Tim Drum Senior Meteorologist WeatherBug Professional Services [email protected] 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast. April 2, 2009. Hurricane Ike, NOAA. Review of 2008 Season Forecast. 2008 Season Forecast. Forecast Numbers: 10-12 named Storms
WeatherBug Professional Services
April 2, 2009
Hurricane Ike, NOAA
2008 Season Forecast
SST Anomalies – Atlantic 3/28/09
Slightly cooler than average
Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation
La Nina Example - 1988
El Nino Example - 1997
Latest Weekly ENSO SST Anomaly
Going back to 1950, look at a weak La Nina followed by a neutral or weak El Nino.
Establishing Data Set Method
Weak La Nina To Neutral Years(ONI)
Weak La Nina + WarmAMO Years
Played a significant role in mitigating tropical cyclone development in 2006 & 2007 and part of 2008.
Near average rainfall forecast over the northern Sahel region may lead to dust “outbreaks” again, this season.
2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast