adaptive Capacity for Sustainable Food Production in China. Ju Hui Lin Erda Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science Beijing, China , [email protected] Contents. Climate change and its impacts in China Policies for food production in China Food production and climate change
Ju Hui Lin Erda
Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science Beijing, China , [email protected]
A2 in China
75E 80E 85E 90E 95E 100E 105E 110E 115E 120E 125E 130E 135E
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Simulated annual increase (C) in mean temperature (Tmean) for 2071–2079 under SRES A2 and B2 scenarios from PRECIS relative to baseline (1961–1990)
Climate change in China- future
Average climate change scenarios under SRES A2 and B2 scenarios over China from PRECIS relative to baseline simulation (1961–1990)
Climate change has been found and will be not avoidable in China, What impacts have taken and will take to agricultural production by climate change?
Cold damages after mild spring that lead to damage on earlier buds and flowers
Current rice extension
Winter wheat northward
Soil polygon file
Model Shell (Reading polygon input files, writing output files,
Running model repeatedly based on the Polygon definition.)
Projected yield changes for wheat, 2080 (with CO China, What impacts have taken and will take to agricultural production by climate change?2 fertilisation effect)
Target of 95% self-sufficiency is a central tenet of China policies for grain food production
♠ involves adverse and benefit! Peak of 1.6 billion population around the year of 2030;♠ Heavy pressure for more animal food and dairy needed;♠ China joins WTO and will suffer by international products;♠ etc ……..
Challenges of food production in China
eg. Climate changing
Climate change will take extra challenges to food production in China, as well as agricultural development will also feed back to climate!Build capacity to balance agricultural SD and climate change!
Energy consumption per capita & GDP in China, as well as agricultural development will also feed back to climate!Population growth
Integratedfood production strategieswith climate change!!Case-study in Chongqing China
We don’t inherit the world from our ancestors, we borrow it from our children!