Consistency controlled future generating models
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Pitlik, Pető , Pásztor, Popovics, Bunkóczi , Szűcs University Gödöllő, Hungary PowerPoint PPT Presentation


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Consistency controlled future generating models Mapping Time and Space for checking environmental consistencies with COCO methodology. Pitlik, Pető , Pásztor, Popovics, Bunkóczi , Szűcs University Gödöllő, Hungary. Introduction.

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Pitlik, Pető , Pásztor, Popovics, Bunkóczi , Szűcs University Gödöllő, Hungary

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Pitlik pet p sztor popovics bunk czi sz cs university g d ll hungary

Consistency controlled future generating models Mapping Time and Space for checking environmental consistencies with COCO methodology

Pitlik, Pető , Pásztor, Popovics, Bunkóczi, Szűcs

University Gödöllő, Hungary

Supported by the Hungarian Research Found (OTKA T049013)


Introduction

Introduction

  • Model fitting is not always ensured with enough care: error min. ≠ model consistency.

  • The processes (objects) in scope of each modelling are happening in Space and in Time.

  • Hypothesis: the built up models authenticity may be examined by the consistency of the attributes of the time and/or space connected objects.

  • Methodological background – Similarity analysis: COCO methodology (Component based Object Consistency for Objectivity)

Supported by the Hungarian Research Found (OTKA T049013)


Coco methodology i

COCO methodology I.

  • comparing n objects on the base of their m common attributes (as inputs) and one output (e.g. price or time, space)

  • ranking on the base of the attributes – specifying the rank values for each starting value for each attributes

  • Ordering (through Excel Solver) „COCO-parameter” for each rank value

Supported by the Hungarian Research Found (OTKA T049013)


Coco methodology ii

COCO methodology II.

  • Constraint in case of all attribute, that the below COCO value may get only lower or equal value than the upper one

  • Collecting COCO values for each objects

  • Connecting the COCO values with arbitrary function and giving a „summarising” value to each object as an estimation

  • Moving these COCO values by Excel Solver to get their direct or transformed values to the most close to the real Y values.

  • Difference minimisation principles: e.g. quadratic error (for price analysis) or Pearson coefficient (for modelling of space and time).

Supported by the Hungarian Research Found (OTKA T049013)


Introducing the topics

Introducing the topics

  • Time: Describing dynamic (in time happening) phenomena with it`s characteristic attributes – possibility of intra- and extrapolation – the Time is the Y (case study: meteorology)

  • Space: Describing the situations of objects located in space with their characteristic attributes - the direction in flat is the Y (case study with random values)

Supported by the Hungarian Research Found (OTKA T049013)


The time

The time

  • Describing the time in general

    • http://miau.gau.hu/miau/82/time-space_coco.xls

  • Describing the time according to meteorological attributes

    • http://miau.gau.hu/miau/83/coco_meteorologia.xls

Supported by the Hungarian Research Found (OTKA T049013)


Pitlik pet p sztor popovics bunk czi sz cs university g d ll hungary

Supported by the Hungarian Research Found (OTKA T049013)


Pitlik pet p sztor popovics bunk czi sz cs university g d ll hungary

Supported by the Hungarian Research Found (OTKA T049013)


Pitlik pet p sztor popovics bunk czi sz cs university g d ll hungary

Supported by the Hungarian Research Found (OTKA T049013)


Pitlik pet p sztor popovics bunk czi sz cs university g d ll hungary

Supported by the Hungarian Research Found (OTKA T049013)


Pitlik pet p sztor popovics bunk czi sz cs university g d ll hungary

Supported by the Hungarian Research Found (OTKA T049013)


The space

The space

  • Describing the space in general

    • http://miau.gau.hu/miau/82/time-space_coco.xls

  • Possible test (…coming soon…): examination of the data involved in METAR telegrams for one given moment and for about 100km*100 km size area`s measure points

Supported by the Hungarian Research Found (OTKA T049013)


Pitlik pet p sztor popovics bunk czi sz cs university g d ll hungary

Supported by the Hungarian Research Found (OTKA T049013)


Pitlik pet p sztor popovics bunk czi sz cs university g d ll hungary

Supported by the Hungarian Research Found (OTKA T049013)


Pitlik pet p sztor popovics bunk czi sz cs university g d ll hungary

Supported by the Hungarian Research Found (OTKA T049013)


Pitlik pet p sztor popovics bunk czi sz cs university g d ll hungary

Supported by the Hungarian Research Found (OTKA T049013)


Pitlik pet p sztor popovics bunk czi sz cs university g d ll hungary

Supported by the Hungarian Research Found (OTKA T049013)


Inner values

Inner values

  • The importance of attributes – the average of COCO values

  • The homogeneity of attributes – standard deviation of the COCO values

  • Ranking algorithm are responsible for the length of the potential forecasting

  • The error definition makes strong influence for the sum of errors

Supported by the Hungarian Research Found (OTKA T049013)


Application possibilities for coco

Application possibilities for COCO

  • Benchmarking - Ranking - Learning

    • Objective utility analysis (price/cost comparing, country/employee-ranking, automated SWOT analysis)

    • Forecasting (e.g. stock change of animals)

    • Checking authenticity of experts/models (checking possible status-variations of future = consistency)

Supported by the Hungarian Research Found (OTKA T049013)


Outlook

Outlook

  • Further case studies are needed for testing the fine tuning and generic aspects of the method (e.g. optimum of forecasting potential, solving linearity originating from ranking)

  • Possible further applications for testing of the potential through this methodology:

    • examining meteorological data connected to different locations but to the same moment

    • model selection for forecasting by stock change of pigs

    • Your modelling approach?

Supported by the Hungarian Research Found (OTKA T049013)


Pitlik pet p sztor popovics bunk czi sz cs university g d ll hungary

The research is supplied by OTKA T-049013 …

For further details

Thanks for Your attention!

Supported by the Hungarian Research Found (OTKA T049013)


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