2009 atlantic hurricane season forecast
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Tim Drum Senior Meteorologist WeatherBug Professional Services [email protected] 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast. April 2, 2009. Hurricane Ike, NOAA. Review of 2008 Season Forecast. 2008 Season Forecast. Forecast Numbers: 10-12 named Storms

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2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

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2009 atlantic hurricane season forecast

Tim Drum

Senior Meteorologist

WeatherBug Professional Services

[email protected]

2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

April 2, 2009

Hurricane Ike, NOAA


Review of 2008 season forecast

Review of 2008Season Forecast


2009 atlantic hurricane season forecast

2008 Season Forecast

Forecast Numbers:

  • 10-12 named Storms

  • 4-6 Tropical Storms should reach Hurricane status

  • 2-4 Hurricanes of Major Category III classification

  • Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTCA) near 100% of normal

16

8

5

164%


2008 atlantic hurricane season

2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season


General overview

GeneralOverview


2009 atlantic basin names

AnaBillClaudetteDannyErikaFredGraceHenriIdaJoaquinKateLarryMindyNicholasOdettePeterRoseSamTeresaVictorWanda

2009 Atlantic Basin Names


Atlantic basin t c distribution

Atlantic Basin T.C. Distribution


Atlantic basin averages

Atlantic Basin Averages


Current state of the atlantic basin

Current State of theAtlantic Basin


2009 atlantic hurricane season forecast

SST Anomalies – Atlantic 3/28/09

Slightly cooler than average


Still midway through projected warm ocean phase that is expected to last 10 more years

Still midway through projected WARM ocean phase that is expected to last ~ 10 more years.

Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation


Current state of epac enso cycle

Current State of EPACENSO Cycle


Enso cycle

ENSO Cycle

La Nina Example - 1988

El Nino Example - 1997


2009 atlantic hurricane season forecast

Latest Weekly ENSO SST Anomaly

???


Forecast sst anomalies epac

Forecast SST Anomalies - EPAC


Climatology of comparable seasons

Climatology of Comparable Seasons


2009 atlantic hurricane season forecast

Going back to 1950, look at a weak La Nina followed by a neutral or weak El Nino.

Establishing Data Set Method

  • Focus on the seasons from above that also occurred during the “warm” phase of the AMO


2009 atlantic hurricane season forecast

Weak La Nina To Neutral Years(ONI)

Averages:

  • 10.5 Storms (10.1)

  • 6.2 Hurricanes (5.9)

  • 2.5 Major Hurricanes (2.5)


2009 atlantic hurricane season forecast

Weak La Nina + WarmAMO Years

Averages:

  • 11.2 Storms (10.1)

  • 6.6 Hurricanes (5.9)

  • 3.6 Major Hurricanes (2.5)


Other factors to consider

Other Factorsto Consider


African dust

African Dust

Played a significant role in mitigating tropical cyclone development in 2006 & 2007 and part of 2008.


African rainfall

African Rainfall

Near average rainfall forecast over the northern Sahel region may lead to dust “outbreaks” again, this season.


The forecast

The Forecast


Summary of forecast points

  • La Nina conditions in EPAC to weaken, especially for the second half of the season.

  • Statistics from previous near neutral ENSO + AMO years weigh heavily toward reduced activity from last year.

Summary of Forecast Points

  • Conditions over western Africa mean additional dust outbreaks over the central and eastern tropical Atlantic.


2009 atlantic hurricane season forecast

2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

  • 11-13 named storms (10.1 avg.)

  • 6-8 hurricanes (5.9 avg.)

  • 3-4 major hurricanes: winds 111+ mph (2.5 avg.)

  • Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTCA):

  • near 130% of normal.


Cme group hurricane contracts

CME Group HurricaneContracts

  • 3 Different types of Hurricane Contracts

  • 6 Different locations for Hurricane Contracts

    • Event Futures, Options, Event Binary Options

      • Based upon named Hurricanes making landfall anywhere in the Eastern US or reaching the CHI-Cat-in-a-box Galveston-Mobile area

    • Seasonal Futures, Options, Seasonal Binary Options

      • Based upon the accumulated CHI value for allHurricanesthat make landfall within a specific season

    • Seasonal Maximum Futures, Options, Seasonal Maximum Binary Options, Seasonal Maximum 2nd Event Binary Options

      • Based on the CHI value of thelargest Hurricane to make landfall within a specific season


Cme group hurricane contract locations

CME Group HurricaneContract Locations

  • Gulf Coast (Brownsville TX to AL/FL Border)

  • Florida (AL/FL Border to Fernandina Beach, FL)

  • Southern Atlantic (Fernandina Beach, FL to NC/VA Border)

    Coast

  • Northern Atlantic (NC/VA Border to Eastport, ME)

    Coast

  • Eastern US (Brownsville, TX to Eastport, ME)

  • Gulf & Florida (Brownsville, TX to Fernandina Beach, FL)

  • CHI-Cat-in-a-Box (Galveston-Mobile area)


Cme group hurricane contract specifications

CME Group Hurricane Contract Specifications

Standard Contracts:

  • Contract: $1000 times the respective CME Hurricane Index

  • Tick Size: 0.1 CHI Index Point

  • Tick Value: 0.1 CHI Index point which equals $100

  • Hours: Sunday through Thursday from 5.00p.m. to 3.15p.m. Chicago time

  • Available: Throughout the hurricane season from January 1 through December 31

    Binary Contracts:

  • Contract: $10,000 times the respective CME Hurricane Index

  • Tick Value: 0.01 CHI Index point which equals $1

  • Hours: Sunday through Thursday from 5.00p.m. to 3.15p.m. Chicago time

  • Available: Throughout the hurricane season from January 1 through December 31


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