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Opatija. Tanker Chartering Report October 2008. Tanker Market Volatile. 2005-2007 2007-2008 BDTI - 60% + 70% BCTI - 61% + 82%. Baltic Dirty Tanker Index January 2005-October 2008. Baltic Clean Tanker Index January 2005-October 2008. Tanker Chartering Report. Bunker Prices in Rotterdam

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opatija

Opatija

TankerCharteringReport

October2008

tanker market volatile
Tanker Market Volatile

2005-20072007-2008

BDTI- 60%+ 70%

BCTI- 61%+ 82%

tanker chartering report
TankerCharteringReport

Bunker Prices in Rotterdam

Rose from $390 to $557 per tonne

Plus 45.5%

Peaking @ $729.50 July ’08

Now $357

tanker chartering report1
Tanker Chartering Report
  • Global Oil Demand up 1.3% yoy
  • Actual +0.97 (1.5m) b/d 2007

+0.43 (2.2m) b/d 2008

  • Oil Price $90/bbl 2009
  • Now $72
tanker chartering report2
TankerChartering Report

Low level of oil stocks – worldwide

Heavy refinery maintenance

High USA demand after hurricane damage

Increased OPEC output/oil on water

Japan + China restocking

Hebei Spirit – December 9 2007

tanker chartering report3
Tanker Chartering Report
  • China + 4.6% yoy driven by

Car ownership + 1,000 cars per day

air travel

construction

agriculture

petrochemicals

oil stocks

tanker chartering report4
Tanker Chartering Report

Oil Demand (2007)

India +5.0%

North America +0.47%

Europe -2.2%

tanker chartering report5
Tanker Chartering Report
  • Clean Tanker Trades

Directionless despite

Refinery problems in the Atlantic basin.

More exports from Europe

Congestion problems in discharge areas

India increasingly a supplier to Europe and Asia

tanker chartering report6
Tanker Chartering Report
  • Growth of tanker fleet 2.7% dwt in first

9 months of 2008 (net)

  • 66 single hull tankers gone for conversion to Storage, FPSO or VLOCs
  • Double Hull Fleet = 76% of existing fleet
tanker chartering report7
Tanker Chartering Report
  • VLCC average earnings:
    • 2006 $60,289
    • 2007 $54,979
    • 2008 $100,500 (to date)
    • 3 Oct $85,693
tanker chartering report8
Tanker Chartering Report
  • Future influences (Short Term):

Alternative

Suppliers & pipelines

Fuel/coal/gas

Response to “green” legislation

tanker chartering report9
Tanker Chartering Report
  • Future influences (long term):
  • 15 years/+ end of production from the largest fields found in last 40 yrs:

North Sea/Alaska/Sakhalin

New deep water finds:

Brazil/Gulf of Mexico

tanker chartering report10
Tanker Chartering Report
  • Future influences (Long Term):

Current finds are smaller capacity – indicating maintenance of high oil price = $ ???

or no return to low oil price

= $ 20

tanker market
Tanker Market

Lookout

For the

Hurricane!

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