Ensuring global food security
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Ensuring Global Food Security. Shenggen Fan International Food Policy Research Institute. SID Vijverberg Session on Food The Hague, September 22, 2009. Overview. Food security under stress Outlook: Production, prices, nutrition Policy agenda for investment and action.

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Ensuring global food security

Ensuring Global Food Security

Shenggen Fan

International Food Policy Research Institute

SID Vijverberg Session on Food

The Hague, September 22, 2009


Overview

Overview

  • Food security under stress

  • Outlook: Production, prices, nutrition

  • Policy agenda for investment and action


Food insecurity due to multiple stress factors

Food insecurity due to multiple stress factors

Price volatility

Low R&D investment

Limited capital

Climate change

Subsidized biofuels

Food security

Recession

Water scarcity

Land degradation

Pests & diseases

Declining trade

Lack of infrastructure

Fast growth of demand

Agriculture is a necessary condition

to address these stress factors


Food price crisis and food riots

Food price crisis and food riots

Price spike

Source: J. von Braun based on news reports. Price are data from FAO 2009.


Domestic prices remain high and volatile

Domestic prices remain high and volatile

Maize

Rice

Source: FAO 2009.


Food crisis worsened by economic recessions

Food crisis worsened by economic recessions

Source: Data from IMF 2009; Ratha, Mohapatra, and Silwal. 2009; UNCTAD 2009, and World Bank 2009.


Land constraints

Land constraints

  • At most 12% more arable land available that isn’t presently forested or subject to erosion or desertification (Thompson 2009)

  • Land prices per hectare: $1,000 – $100,000

  • Land area in production could be doubled, but only by:

    • massive destruction of forests and loss of biodiversity and carbon sequestration capacity

    • high marginal costs of investment


Water constraints areas of physical and economic water scarcity

Water constraints: Areas of physical and economic water scarcity

Source: Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture, 2007.


Rising number of hungry people in the developing world

Rising number of hungry people in the developing world

>1 bil.

(in million)

WFS target

Data source: FAO 2006, 2008, 2009.


Rising world population adds to pressures on food security

Rising world population adds to pressures on food security

Population = 9 bil. by 2050

Countries resized relative to population in 2050

Source: Worldmapper 2009.


Overview1

Overview

  • Food security under stress

  • Outlook: Production, prices, nutrition

  • Policy agenda for investment and action


Ensuring global food security

Climate induced percentage change in production in 2050: Irrigated wheat

NCAR A2a

Global production = -42%

Source: M. Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009.


Climate change impact global food prices

Climate change impact: Global food prices

Source: M. Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009.


Climate change impact child malnutrition

Climate change impact: Child malnutrition

Part of the silent

Climate change

health crisis

Source: M. Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009.


Agriculture must be on the 2009 copenhagen agenda but how

Agriculture must be on the 2009 Copenhagen agenda, but how?

  • Investment: agriculture-related investments, as part of a Global Climate Change Fund

  • Incentives: phase in incentives first to reduce emissions and support technological change

  • Information: Establish comprehensive information and monitoring services of land use and soils for verification purposes


Policy and investment scenarios

Policy and investment scenarios

  • INC AG RES: 60% increase in crop yield growth and 30% increase in livestock growth

  • INC AG RES w/EFF: productivity growth by 30% in 2015 and by 50% in 2030

  • NRM/IMM:Enhanced water and soil management with enhanced market access

  • INC AG RES w/EFF & IRR EXP

    • COMP POL_INV:NRM/IMM + INC AG RES w/EFF + IRR EXP

Source: Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009.


Maize yields

Maizeyields

Source: Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009.


Prices

Prices

Source: Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009.


Ensuring global food security

Child malnutrition

Source: Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009.


Overview2

Overview

  • Food security under stress

  • Outlook: Production, prices, nutrition

  • Policy agenda for investment and action


Strategic agenda

Strategic agenda

Facilitate open trade and reduce market volatility

Promote pro-poor agriculture growth with technology and institutional innovations

Expand social protection and child nutrition action


Policy agenda for investment and action

Policy agenda for investment and action

Short-term:

Jumpstart agric. productivity in key areas

Establish emergency grain reserve to reduce volatility

Expand emergency and humanitarian assistance

Long-term:

Invest in sustainable pro-poor agric. growth

Calm markets and facilitate open trade

Invest in social protection and child nutrition action


Short term actions for agric productivity enhancement

Short-term actions for agric. productivity enhancement

  • Access to finance (e.g. rural banks and micro-finance)

  • Expansion of risk management (e.g. crop insurance)

  • Access to inputs (e.g. quality seeds, fertilizer, feed, veterinary drugs)

  • Access to services, extension

  • Investment in rural infrastructure (rural roads, electrification, water and irrigation)


Long term action for agric growth double public agric r d to impact poverty

Long-term action for agric. growth:Double public agric. R&D to impact poverty

CGIAR investment to rise from US$0.5 to US$1.0 billion as part of this expansion

Source: von Braun, Shenggen Fan, et al. 2008.


Calm markets and facilitate open trade

Calm markets and facilitate open trade

Keep trade open even at times of global and regional food shortage

Regulate food commodity markets? (only as part of financial markets)

Establish grain reserves policy at global level

shared physical reserves, and

virtual reserve (a new institution at global level)


Ensuring global food security

Invest in social protection and child nutrition action

  • Protective actions e.g.:

  • Cash transfers

  • Employment-based food security programs

  • Preventive actions e.g.:

  • School feeding (new insights)

  • Early childhood nutrition programs

Focus on children, women, and poorest


Food security portal http www foodsecurityportal org

Food Security Portalhttp://www.foodsecurityportal.org

  • Presents current info on world food system developments

  • Increases ability to respond quickly and adequately

  • Facilitated by IFPRI


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