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BDF Summit /BASREC GSEO Stockholm 5-6 October 2009 Anders Kofoed-Wiuff, Ea Energy Analyses. Objectives. To promote a common energy agenda for the Baltic Sea Region through the involvement of key stakeholders

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Presentation Transcript
slide1

BDF Summit /BASREC GSEO

Stockholm 5-6 October 2009

Anders Kofoed-Wiuff,

Ea Energy Analyses

objectives
Objectives
  • To promote a common energy agenda for the Baltic Sea Region through the involvement of key stakeholders
  • To provide a substantial basis for discussion of different energy scenarios for the region based on an analysis of energy data

Process

Feb 2009

Oct2009

May 2008

slide3

Developing scenarios

Storage CO2

CO2-emissions

Other energy

250

Electricity and district heat

Tranport

200

150

100

50

0

DG TREN

DG TREN

Ref_North

North

DG TREN

1990

2005

Scenario

2030

Fuel prices

Stakeholderdialogue

Energy demand

Efficiency measures

ScenarioAnalyses

Infrastructure

Results

Technology

data

Renewable resources

phase i

Targets for 2030

CO2: -50 % (1990)

Oil: -50 % (2005)

Phase I
phase ii
Phase II

Detailed analyses of the electricity markets 2010-2030

  • Targets
    • 2020: EU targets for CO2 and RE
    • 2030: 50 % CO2 reduction compared to 1990
  • Model decides new investments in generation capacity except nuclear and hydro power
  • Fuel prices according to International Energy Agency - 120 $/bbl in 2030
  • Baseline scenario and three variations
    • Regional targets for renewable energy
    • Lower electricity demand
    • More CO2 reduction in 2020
co2 emissions
CO2emissions
  • Marginal CO2 price

- 7 €/ton in 2020

- 60 €/ton in 2030

  • Marginal cost of increasing RE generation
    • 0 – 30 €/MWh in 2020
    • 0 - 11 €/MWh in 2030
scenario variations
Scenario variations
  • Regional target for increasing the share of renewable energy
    • Benefit: 5 billion Euro NPV , One RE price: 19 €/MWh
  • 10 percentage points additional CO2 reduction in 2020
    • Cost: 16 billion Euro NPV, CO2-price in 2020: 7 => 30 €/ton
  • Lower electricity demand (approx. -22 %)
    • Benefit: > 100 billion Euro NPV

(excl. cost of saving measures)

    • Electricity price: 40-50 €/MWh in 2020
key findings
Key findings
  • The targetscanbemet at reasonablecosts
  • Potential for more efficient generation and consumption
  • Benefits of regional cooperation
    • Interconnectors
    • Electricitymarkets
    • RE policies and projects
  • Strongertargetsarepossible
recommendations from the stakeholder dialogue
Recommendations from the stakeholder dialogue
  • shared vision “A Green Valley of Europe”
  • energy stakeholder forum
  • regional projects
  • common interconnector strategy
  • action plan for efficient and sustainable heating
  • common regional training programme
phase iii
Phase III
  • Modelllingtool and data for the whole region is nowavailable
  • How to utilisethis potential in the thirdprojectphase?
  • Suggestions for further analyses
    • Develop a ”strategy scenario” with input from each country in the region
    • Identify and evaluateconcreteprojects in cooperationwithstakeholders
    • Expand the scope to 2050
phase iii1
Phase III
  • Input for
      • EU Baltic Sea Region strategy in parallel with Baltic Energy Market and Interconnector Plan (BEMIP)
      • Regional perspective on the National renewable energy Action Plans and national energy efficiency efforts
input from bdf summit
Input from BDF Summit
  • The study could provide useful input for concretisation of EU Baltic Sea Strategy – climate, economy and security of supply
  • We need concrete plans and actions – ”lighthouse projects”
    • Grids and wind power
    • Combined heat and power and energy efficiency
    • Training and education
  • Incorporate national policies in the study (including nuclear) – develop a road map for the region
  • Look at a portfolio of technology options, include a technological development, e.g. solar and wave
  • Expand the scope to 2050 – explore ”truly” sustainable scenarios (no fossil fuels)
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