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Major “Global” Economic Slowdown

Major “Global” Economic Slowdown. How long will the recession last?. How long will the recession last?. The Economy Tends to Move back to y*, which is prosperity. Is it too late for a stimulus package?. How long?. date of downturn. Return to Prosperity. time.

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Major “Global” Economic Slowdown

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  1. Major “Global” Economic Slowdown

  2. How long will the recession last? How long will the recession last? The Economy Tends to Move back to y*, which is prosperity Is it too late for a stimulus package? How long? date of downturn Return to Prosperity time Need to have the stimulus packages out the door? Is it too late? 61

  3. How long will the recession last? The Economy Tends to Move back to y*, which is prosperity Average: 12.9 months date of downturn Return to Prosperity time 61

  4. 8.5 million jobs lost over 2008 - 2009 2008 2009 2010

  5. Unemployment in US remains high High Unemployment Rates in the US Expected to remain For 2 years: Low Inflation pressures Implies unlikely US Fed will raise interest rates

  6. US Federal Funds Rate federal funds rate, which is the interest rate on overnight loans that banks make to each other

  7. Growth in US Debt Levels are unsustainable 12 Trillion 2006 8 Trillion 1990 4 Trillion 2001 6 Trillion

  8. (GDP) Graph US GDP Growth

  9. Will there be a Double Dip The Economy Tends to Move back to y*, which is prosperity Fragility in the recovery has raised the possibility of a double dip date of downturn time 61

  10. Major “Global” Economic Slowdown 8% 4% 2%

  11. Growth Rates in Real Gross domestic product Asian Economic growth has been impressive,…, and sustained Developing Asia Percentage Growth European Union Advanced Economies G7 Economies Source: IMF, WEO Data Base

  12. Europe Badly affected, but recovery is slow….. 2%

  13. Some European Economies in Great Difficulty 2 to -2%

  14. Growth in World Output, IMF Projections, 2010 Growth in India and China were also severely impacted by the Global Crisis Percentage Growth Source: IMF, WEO Data Base

  15. Gross Domestic Product, PPP based, Share of World Total A shift in the world’s economic geography Source: IMF, WEO Data Base

  16. Shares of World GDP, 1820-2006 Reproduced from presentation made by Professor Peter Pauly Joseph L. Rotman School of Management, University of Toronto

  17. China to overtake the US as world’s largest economy in 2040 India to overtake Japan in 2032 Reproduced from presentation made by Professor Wendy Dobson Joseph L. Rotman School of Management, University of Toronto

  18. Middle East Doing Well 8% 4% 4% 4% 2% The Middle Eastern Economies are expected to grow at the world average, Significantly higher than that of the advanced economies, but below that of Asia

  19. How About Iran? Despite quite a good performance in Iran’s Growth over the past decade, challenging times ahead

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