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Brieuc Bougnoux

Brieuc Bougnoux. PACT - Pathways for Carbon Transitions Transport in post carbon societies Munich, 20 may 2009. Los Angeles. Singapore. Chicago. Manila. 2. Repartition of final energy consumption in european countries.

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Brieuc Bougnoux

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  1. Brieuc Bougnoux PACT - Pathways for Carbon Transitions Transport in post carbon societies Munich, 20 may 2009

  2. Los Angeles Singapore Chicago Manila 2

  3. Repartition of final energy consumption in european countries Most of this energy comes from fossil sources, and will have to be decarbonised. Transport is one third of the energy consumption. Where urban form can have a strong impact

  4. Evolution of energy consumption In developed countries, energy consumption has not decreased over the last decades. Energy consumption per capita increased and tend to offset the progress made by technology. Evolution 1980-2006 in G8 countries - 25% due to technology due to humanbehaviour Energyconsumption + 32% + 22% due to demographicgrowth + 15%

  5. Content Some statistical evidence from Millenium Some statistical evidence from Paris case study Perspectives : What change can we expect in term of mobility What change can we expect in term of means of transport used

  6. Urban density and transport energy use for world cities R² = 0,71

  7. Density is good for public transport Density in main cities (hab / km2, 1st row) Public transport market share (2nd row)

  8. Comparison : USA and Japan 8

  9. Urban density and transport energy use per capita for European cities This graph shows no real correlation in Europe ! The Paris case study demonstrates however a strong correlation. => Density is not something easy to measure

  10. Average speed of the road network and of public transport

  11. Table Some statistical evidence from Millenium Some statistical evidence from Paris case study Perspectives : What change can we expect in term of mobility What change can we expect in term of means of transport used

  12. Population in Paris and his suburb in 2007 • Paris • 2.2 millions inhabitants • Surface : 106 km2 • Density : 20.800 capita / km2 2nd ring 1st ring • 1st ring • 5.9 millions inhabitants • Surface : 1181 km2 • Density : 5.000 capita / km2 Paris • 2nd ring • 2.6 millions inhabitants • Surface : 3454 km2 • Density : 750 capita / km2 20 km

  13. Density and use of the car in Paris Share of people who go to work by car Population’s density (people / km2) 0 20 km Low density High density Low use of the car High use 10 180 800 3200 26000 18% 50% 62% 82% 86%

  14. Density is strongly linked to use of car in Paris We tried also to link wealth to the use of car, as a second variable, but it was not statically correlated Density (people / km2) % of people who commute by car

  15. Mobility of people in Paris • Average distance is twice for inhabitants who live in the 2nd ring compared from those who live in the core Paris (23.2 km and 11.9 km). • Average distance per inhabitant and per day is increasing. It has passed from 13.0 km to 17.6 km between 1976 and 2001 (in Lyon : 17 km).

  16. Mobility of people in Paris • Time spent in the transport is 84 minutes per inhabitants and per day. It increased slightly over long period, but now it is pretty stable. • Speed is increasing, from 10.1 km/h in 1976 to 12.5 km/h in 2001. However, in the recent years, speed has decreased for car and public transport.

  17. Mode of transport used depends highly on the urban form in Paris

  18. Table Some statistical evidence from Millenium Some statistical evidence from Paris case study Perspectives : What change can we expect in term of mobility What change can we expect in term of means of transport used

  19. How CO2emission in cities due to transport can change ? Urban form(density or share of people who live in high density zone) Mobility per person Sociological driver Age of the population CO2 emission of transport Income ... Means of transport used (technology) ...

  20. Impact of the urban form on mobility ? • One colored cell : 10,000 inhabitants + 3,000 jobs • In each of those 3 cities, we have 100 colored cells => 1,000,000 inhabitants • Need of transport : people have the same probability to work in every colored cell Compact monocentric Compact polycentric Extensive 20

  21. Urban sprawl : is the phenomenon now stopped ? (In Paris, people are coming back in the core-city since few years) 1962 – 1975 : + 1,200,000 people 1975 – 1990 :+ 600,000 people 1990 – 2006 :+ 890,000 people Evolution of the population in Paris (in dark red, zone with the strongest growth in absolute figures)

  22. Change in mobility over long period : is there a sociological driver ? • For 2 or 3 years, it has been detected a decrease in mobility in large cities in France (Lyon and Lille for example). This decline is very new and was, until now, not observed at national level. • It can be explained by several drivers : new way of life, cost of oil, aging of the population… Number of trips are stable in Paris : => 3.5 trips per day and per person

  23. Income : a positive or negative impact on mobility ? There is a wide range of modal shares for cities of similar incomes with 3 distinct pathways as incomes rise. If cities in the developing world invest heavily in public and non-motorised transport infrastructure, they may be able to follow more sustainable pathways.

  24. Public policies : are they important ? Money spent in infrastructure and market share, in France

  25. Public policies : are they important ? Impact of the bonus-Malus (tax on the car market) implemented in January 2008 in France

  26. What are the most suitable mode of transport for cities ? • People are looking for transport which are : • Not so expensive • Fast • Not polluting • Not too big in term of space used • If possible suitable for short and long distance trips 26

  27. The representation proposed by Carlo Sessa Do it fast Do it together Do it alone 27 Do it slow

  28. There is a risk in the 21th century, that we will have to drop either the « fast » or the « alone » Do it fast 20th century 21th century ? Do it together Do it alone 19th century 18th century 21th century ? Do it slow 28

  29. Comparison of mode in urban environment Energy efficiency (liters per pass. for 100 km) 29 Source : US Transportation Energy Data Book (except for bike and walk)

  30. Comparison of mode in urban environment Energy (Liters per pass. for 100 km) • = problem Long trips Speed Cost Space used 30

  31. More technology will mean less density (and vice versa) • It is likely that we could have this kind of law : • Scenario 1 : the technology is successful => a lot of zero emission vehicle are on the market => it is possible to have extensive cities with individual housing • Scenario 2 : technology is not successful => vehicle are still emitting significant amount of CO2 => it is necessary to have dense cities Density 2 5000 p / km2 1 1000 p / km2 % of zero emission vehicle 0 100% 31

  32. Thankyou ! www. enerdata.fr

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