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BDF Summit /BASREC GSEO Stockholm 5-6 October 2009 Anders Kofoed-Wiuff, Ea Energy Analyses PowerPoint PPT Presentation


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BDF Summit /BASREC GSEO Stockholm 5-6 October 2009 Anders Kofoed-Wiuff, Ea Energy Analyses. Objectives. To promote a common energy agenda for the Baltic Sea Region through the involvement of key stakeholders

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BDF Summit /BASREC GSEO Stockholm 5-6 October 2009 Anders Kofoed-Wiuff, Ea Energy Analyses

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Bdf summit basrec gseo stockholm 5 6 october 2009 anders kofoed wiuff ea energy analyses

BDF Summit /BASREC GSEO

Stockholm 5-6 October 2009

Anders Kofoed-Wiuff,

Ea Energy Analyses


Objectives

Objectives

  • To promote a common energy agenda for the Baltic Sea Region through the involvement of key stakeholders

  • To provide a substantial basis for discussion of different energy scenarios for the region based on an analysis of energy data

Process

Feb 2009

Oct2009

May 2008


Bdf summit basrec gseo stockholm 5 6 october 2009 anders kofoed wiuff ea energy analyses

Developing scenarios

Storage CO2

CO2-emissions

Other energy

250

Electricity and district heat

Tranport

200

150

100

50

0

DG TREN

DG TREN

Ref_North

North

DG TREN

1990

2005

Scenario

2030

Fuel prices

Stakeholderdialogue

Energy demand

Efficiency measures

ScenarioAnalyses

Infrastructure

Results

Technology

data

Renewable resources


Phase i

Targets for 2030

CO2: -50 % (1990)

Oil: -50 % (2005)

Phase I


Phase ii

Phase II

Detailed analyses of the electricity markets 2010-2030

  • Targets

    • 2020: EU targets for CO2 and RE

    • 2030: 50 % CO2 reduction compared to 1990

  • Model decides new investments in generation capacity except nuclear and hydro power

  • Fuel prices according to International Energy Agency - 120 $/bbl in 2030

  • Baseline scenario and three variations

    • Regional targets for renewable energy

    • Lower electricity demand

    • More CO2 reduction in 2020


A balanced view on nuclear power

A balanced view on nuclear power


Future generation capacity

Future generation capacity


Generation outlook

Generation outlook


Utilisation of biomass resources

Utilisation of biomass resources


Co2 emissions

CO2emissions

  • Marginal CO2 price

    - 7 €/ton in 2020

    - 60 €/ton in 2030

  • Marginal cost of increasing RE generation

    • 0 – 30 €/MWh in 2020

    • 0 - 11 €/MWh in 2030


Scenario variations

Scenario variations

  • Regional target for increasing the share of renewable energy

    • Benefit: 5 billion Euro NPV , One RE price: 19 €/MWh

  • 10 percentage points additional CO2 reduction in 2020

    • Cost: 16 billion Euro NPV, CO2-price in 2020: 7 => 30 €/ton

  • Lower electricity demand (approx. -22 %)

    • Benefit: > 100 billion Euro NPV

      (excl. cost of saving measures)

    • Electricity price: 40-50 €/MWh in 2020


Key findings

Key findings

  • The targetscanbemet at reasonablecosts

  • Potential for more efficient generation and consumption

  • Benefits of regional cooperation

    • Interconnectors

    • Electricitymarkets

    • RE policies and projects

  • Strongertargetsarepossible


Recommendations from the stakeholder dialogue

Recommendations from the stakeholder dialogue

  • shared vision “A Green Valley of Europe”

  • energy stakeholder forum

  • regional projects

  • common interconnector strategy

  • action plan for efficient and sustainable heating

  • common regional training programme


Phase iii

Phase III

  • Modelllingtool and data for the whole region is nowavailable

  • How to utilisethis potential in the thirdprojectphase?

  • Suggestions for further analyses

    • Develop a ”strategy scenario” with input from each country in the region

    • Identify and evaluateconcreteprojects in cooperationwithstakeholders

    • Expand the scope to 2050


Phase iii1

Phase III

  • Input for

    • EU Baltic Sea Region strategy in parallel with Baltic Energy Market and Interconnector Plan (BEMIP)

    • Regional perspective on the National renewable energy Action Plans and national energy efficiency efforts


Input from bdf summit

Input from BDF Summit

  • The study could provide useful input for concretisation of EU Baltic Sea Strategy – climate, economy and security of supply

  • We need concrete plans and actions – ”lighthouse projects”

    • Grids and wind power

    • Combined heat and power and energy efficiency

    • Training and education

  • Incorporate national policies in the study (including nuclear) – develop a road map for the region

  • Look at a portfolio of technology options, include a technological development, e.g. solar and wave

  • Expand the scope to 2050 – explore ”truly” sustainable scenarios (no fossil fuels)


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