Delphi method
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Computer Information Systems Georgia State University. Delphi Method. Radhika Jain Rebecca Rodecker. What do these have in common?. Economically Useful Desalination of Seawater Oral Contraceptives X-ray Lasers Self-replicating Molecules Synthetic Protein

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Delphi Method

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Delphi method

Computer Information Systems

Georgia State University

Delphi Method

Radhika Jain Rebecca Rodecker


What do these have in common

What do these have in common?

  • Economically Useful Desalination of Seawater

  • Oral Contraceptives

  • X-ray Lasers

  • Self-replicating Molecules

  • Synthetic Protein

  • Automatic Language Translation

  • Centralized Data Banks

DELPHI METHOD / Radhika Jain & Rebecca Rodecker


How about these

How about these?

  • Controlled Thermo Nuclear Power

  • Biochemical General Immunization

  • Limited Weather Control

  • World population by 2000 less than 6 billion

  • Manned Landing on Mars

DELPHI METHOD / Radhika Jain & Rebecca Rodecker


Agenda

Agenda

  • History

  • Characteristics

  • Types

  • Application Areas

  • The Need for Delphi

  • Generic Process

  • Pros/Cons

  • Reasons for Failure

  • Sources

DELPHI METHOD / Radhika Jain & Rebecca Rodecker


Delphi method

“When something has attained a point at which it is explicitly definable, then progresshas stopped”

-Linstone, 75

DELPHI METHOD / Radhika Jain & Rebecca Rodecker


History of delphi

History of DELPHI

  • 1944

    • Call for forecast of future technological capabilities

  • 1946

    • Douglas Aircraft Company

    • Project RAND

  • 1953

    • Dalkey & Helmer

    • Iteration with controlled feedback

    • Set of Procedures - DELPHI

Priestess of DelphiHon.John Collier, 1891

DELPHI METHOD / Radhika Jain & Rebecca Rodecker


History continued 2

History Continued (2)

  • 1960s

    • Developed

      • Theoretical assumptions

      • Methodological procedures

    • Spread beyond defense area

    • Spread beyond America

  • 1970

    • Policy DELPHI

  • Late 70s

    • Computer Mediated Delphi

DELPHI METHOD / Radhika Jain & Rebecca Rodecker


Delphi is characterized

Delphi is Characterized…

  • as a method for structuring a group communication process

  • so that the process is effective in allowing a group of individuals

  • as a whole

  • to deal with complex problems

Linstone & Turroff, 75, p.3

DELPHI METHOD / Radhika Jain & Rebecca Rodecker


Key characteristics

Key Characteristics

Anonymity

Iterative

Controlled Feedback

Aggregation

DELPHI METHOD / Radhika Jain & Rebecca Rodecker


3 types

3 Types

  • Classical Delphi

    • Estimate unknown parameters

  • Policy Delphi

    • Generate the strongest possible opposing views on the potential resolutions of a major policy issue

  • Decision Delphi

    • Aims to prepare, assist, and make decisions

Woudengberg, 91

DELPHI METHOD / Radhika Jain & Rebecca Rodecker


Some application areas

Some Application Areas

  • Surfacing new issues and moving study participants towards consensus

    • MISQ – Key Issue studies

  • Produce a rank-ordered list of risk factors

    • Schmidt, Lyyntinen, Keil, and Cule (01)

  • Determine the important dimensions and their measures for evaluating IS function performance

    • Saunders (92)

  • Weight functions to be performed at a given point in systems development

    • Naumann and Palvia (82)

DELPHI METHOD / Radhika Jain & Rebecca Rodecker


Naumann and palvia 82

Naumann and Palvia, 82

Example use

DELPHI METHOD / Radhika Jain & Rebecca Rodecker


More application areas

More Application Areas

  • Gathering current and historical data not accurately known or available

  • Examining the significance of historical events

  • Putting together the structure of a model

  • Delineating the pros and cons associated with potential policy options

  • Developing causal relationships in complex economic or social phenomena

  • Distinguishing and clarifying real and perceived human motivations

  • Exposing priorities of personal values and social goal

DELPHI METHOD / Radhika Jain & Rebecca Rodecker


The need for delphi

The Need for DELPHI

  • Subjective judgments vs. precise analytical techniques

  • Diverse backgrounds

  • Too many for face-to-face

  • Time & cost infeasible

  • Severe disagreement

  • Preservation of participant heterogeneity

DELPHI METHOD / Radhika Jain & Rebecca Rodecker


Generic process

Generic Process

AssembleGroup

Exploration of Subject

Analyze Comments

DiscussIssues

1st Iteration:Brainstorming

3rd Iteration:Ranking

2nd Iteration:NarrowingDown

Report toGroup

PublishResults

DELPHI METHOD / Radhika Jain & Rebecca Rodecker


Unresolved issues

Unresolved Issues

  • Iterations

    • How many iterations?

  • Reliability and Validity

  • The aim of consensus

  • Mathematical aggregation of individual judgment versus committee-like groups

  • Panel

    • How many

    • How to measure expertise

  • The nature of the feedback provided

DELPHI METHOD / Radhika Jain & Rebecca Rodecker


Stability measurement computations

Stability Measurement Computations

Abs ( #of respondents selecting a particular rating on the scale)Between Rounds 1 & 2

Linstone & Turroff, 75, p.279

DELPHI METHOD / Radhika Jain & Rebecca Rodecker


Results of stability analysis

Results of Stability Analysis

Linstone & Turroff, 75, p.281

DELPHI METHOD / Radhika Jain & Rebecca Rodecker


Proportion of respondents shifting positions as a function of distance from the mode

Proportion of respondents shifting positionsas a function of distance from the mode

100%

Average % movement over three rounds

80%

60%

Proportion of individuals at each distance from mode who move toward mode

40%

20%

15%

Units from mode

mode

1 2 3 4

Linstone & Turroff, 75, p.280

DELPHI METHOD / Radhika Jain & Rebecca Rodecker


Results of stability analysis1

Results of Stability Analysis

Linstone & Turroff, 75, p.281

DELPHI METHOD / Radhika Jain & Rebecca Rodecker


Philosophical foundations

Philosophical Foundations

  • Lockean IS

  • Leibnizian IS

  • Kantian IS

  • Hegelian Dialectic IS

  • Singerian-Churchman IS

DELPHI METHOD / Radhika Jain & Rebecca Rodecker


Possible pros 1

Possible Pros (1)

DELPHI METHOD / Radhika Jain & Rebecca Rodecker


Possible pros 2

Possible Pros (2)

DELPHI METHOD / Radhika Jain & Rebecca Rodecker


Possible cons 1

Possible Cons (1)

DELPHI METHOD / Radhika Jain & Rebecca Rodecker


Possible cons 2

Possible Cons (2)

DELPHI METHOD / Radhika Jain & Rebecca Rodecker


Reasons for failure

Reasons for Failure

DELPHI METHOD / Radhika Jain & Rebecca Rodecker


Abbreviated list of sources

Abbreviated List of Sources

  • Churchill, G.A. Marketing Research: Methodological Foundations Dryden Press, New York, 1995.

  • Delbecq, A.L., Van de Ven, A.H., and Gustafson, D.H. Group Techniques for Program Planning: A Guide to Nominal Group and Delphi Processes Scott-Foresman and Company, 1975.

  • Gutierrez, O. "Experimental techniques for information requirement analysis," Information & Management (16) 1989, pp 31-43.

  • Linstone, H.A., and Turoff, M. The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, 1975.

  • Naumann, J.D., and Palvia, S. "A Selection Model for Systems Development Tools," MIS Quarterly (6:1), March 1982, pp 39-48.

  • Rowe, G., Wright, G., and Bolger, F. "Delphi: A re-evaluation of Research and Theory," Technological Forecasting (39) 1991, pp 235-251.

DELPHI METHOD / Radhika Jain & Rebecca Rodecker


Delphi method

  • Sackman, H. Delphi Critique Lexington Books, Lexington, MA, 1975.

  • Saunders, C.S., and Jones, J.W. "Measuring Performance of the Information Systems Function," Journal of Management Information Systems (8:4), Spring 1992, pp 63-82.

  • Schmidt, R., Lyytinen, K., Keil, M., and Cule, P. "Identifying Software Project Risks: An International Delphi Study," Journal of Management Information Systems (17:4), Spring 2001, pp 5-36.

  • Story, V., Hurdley, L., Smith, G., and Saker, J. "Methodological and Practical Implications of the Delphi Technique in Marketing Decision-Making: A Re-Assessment," Marketing Review (1:4), Summer 2001, pp 487-505.

  • Weber, R. "Computer Technology and Jobs: An Impact Assessment Model," Communications of the ACM (31:1), January 1988, pp 68-77.

  • Woudenberg, F. "An Evaluation of Delphi," Technological Forecasting and Social Change (40:2) 1991, pp 131-150.

DELPHI METHOD / Radhika Jain & Rebecca Rodecker


More sources

More Sources

  • Please see our EndNote file for a complete list of sources.

DELPHI METHOD / Radhika Jain & Rebecca Rodecker


Thank you

Thank You

DELPHI METHOD / Radhika Jain & Rebecca Rodecker


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