Tim Drum Senior Meteorologist WeatherBug Professional Services [email protected] 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast. April 2, 2009. Hurricane Ike, NOAA. Review of 2008 Season Forecast. 2008 Season Forecast. Forecast Numbers: 10-12 named Storms
Ana Bill ClaudetteDanny Erika FredGrace Henri IdaJoaquin Kate LarryMindy Nicholas OdettePeter Rose SamTeresa Victor Wanda2009 Atlantic Basin Names
Slightly cooler than average
Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation
La Nina Example - 1988
El Nino Example - 1997
Going back to 1950, look at a weak La Nina followed by a neutral or weak El Nino.
Establishing Data Set Method
Weak La Nina To Neutral Years(ONI) neutral or weak El Nino.
Weak La Nina + neutral or weak El Nino.WarmAMO Years
Played a significant role in mitigating tropical cyclone development in 2006 & 2007 and part of 2008.
Near average rainfall forecast over the northern Sahel region may lead to dust “outbreaks” again, this season.
2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast second half of the season.