2009 atlantic hurricane season forecast
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Tim Drum Senior Meteorologist WeatherBug Professional Services [email protected] 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast. April 2, 2009. Hurricane Ike, NOAA. Review of 2008 Season Forecast. 2008 Season Forecast. Forecast Numbers: 10-12 named Storms

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2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

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Tim Drum

Senior Meteorologist

WeatherBug Professional Services

[email protected]

2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

April 2, 2009

Hurricane Ike, NOAA


Review of 2008Season Forecast


2008 Season Forecast

Forecast Numbers:

  • 10-12 named Storms

  • 4-6 Tropical Storms should reach Hurricane status

  • 2-4 Hurricanes of Major Category III classification

  • Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTCA) near 100% of normal

16

8

5

164%


2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season


GeneralOverview


AnaBillClaudetteDannyErikaFredGraceHenriIdaJoaquinKateLarryMindyNicholasOdettePeterRoseSamTeresaVictorWanda

2009 Atlantic Basin Names


Atlantic Basin T.C. Distribution


Atlantic Basin Averages


Current State of theAtlantic Basin


SST Anomalies – Atlantic 3/28/09

Slightly cooler than average


Still midway through projected WARM ocean phase that is expected to last ~ 10 more years.

Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation


Current State of EPACENSO Cycle


ENSO Cycle

La Nina Example - 1988

El Nino Example - 1997


Latest Weekly ENSO SST Anomaly

???


Forecast SST Anomalies - EPAC


Climatology of Comparable Seasons


Going back to 1950, look at a weak La Nina followed by a neutral or weak El Nino.

Establishing Data Set Method

  • Focus on the seasons from above that also occurred during the “warm” phase of the AMO


Weak La Nina To Neutral Years(ONI)

Averages:

  • 10.5 Storms (10.1)

  • 6.2 Hurricanes (5.9)

  • 2.5 Major Hurricanes (2.5)


Weak La Nina + WarmAMO Years

Averages:

  • 11.2 Storms (10.1)

  • 6.6 Hurricanes (5.9)

  • 3.6 Major Hurricanes (2.5)


Other Factorsto Consider


African Dust

Played a significant role in mitigating tropical cyclone development in 2006 & 2007 and part of 2008.


African Rainfall

Near average rainfall forecast over the northern Sahel region may lead to dust “outbreaks” again, this season.


The Forecast


  • La Nina conditions in EPAC to weaken, especially for the second half of the season.

  • Statistics from previous near neutral ENSO + AMO years weigh heavily toward reduced activity from last year.

Summary of Forecast Points

  • Conditions over western Africa mean additional dust outbreaks over the central and eastern tropical Atlantic.


2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

  • 11-13 named storms (10.1 avg.)

  • 6-8 hurricanes (5.9 avg.)

  • 3-4 major hurricanes: winds 111+ mph (2.5 avg.)

  • Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTCA):

  • near 130% of normal.


CME Group HurricaneContracts

  • 3 Different types of Hurricane Contracts

  • 6 Different locations for Hurricane Contracts

    • Event Futures, Options, Event Binary Options

      • Based upon named Hurricanes making landfall anywhere in the Eastern US or reaching the CHI-Cat-in-a-box Galveston-Mobile area

    • Seasonal Futures, Options, Seasonal Binary Options

      • Based upon the accumulated CHI value for allHurricanesthat make landfall within a specific season

    • Seasonal Maximum Futures, Options, Seasonal Maximum Binary Options, Seasonal Maximum 2nd Event Binary Options

      • Based on the CHI value of thelargest Hurricane to make landfall within a specific season


CME Group HurricaneContract Locations

  • Gulf Coast (Brownsville TX to AL/FL Border)

  • Florida (AL/FL Border to Fernandina Beach, FL)

  • Southern Atlantic (Fernandina Beach, FL to NC/VA Border)

    Coast

  • Northern Atlantic (NC/VA Border to Eastport, ME)

    Coast

  • Eastern US (Brownsville, TX to Eastport, ME)

  • Gulf & Florida (Brownsville, TX to Fernandina Beach, FL)

  • CHI-Cat-in-a-Box (Galveston-Mobile area)


CME Group Hurricane Contract Specifications

Standard Contracts:

  • Contract: $1000 times the respective CME Hurricane Index

  • Tick Size: 0.1 CHI Index Point

  • Tick Value: 0.1 CHI Index point which equals $100

  • Hours: Sunday through Thursday from 5.00p.m. to 3.15p.m. Chicago time

  • Available: Throughout the hurricane season from January 1 through December 31

    Binary Contracts:

  • Contract: $10,000 times the respective CME Hurricane Index

  • Tick Value: 0.01 CHI Index point which equals $1

  • Hours: Sunday through Thursday from 5.00p.m. to 3.15p.m. Chicago time

  • Available: Throughout the hurricane season from January 1 through December 31


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