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Market Opportunity Scan: Bachelor’s and Master’s in Interdisciplinary Fields

Market Opportunity Scan: Bachelor’s and Master’s in Interdisciplinary Fields Prepared for The Evergreen State College August 2019.

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Market Opportunity Scan: Bachelor’s and Master’s in Interdisciplinary Fields

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  1. Market Opportunity Scan: Bachelor’s and Master’s in Interdisciplinary Fields Prepared for The Evergreen State College August 2019 In the following report, Hanover presents the results of a market opportunity scan of bachelor’s and master’s degrees in interdisciplinary fields in Washington and the Far West region, specifically highlighting potential fields for program development or expansion at The Evergreen State College. www.hanoverresearch.com

  2. Table of Contents Market Opportunity Scan: Bachelor’s and Master’s Degrees in Interdisciplinary Fields

  3. Executive Summary Market Opportunity Scan: Bachelor’s and Master’s Degrees in Interdisciplinary Fields Recommendations Based on an analysis of regional and state bachelor’s and master’s degree completion trends and labor market outlook, Hanover Research recommends that The Evergreen State College (Evergreen): • Develop a new bachelor’s field of study in public health and add interdisciplinary classes in computer science and digital communication and media/multimedia to existing fields of study at the bachelor’s level. These fields are all associated with strong student and labor demand in both Washington and the Far West region. Evergreen should integrate existing computer science classes to other paths of study, such as environmental studies or integrated biology and chemistry, to capitalize on student demand for the computer science field and develop more interdisciplinary programming. Evergreen should also consider developing a new field of study in public health and adding more digital communication elements to its Media Arts and Studies path of study. • Explore developing new master’s degree programs in computer science, psychology, and organizational leadership. Computer science and organizational leadership are associated with strong student and labor demand at both the state and regional levels, while psychology has strong student and labor demand at the regional level. Evergreen already offers bachelor’s fields of study in computer science and psychology and should consider expanding these fields of study into master’s programs to further meet student demand. Evergreen should also explore developing a new interdisciplinary master’s program in organizational leadership, potentially incorporating aspects of Evergreen’s unique MPA concentration in tribal governance into the curriculum. • Consider reevaluating class offerings within the Visual Arts and Integrated Biology and Chemistry paths of study. Several of the fields represented by these paths of study are experiencing challenging student and labor market demand indicators in both Washington and the Far West region. Evergreen should look for ways to refine the curriculum in these paths of study based on current trends in student and labor market demands, potentially by adding interdisciplinary classes in high growth fields to these pathways. Examples of this might include adding classes in digital art and visual communications fields to the Visual Arts pathway and classes in biochemistry, public health, and atmospheric sciences to the Integrated Biology and Chemistry pathway.

  4. Introduction Market Opportunity Scan: Bachelor’s and Master’s Degrees in Interdisciplinary Fields Introduction To assist Evergreen as it develops and expands its paths of study at both the bachelor’s and master’s level, Hanover Research conducted a market opportunity scan to determine how student and labor market indicators may affect different academic fields’ viability. This scan focuses on bachelor’s and master’s degrees in liberal arts fields in both the state of Washington and the Far West region. The following slides provide a broad overview of opportunities for pathway expansion or development, based upon student degree completions trends and occupational projections. These data speak to broad market demand for the range of programs under examination. This research is a first step in exploring high growth, potentially emerging, and established programs that Evergreen may wish to further explore through in-depth market analysis studies. Research Questions

  5. Methodology Market Opportunity Scan: Bachelor’s and Master’s Degrees in Interdisciplinary Fields Student and Labor Market Demand Quadrants Hanover assesses the viability of new programs by organizing degree programs and associated occupations into four categories (shown below) both regionally and in the state of Washington. In particular, the following pages highlight high growth, (potentially) emerging, and low growth liberal arts fields in both Washington and the Far West region that are not currently offered by Evergreen, as well as specific details on fields that are similar to the paths of study that Evergreen currently offers. Approach to Recommendations After assessing quadrants for student degree completions and employment projections individually, Hanover compares student demand and labor market demand for each program to determine an overall recommendation (e.g., high growth programs aligned with high growth occupations lead to a recommendation of “develop”). Above Average Growth Below Average Volume Above Average Volume Below Average Growth

  6. Key Findings – Bachelor’s Degrees Market Opportunity Scan: Bachelor’s and Master’s Degrees in Interdisciplinary Fields • Key Findings • Computer science, digital communication and media/multimedia, and public health are all high growth fields in both Washington and the Far West region. These fields were identified as having strong student demand and strong labor market demand at the bachelor’s level in both geographic areas. Demand for bachelor’s degrees in computer science is especially strong, with an annualized growth rate of 23.6 percent between 2013 and 2017 and projected employment growth of 49.6 percent in the state of Washington. Given the strong demand for computer science-related fields, Evergreen should consider expanding its interdisciplinary computer science classes to include relevant topics, such as website design and related communication technologies, within a few of its existing paths of study to appeal to more prospective students. Evergreen will also want to consider adding more digital communication elements to its Media Arts and Studies path of study and developing a public health field of study. • Both atmospheric sciences and meteorology and geophysics and seismology are potentially emerging fields at the state and regional levels. In the state of Washington, three institutions offer a bachelor’s programs in geophysics and seismology, and only two institutions offer a program in atmospheric sciences and meteorology at the bachelor’s level. Evergreen already offers fields of study in physics and geology and should explore also offering a more interdisciplinary field of study in geophysics and seismology to capitalize on this market gap. Evergreen should also consider adding interdisciplinary classes in atmospheric sciences and meteorology to its Environmental Studies and Integrative Biology and Chemistry paths of study. • Many arts fields are experiencing challenging student and labor market demand at both the state and regional levels. At the bachelor’s level, visual and performing arts, photography, and fashion/apparel design all have both low student demand and low labor market demand in Washington and the Far West region. Evergreen may need to reevaluate the curriculum in its Visual Arts path of study and consider adding interdisciplinary classes in high growth fields, such as design and visual communications, or emerging fields, such as sculptures, to better meet student and labor market demand.

  7. Key Findings – Master’s Degrees Market Opportunity Scan: Bachelor’s and Master’s Degrees in Interdisciplinary Fields • Key Findings • Computer science and organizational leadership are associated with strong student and labor demand at both the state and regional levels. Considering the strong student and labor demand in both geographic areas, these fields represent opportunities for program development at Evergreen. Notably, student demand for master’s degree programs in organizational leadership has increased by 255.1 percent in the state of Washington climbing from one conferral in 2013 to 204 in 2017 along with 40.9 percent growth rate in the Far West. Evergreen already offers computer science as a field of study at the bachelor’s level and should explore offering a master’s program in this high growth field. Evergreen should also consider developing a new master’s program in organizational leadership that builds on components from its MPA degree, including its unique tribal governance concentration. • At the regional level, general psychology, school psychology, and industrial and organizational psychology are all high growth master’s fields. At the state level, general psychology and school psychology are both mixed demand fields, while industrial and organizational psychology is a high growth field. Low student demand in general psychology at the state level is the result of a large drop in degree conferrals at only one institution (Antioch University – Seattle); almost all other institutions in the state have seen an increase in general psychology degree conferrals at the master’s level. Similarly, only two institutions in Washington currently offer master’s programs in school psychology (Central Washington University and Eastern Washington University), indicating that the decrease in student demand at the state level may not fully represent student demand for this field. Given regional student and labor demand, Evergreen should consider expanding its existing bachelor’s field of study in psychology to offer a master’s program. • Evergreen’s current master’s degree programs are associated with mixed student and labor demand. Although public administration is a high growth field at the state level, all three of Evergreen’s current master’s degree programs have mixed student and labor demand at the regional level. Evergreen may want to reevaluate its Master of Environmental Studies and Master in Teaching programs and look for ways to refine the curriculum in these programs based on current trends in student and labor market demand.

  8. State Analysis: Bachelor’s Degrees

  9. State Bachelor’s Programs Overview – High Growth Fields Market Opportunity Scan: Bachelor’s and Master’s Degrees in Interdisciplinary Fields Student degree completion trends and employment projections indicate there are 27 high growth fields at the bachelor’s levelin Washington (i.e., above average student and labor market demand growth and volume). High growth fields typically offer promising opportunities for program expansion or new program development. The chart below shows 18 of these high growth fields; please refer to the data supplement for a full list of fields. • Source: IPEDS and Projections Central • Note: The size of the bubble is proportional to the volume of student degree completions in 2017

  10. State Bachelor’s Programs Overview – Emerging Fields Market Opportunity Scan: Bachelor’s and Master’s Degrees in Interdisciplinary Fields Student degree completion trends and employment projections indicate there are 18 potentially emerging fields at the bachelor’s level in Washington (i.e., above average student and labor market demand growth but below average completion and jobs volume). Emerging fields typically offer promising opportunities for program expansion or new program development. The chart below shows 12 of these emerging fields; please refer to the data supplement for a full list of fields. • Source: IPEDS and Projections Central • Note: The size of the bubble is proportional to the volume of student degree completions in 2017

  11. State Bachelor’s Programs Overview – Low Growth Fields Market Opportunity Scan: Bachelor’s and Master’s Degrees in Interdisciplinary Fields Student degree completion trends and employment projections indicate there are 36 low growth fields at the bachelor’s levelin Washington (i.e., below average student and labor market growth and volume). The chart below shows 14 of these low growth fields; please refer to the data supplement for a full list of fields. • Source: IPEDS and Projections Central • Note: The size of the bubble is proportional to the volume of student degree completions in 2017

  12. State Bachelor’s Programs Overview – Pathways Offered at The Evergreen State College Market Opportunity Scan: Bachelor’s and Master’s Degrees in Interdisciplinary Fields Student degree completion trends and employment projections in the state of Washington for degree fields similar to the paths of study offered at Evergreen indicate that Evergreen currently offers two high growth fields,one emerging field,two low growth fields,andsix mixed-growth fieldsat the bachelor’s level. • Source: IPEDS and Projections Central • Note: The size of the bubble is proportional to the volume of student degree completions in 2017

  13. Regional Analysis: Bachelor’s Degrees

  14. Regional Bachelor’s Programs Overview – High Growth Fields Market Opportunity Scan: Bachelor’s and Master’s Degrees in Interdisciplinary Fields Student degree completion trends and employment projections indicate there are 23 high growth fields at the bachelor’s levelin the Far West region (i.e., above average student and labor market demand growth and volume). High growth fields typically offer promising opportunities for program expansion or new program development. The chart below shows 17 of these high growth fields; please refer to the data supplement for a full list of fields. • Source: IPEDS and Projections Central • Note: The size of the bubble is proportional to the volume of student degree completions in 2017

  15. Regional Bachelor’s Programs Overview – Emerging Fields Market Opportunity Scan: Bachelor’s and Master’s Degrees in Interdisciplinary Fields Student degree completion trends and employment projections indicate there are 36 potentially emerging fields at the bachelor’s level in the Far West region (i.e., above average student and labor market demand growth but below average completion and jobs volume). Emerging fields typically offer promising opportunities for program expansion or new program development. The chart below shows 14 of these emerging fields; please refer to the data supplement for a full list of fields. • Source: IPEDS and Projections Central • Note: The size of the bubble is proportional to the volume of student degree completions in 2017

  16. Regional Bachelor’s Programs Overview – Low Growth Fields Market Opportunity Scan: Bachelor’s and Master’s Degrees in Interdisciplinary Fields Student degree completion trends and employment projections indicate there are 49 low growth fields at the bachelor’s levelin the Far West region (i.e., below average student and labor market growth and volume). The chart below shows 15 of these low growth fields; please refer to the data supplement for a full list of fields. • Source: IPEDS and Projections Central • Note: The size of the bubble is proportional to the volume of student degree completions in 2017

  17. Regional Bachelor’s Programs Overview – Pathways Offered at The Evergreen State College Market Opportunity Scan: Bachelor’s and Master’s Degrees in Interdisciplinary Fields Student degree completion trends and employment projections in the Far West region for degree fields similar to the paths of study offered at Evergreen indicate that Evergreen currently offers one established field,one low growth field,and10 mixed-growth fieldsat the bachelor’s level. • Source: IPEDS and Projections Central • Note: The size of the bubble is proportional to the volume of student degree completions in 2017

  18. State Analysis: Master’s Degrees

  19. State Master’s Programs Overview – High Growth Fields Market Opportunity Scan: Bachelor’s and Master’s Degrees in Interdisciplinary Fields Student degree completion trends and employment projections indicate there are 19 high growth fields at the master’s levelin Washington (i.e., above average student and labor market demand growth and volume). High growth fields typically offer promising opportunities for program expansion or new program development. The chart below shows 16 of these high growth fields; please refer to the data supplement for a full list of fields. • Source: IPEDS and Projections Central • Note: The size of the bubble is proportional to the volume of student degree completions in 2017

  20. State Master’s Programs Overview – Emerging Fields Market Opportunity Scan: Bachelor’s and Master’s Degrees in Interdisciplinary Fields Student degree completion trends and employment projections indicate there are 10 potentially emerging fields at the master’s level in Washington (i.e., above average student and labor market demand growth but below average completion and jobs volume). Emerging fields typically offer promising opportunities for program expansion or new program development. • Source: IPEDS and Projections Central • Note: The size of the bubble is proportional to the volume of student degree completions in 2017

  21. State Master’s Programs Overview – Low Growth Fields Market Opportunity Scan: Bachelor’s and Master’s Degrees in Interdisciplinary Fields Student degree completion trends and employment projections indicate there are 18 low growth fields at the master’s levelin Washington (i.e., below average student and labor market growth and volume). Please refer to the data supplement for a full list of fields. The chart below shows 8 of these low growth fields; please refer to the data supplement for a full list of fields. • Source: IPEDS and Projections Central • Note: The size of the bubble is proportional to the volume of student degree completions in 2017

  22. State Master’s Programs Overview – Pathways Offered at The Evergreen State College Market Opportunity Scan: Bachelor’s and Master’s Degrees in Interdisciplinary Fields Student degree completion trends and employment projections in the state of Washington indicate that Evergreen currently offers one high growth field andtwo mixed-growth fieldsat the master’s level. • Source: IPEDS and Projections Central • Note: The size of the bubble is proportional to the volume of student degree completions in 2017

  23. Regional Analysis: Master’s Degrees

  24. Regional Master’s Programs Overview – High Growth Fields Market Opportunity Scan: Bachelor’s and Master’s Degrees in Interdisciplinary Fields Student degree completion trends and employment projections indicate there are 21 high growth fields at the master’s levelin the Far West region (i.e., above average student and labor market demand growth and volume). High growth fields typically offer promising opportunities for program expansion or new program development. The chart below shows 15 of these high growth fields; please refer to the data supplement for a full list of fields. • Source: IPEDS and Projections Central • Note: The size of the bubble is proportional to the volume of student degree completions in 2017

  25. Regional Master’s Programs Overview – Emerging Fields Market Opportunity Scan: Bachelor’s and Master’s Degrees in Interdisciplinary Fields Student degree completion trends and employment projections indicate there are 43 potentially emerging fields at the master’s level in the Far West region (i.e., above average student and labor market demand growth but below average completion and jobs volume). Emerging fields typically offer promising opportunities for program expansion or new program development. The chart below shows 13 of these emerging fields; please refer to the data supplement for a full list of fields. • Source: IPEDS and Projections Central • Note: The size of the bubble is proportional to the volume of student degree completions in 2017

  26. Regional Master’s Programs Overview – Low Growth Fields Market Opportunity Scan: Bachelor’s and Master’s Degrees in Interdisciplinary Fields Student degree completion trends and employment projections indicate there are 51 low growth fields at the master’s levelin the Far West region (i.e., below average student and labor market growth and volume). The chart below shows 9 of these low growth fields; please refer to the data supplement for a full list of fields. • Source: IPEDS and Projections Central • Note: The size of the bubble is proportional to the volume of student degree completions in 2017

  27. Regional Master’s Programs Overview – Pathways Offered at The Evergreen State College Market Opportunity Scan: Bachelor’s and Master’s Degrees in Interdisciplinary Fields Student degree completion trends and employment projections in the Far West region indicate that Evergreen currently offers three mixed-growth fieldsat the master’s level. • Source: IPEDS and Projections Central • Note: The size of the bubble is proportional to the volume of student degree completions in 2017

  28. State Labor Market – Industry Distribution Market Opportunity Scan: Bachelor’s and Master’s Degrees in Interdisciplinary Fields Top Six Sectors of Industry in Washington by Job Volume, 2019 State Employment Share by Industry Sector, 2019 Source: JobsEQ 28

  29. State Labor Market – Projected Occupation Gaps Over 10 Years Market Opportunity Scan: Bachelor’s and Master’s Degrees in Interdisciplinary Fields Potential Occupation Gaps in Washington, Knowledge Occupations Only Note: Average salary for the SOC code cluster is shown in parentheses. Gray SOC clusters in the chart above indicate a lesser risk of shortage or oversupply. Source: JobsEQ 29

  30. Appendix Market Opportunity Scan: Bachelor’s and Master’s Degrees in Interdisciplinary Fields Student Demand Methodology • Hanover uses the most recent five years of completions data (2013-2017) from the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) to estimate student demand for specific degree programs. The NCES uses a taxonomic system of numeric codes to classify postsecondary academic programs, known as the Classification of Instructional Programs (CIP) system. Definitions for each CIP code can be located at the NCES’ CIP user site. • All award conferral data presented in this report were drawn from the NCES’s Integrated Postsecondary Education Data Center (IPEDS). • Note: When interpreting completions data, some considerations should be taken into account: • Institutions classify their programs independently, meaning that two programs that share identical content could hypothetically be classified under different CIP codes. In addition, it cannot be assumed that IPEDS completions reported under an individual CIP code always correspond directly to an individual program at an institution. • Newer programs may be excluded from completions data, as these programs have yet to graduate students. • Data on online programs are limited; there is not yet any way to determine the exact number or types of degrees conferred online at a given institution. At present, IPEDS indicates only whether a given degree may be completed online. • Hanover selected CIP codes aligned with Evergreen’s interest in interdisciplinary and liberal arts fields. CIP codes for engineering, education, and professional degree fields were excluded from the analysis. • Hanover classified programs based on state and regional growth indicators. The high growth programs are those with higher than average annual conferral growth as well as higher than average degree conferral volume at the relevant award level in 2016. Programs categorized as “emerging”show above-average conferral growth but below-average conferral volume in 2016. Classification Thresholds for Degree Programs

  31. Appendix Market Opportunity Scan: Bachelor’s and Master’s Degrees in Interdisciplinary Fields Labor Demand Methodology • To analyze the employment outlook for graduates with education in the academic fields of interest, Hanover examines labor projections, which align with six-digit occupations as defined by the BLS Standard Occupational Code (SOC) system. The SOC system is analogous to the CIP system, and the two are connected by the CIP-SOC crosswalk. The CIP-SOC crosswalk maps individual six-digit CIP codes to six-digit SOC codes. Hanover uses the CIP-SOC crosswalk to select occupations related to relevant CIP codes. Hanover also considers educational attainment levels of current workers when selecting relevant occupations. • Note: When interpreting occupational projections data, some considerations should be taken into account: • SOC categories may be broad and include a range of positions; as such, some projections may overestimate demand related to specific fields. • CIP-SOC Crosswalk may not identify all SOC codes potentially related to the degree topic or field. • National employment projections for 2016 to 2026 are drawn from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which published revised data in October 2017. State and regional employment projections are drawn from Projections Central, a repository maintained by the Projections Managing Partnership that offers state-level occupational projections data for a standard 10-year period (2016 to 2026). • Program findings and recommendations are based on the aggregate growth and annual job opening volume of all associated occupations. Hanover classifies high growth occupations as those with faster than average projected employment growth as well as above the projected average annual job openings. Emerging occupationsdemonstrate faster than average projected employment growth but below average projected annual job openings. • Occupation Gaps are defined by JobsEQ as follows: “Many pieces go into this analysis, but at its core, it is based on a forecast comparing occupation demand growth to the local population growth and the projected educational attainment of those residents. When an area, for example, has an occupation expected to grow quickly but the educational requirement for the occupation does not match well with the educational attainment of its residents, there is a high potential for an occupation shortfall in the region. Alternatively, slow-growing or contracting occupations often represent potential supply surpluses.” Classification Thresholds for Occupations

  32. Emily Kelleher Content Director, Higher Education 202.793.8841 ekelleher@hanoverresearch.com www.hanoverresearch.com

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