Weather briefing saturday 17 august 2013
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Weather Briefing Saturday, 17 August 2013. Henry Fuelberg Nick Heath Sean Freeman & SEAC4RS MET Team. Cooler, drier air being advected into our region behind last night’s shortwave. Ending at 6:45 AM CDT. Surface Analysis: 1 PM CDT Today.

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Weather briefing saturday 17 august 2013

Weather BriefingSaturday, 17 August 2013

Henry Fuelberg

Nick Heath

Sean Freeman &

SEAC4RS MET Team


Cooler, drier air being advected into our region behind last night’s shortwave

Ending at 6:45 AM CDT





Models are in better agreement on landfall over N. Mexico and S. Texas. Locally, this will impact our rain chances Monday and Tuesday



500 disturbancemb Flow: Sunday - Wednesday


GFS disturbanceTropopause pressure at 1PM CDT Monday


Southeast Chemistry disturbance


2 m Temperature anomalies valid 7 PM CDT last night – cold an anomalous pattern over eastern CONUS


Monday maximum temperatures an anomalous pattern over eastern CONUS



Forecasted Max Temperatures lingers around

Wednesday

Friday


  • Southeast Chemistry lingers around

  • Troughing, scattered convection, and cloud cover will keep temps cooler on Monday

  • East Coast trough weakens by Wednesday, leading to higher surface temperatures.

  • Cannot forecast convection that far an advance…however, synoptic conditions indicate a little more active than climo based on high precipitable water values


NAM and Fires lingers around


Precip lingers around: Sunday - Wednesday


200 lingers aroundmb Streamlines: 1 PM CDT Monday

NCAR GFS


Dreamland lingers around Friday 500 mb


Dreamland lingers around Friday max temp


Dreamland lingers around Friday precip


  • TO and Landing for Monday lingers around

  • NE winds ~15 kt in the morning, veering SE in the afternoon

  • Good chance (30-40%) of precip in the morning, increasing more in the afternoon

  • Depends on the track/timing of the tropical wave


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