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Tim Drum Senior Meteorologist WeatherBug Professional Services [email protected] 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast. April 2, 2009. Hurricane Ike, NOAA. Review of 2008 Season Forecast. 2008 Season Forecast. Forecast Numbers: 10-12 named Storms

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2009 atlantic hurricane season forecast

Tim Drum

Senior Meteorologist

WeatherBug Professional Services

[email protected]

2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

April 2, 2009

Hurricane Ike, NOAA


Review of 2008 season forecast
Review of 2008Season Forecast


2008 Season Forecast

Forecast Numbers:

  • 10-12 named Storms

  • 4-6 Tropical Storms should reach Hurricane status

  • 2-4 Hurricanes of Major Category III classification

  • Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTCA) near 100% of normal

16

8

5

164%



General overview
GeneralOverview


2009 atlantic basin names

Ana Bill ClaudetteDanny Erika FredGrace Henri IdaJoaquin Kate LarryMindy Nicholas OdettePeter Rose SamTeresa Victor Wanda

2009 Atlantic Basin Names




Current state of the atlantic basin
Current State of theAtlantic Basin


SST Anomalies – Atlantic 3/28/09

Slightly cooler than average


Still midway through projected warm ocean phase that is expected to last 10 more years
Still midway through projected WARM ocean phase that is expected to last ~ 10 more years.

Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation



Enso cycle
ENSO Cycle

La Nina Example - 1988

El Nino Example - 1997





Going back to 1950, look at a weak La Nina followed by a neutral or weak El Nino.

Establishing Data Set Method

  • Focus on the seasons from above that also occurred during the “warm” phase of the AMO


Weak La Nina To Neutral Years(ONI) neutral or weak El Nino.

Averages:

  • 10.5 Storms (10.1)

  • 6.2 Hurricanes (5.9)

  • 2.5 Major Hurricanes (2.5)


Weak La Nina + neutral or weak El Nino.WarmAMO Years

Averages:

  • 11.2 Storms (10.1)

  • 6.6 Hurricanes (5.9)

  • 3.6 Major Hurricanes (2.5)


Other factors to consider
Other Factors neutral or weak El Nino.to Consider


African dust
African Dust neutral or weak El Nino.

Played a significant role in mitigating tropical cyclone development in 2006 & 2007 and part of 2008.


African rainfall
African Rainfall neutral or weak El Nino.

Near average rainfall forecast over the northern Sahel region may lead to dust “outbreaks” again, this season.


The forecast
The Forecast neutral or weak El Nino.


Summary of forecast points

  • Statistics from previous near neutral ENSO + AMO years weigh heavily toward reduced activity from last year.

Summary of Forecast Points

  • Conditions over western Africa mean additional dust outbreaks over the central and eastern tropical Atlantic.


2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast second half of the season.

  • 11-13 named storms (10.1 avg.)

  • 6-8 hurricanes (5.9 avg.)

  • 3-4 major hurricanes: winds 111+ mph (2.5 avg.)

  • Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTCA):

  • near 130% of normal.


Cme group hurricane contracts
CME Group Hurricane second half of the season.Contracts

  • 3 Different types of Hurricane Contracts

  • 6 Different locations for Hurricane Contracts

    • Event Futures, Options, Event Binary Options

      • Based upon named Hurricanes making landfall anywhere in the Eastern US or reaching the CHI-Cat-in-a-box Galveston-Mobile area

    • Seasonal Futures, Options, Seasonal Binary Options

      • Based upon the accumulated CHI value for allHurricanesthat make landfall within a specific season

    • Seasonal Maximum Futures, Options, Seasonal Maximum Binary Options, Seasonal Maximum 2nd Event Binary Options

      • Based on the CHI value of thelargest Hurricane to make landfall within a specific season


Cme group hurricane contract locations
CME Group Hurricane second half of the season.Contract Locations

  • Gulf Coast (Brownsville TX to AL/FL Border)

  • Florida (AL/FL Border to Fernandina Beach, FL)

  • Southern Atlantic (Fernandina Beach, FL to NC/VA Border)

    Coast

  • Northern Atlantic (NC/VA Border to Eastport, ME)

    Coast

  • Eastern US (Brownsville, TX to Eastport, ME)

  • Gulf & Florida (Brownsville, TX to Fernandina Beach, FL)

  • CHI-Cat-in-a-Box (Galveston-Mobile area)


Cme group hurricane contract specifications
CME Group Hurricane Contract Specifications second half of the season.

Standard Contracts:

  • Contract: $1000 times the respective CME Hurricane Index

  • Tick Size: 0.1 CHI Index Point

  • Tick Value: 0.1 CHI Index point which equals $100

  • Hours: Sunday through Thursday from 5.00p.m. to 3.15p.m. Chicago time

  • Available: Throughout the hurricane season from January 1 through December 31

    Binary Contracts:

  • Contract: $10,000 times the respective CME Hurricane Index

  • Tick Value: 0.01 CHI Index point which equals $1

  • Hours: Sunday through Thursday from 5.00p.m. to 3.15p.m. Chicago time

  • Available: Throughout the hurricane season from January 1 through December 31


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