EXTREME EVENTS AND (RE)INSURANCE. Richard J. Murnane RPI/ BIOS, 16 Jjune 2011 Researcher Colloquium on Extreme Weather Phenomena under Climate Change. (Hurricane Fabian over Bermuda. Sept. 5, 2003). Washington Post, June 15, 2011. Overview. Introductory comments
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Richard J. Murnane
RPI/BIOS, 16 Jjune 2011
Researcher Colloquium onExtreme Weather Phenomena under Climate Change
(Hurricane Fabian over Bermuda. Sept. 5, 2003)
US and Europe premium: ~$1.4 trillionGlobal ~$1.8 trillion
Swiss Re, Sigma 3/2009
In 2010 dollars:
Total ~$350 billion2010 losses ~$43billion
Swiss Re Sigma, 1/2011
Aggregate of US, Canada, France, Germany, UK, and Japan
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004*
Current investment income
Swiss Re, Sigma 2/2005
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Guy Carpenter, 2011
Power Dissipation Index
YearChanges In Hurricane Power?
“… future warming may lead to an upward trend in tropical cyclone destructive potential, and – taking into account an increasing coastal population – a substantial increase in hurricane-related losses in the twenty-first century.”
K. Emanuel, Nature, 2005.
“Subjective measurements and variable procedures make existing tropical cyclone databases insufficiently reliable to detect trends in the frequency of extreme cyclones.”
Landsea et al., Science, 2006.
“… the increase of [vertical wind shear] has been historically associated with diminished hurricane activity and intensity. A suite of state-of-the-art global climate model[s] project… [s]ubstantial increases in tropical Atlantic and East Pacific shear …”
Vecchi and Soden, GRL, 2007.
“We find significant upward trends for wind speed quantiles above the 70th percentile…”
Elsner et al., Nature, 2008
Goldenberg et al., 2001