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Upper Stillwater Reservoir Firm Yield Forecasting Weston Bellon

Upper Stillwater Reservoir Firm Yield Forecasting Weston Bellon. OUTLINE: Introduction Methods Results conclusions. Upper Stillwater Reservoir. Provides water to Utah County 177% Increase in Population by 2065 Climate change could decrease Firm Yield. Data Inputs.

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Upper Stillwater Reservoir Firm Yield Forecasting Weston Bellon

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  1. Upper Stillwater Reservoir Firm Yield ForecastingWeston Bellon OUTLINE: Introduction Methods Results conclusions

  2. Upper Stillwater Reservoir • Provides water to Utah County • 177% Increase in Population by 2065 • Climate change could decrease Firm Yield

  3. Data Inputs • USGS Climate Projection Data • Precipitation, Evapotranspiration, Temperature • Large grid size • Current/recent conditions from SNOTEL • To calibrate climate projection data

  4. Data Calibration • Average SNOTEL and Projection data compared • IDW interpolation used for SNOTEL data • Ratio developed and applied

  5. Firm Yield Projection Calculations • Precipitation – Evapotranspiration = Flow to the Reservoir • Mass Balance, Sequent Peak Analysis • Performed in five year increments • Iterative yield determination

  6. Results • Firm yield will increase over time. • Firm yield will become more variable.

  7. Conclusion • Upper Stillwater Firm Yield not in jeopardy • Colorado River Basin precipitation debate • Limited to available data • Other data sources should be examined

  8. Questions?

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