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Building Adaptive Capacity for Sustainable Food Production in China. Ju Hui Lin Erda Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science Beijing, China , [email protected] Contents. Climate change and its impacts in China Policies for food production in China Food production and climate change

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building adaptive capacity for sustainable food production in china

Building Adaptive Capacity for Sustainable Food Production in China

Ju Hui Lin Erda

Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science Beijing, China , [email protected]

contents
Contents
  • Climate change and its impacts in China
  • Policies for food production in China
  • Food production and climate change
  • Build adaptive capacity for food production
  • Case study in Chongqing China
climate change in china observed
Climate change in China- observed
  • IPCC third assessment report identify an average increase in global temperature of 0.4~0.8 ℃ in past century
  • Over the same period in China preliminary results show this temperature increase to be between 0.5~0.8 ℃, the impacts of climate change in China were different and severe.
slide4

A2

B2

75E 80E 85E 90E 95E 100E 105E 110E 115E 120E 125E 130E 135E

1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5

Simulated annual increase (C) in mean temperature (Tmean) for 2071–2079 under SRES A2 and B2 scenarios from PRECIS relative to baseline (1961–1990)

Climate change in China- future

slide5

Average climate change scenarios under SRES A2 and B2 scenarios over China from PRECIS relative to baseline simulation (1961–1990)

slide6

Climate change has been found and will be not avoidable in China, What impacts have taken and will take to agricultural production by climate change?

adverse impacts in china
Adverse Impacts in China

Cold damages after mild spring that lead to damage on earlier buds and flowers

slide8
Benefit: changes of northern boundary of areas for crops in the Northeast China under present and future warming climate

Current rice extension

Winter wheat northward

regional crop model
Regional Crop Model

Crop variety

polygon file

Input files

Soil polygon file

Socioeconomic

polygon file

PRECIS

Model Shell (Reading polygon input files, writing output files,

Running model repeatedly based on the Polygon definition.)

CERES

Output files

Biomass output

Growth output

Water output

slide10

Projected yield changes for wheat, 2080 (with CO2 fertilisation effect)

A2 rainfed

A2 irrigated

slide11
Climate change can take impacts on agriculture, which involves adverse and benefit! Can we do some to get benefit more and adverse less?
policies for food production in china
Policies for food production in China

Target of 95% self-sufficiency is a central tenet of China policies for grain food production

  • Household responsibility system
  • Grain and cotton protected price
  • Long-term farm land rent contracts
  • Return low quality grain land to green
conflicts food production and environment
Conflicts -Food production and environment
  • Water and soil erosion
  • grassland degradation
  • Salinity land
  • Water pollution
  • Crop residues
  • ………………..
slide14

♠Peak of 1.6 billion population around the year of 2030;♠ Heavy pressure for more animal food and dairy needed;♠ China joins WTO and will suffer by international products;♠ etc ……..

Challenges of food production in China

eg. Climate changing

slide15

Climate change will take extra challenges to food production in China, as well as agricultural development will also feed back to climate!Build capacity to balance agricultural SD and climate change!

build adaptive capacity for food production
Build adaptive capacity for food production
  • Public awareness
  • Technology improvement
build adaptive capacity for food production17
Build adaptive capacity for food production
  • Policy support
  • International cooperation
regions with different vulnerabilities
Regions with different Vulnerabilities

Agriculture

Coast Zone

Runoff Changes

population growth

Energy consumption per capita & GDP

Population growth

Integratedfood production strategieswith climate change!!Case-study in Chongqing China

Xiaohua Zhang

objectives of the chongqing study
Objectives of the Chongqing study
  • Develop strategies and policies that meet development priorities of Chongqing and address climate change
  • Enhance local people ability to develop effective adaptation strategies that will help to minimize the negative consequences and maximize the positive effects of changing climatic conditions on agriculture.
  • Draw lessons for applying such a strategy in other parts of China.
relative information chongqing
Relative information-chongqing
  • Chongqing is an agricultural production base of China.
  • People living in the countryside is about 24 millions which takes account about of 75% Chongqing total population.
  • The rural area accounts for more than 95% of Chongqing total territory.
climate characteristic chongqing
climate characteristic-chongqing
  • Warm winter with less sunshine and frost
  • Earlier spring with cold wave and hails
  • Hot summer with abundant sunshine and flood or drought
  • Cool autumn with less sunshine and cloudy rain
  • Drought, flood, higher temperature
agricultural development strategies
Agricultural development strategies
  • ten agricultural industrialization activities
  • One million MU high quality Chinese herbs industrialization project;
  • One million MU natural spicery industrialization project;
  • One million MU bamboo sprouts industrialization project;
  • One million MU Rapeseed industrialization project;
  • One million MU ornamental plants industrialization project;
  • One million ton citrus deep process industrialization project;
  • One million ton high quality grain deeper process industrialization project;
  • One million Dan high quality Silk worm (cocoon) industrialization project;
  • One million of grass-feeding livestock industrialization project (including diary, cattle, goat, rabbit, number)
  • One million exported high quality pig industrialization project
agricultural development priority
Agricultural development priority
  • High quality rice planting
  • Deep process industrialization
  • Animal raising
work focus on
Work focus on
  • What scientific, technological and societal responses are required to deal with the impacts of climate change on regional agriculture?
  • What climate-friendly and climate-safe technologies could be implemented in this region?
  • What role do the food industry and markets have in the development of a climate friendly and climate-safe agricultural sector.
  • How can recycling of waste and closing the nitrogen and carbon cycle between various sectors contribute to the sustainable development of the region?
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