Technofutures

1. Technofutures Tools of the 21st century (from James Canton)

2. Tools as Artifacts of Change • Forcenturies, toolshavebeenthedecisivemarkersforstages of humanevolution, as well as commerce. Earlyhumans’ use of Stone Agetoolsdetermineddeathorsurvival. As civilizationprogressed, wemovedout of theHunter-GathererStageusingtoolstoharnessnatureandinventagriculture. Thetools of theAgrarianstagetransformedcivilizationagain, leading us from a nomadiclifestyleintosettlements. TheIndustrialEra, bestcharacterizedbythesteam engine, revealed a moresophisticated set of toolsthatacceleratedsocialprogressand, particularly, commerce. The Post-IndustrialorInformationEra is symbolizedbythecomputer, themostpowerfultoolhumanshave yet created.

3. Tools as Artifacts of Change • Nextgenerationtechnologieswilltransformbusiness, marketsandsociety. ThePowerToolsdescribedherearethebeginning of a fantasticrevolution. Thisrevolutionwillredefinehowweliveandwork, loveandplay, createanddestroy. Theoncomingchangecatalyzedbyemergingtechnologywillrealignculture, reshapeeconomies, turnscienceupsidedown, releasecountlessinnovations, andtransformeveryhumanendeavor. Oldideologieswilldieandnewideaswillreign. • Theconvergence of leading-edgetechnologywill be thesinglemostpowerfuldriver of changeforthenext 100 years.

4. Tools as Artifacts of Change • Theprogression of newtechnologyspawningnewproducts is movingfasterandfaster. Inthelast 50 years, there has beenmoretechnologyinnovationthan in theprevious 5000 years. • Theprintingpresscausedthemonks, theexclusivebookmakerstothewealthyelite, tolosetheirmonopoly. The TV eclipsedtheradio. Trainslostgroundtotrucks. • Wirelesstelephoneswillsoonmake hard-wirephonesobsolete. The TV, telephoneand Internet willmergeintosomethingnew. Interactivemediawilldominateentertainment. • Supplyanddemandwill be shapedbystrategictechnologythatchangestheeconomics of theday. Weareentering a time wherenewtechnologiessuch as the Internet willrealignmarketsandtheeconomy at an unprecedentedpace. The network as thenewbusiness model willforcetraditionalbusinesstoadaptordie.

5. Tools as Enablers of theFuture TheFourPowerTools: • Computers • Networks • Biotechnology • Nanotechnology ThesePowerToolsarepredictivedrivers of changeandtheessentialdesignstrategies of thenext 100 years. Ifweunderstandthem, we can begintoenvisionwhatthenextlogicalstepsmay be.

6. Computers • Thecomputer is thebaselinepowertool of the 21st century, an extensionofthehumanbrain. It is theultimatetoolforprobingthe yet unseenworkings of theuniverse. • Thesupercomputers of today can renderextremelycomplexbehavioralandstructuralmodels of virtuallyanythingthat can be imagined, fromthemechanics of theuniversetothemolecularconstructs of life itself. • Inessence, thecomputer is a dynamicviewingtoolmakingvisiblethenextlevel of abstractionanddiscovery, fromdrugstorobotsto art tospaceexploration. Thecomputer is theparent of theotherpowertools.

7. Networks • “Network” is a metaphorforuniversalconnectivity, a fundamentalforcethatwillcontinuetoshapeeducation, theenterpriseandculture. • The Internet is a global marketplacewithoutborders. The “Net” alsoreferstothe network convergence of allcommunicationsdevices on the planet – satellite, telephone, TV, andwirelessdevices. Theconvergence of computersandnetworks is providing a level of innovationwehaveneverexperienced in history. • Fast, smartandpowerfulnetworksprovidinghigh-speedaccessforcombiningvoice, data, video, andgraphics is what’scoming. FromcablemodemsandDigitalSubscriberLines (DSL) to a variety of fiber opticandwirelessservices, nextgenerationcommunicationnetworkswillchangebusinessandlifestyles. Data trafficwillincreasetoover 10 timesvoicetraffic.

8. Biotechnology • Biotechnology is abouttherevolutionarydesign of life on the planet at the DNA level. Correctingdiseases, treatingmentaldysfunctionandphysicaldefects, andcreatingnewdrugsandfoodsarespecificoutcomes of applyingbiotechtools. Thebigpictureshows us redesigning life itself. • A combination of 3 factorsallows us toreachthethreshold of thebiotech domain: molecularmanipulation as a “mechanical” assemblyprocess; advancedsupercomputing, whichallowsforthemodeling of complexmolecularandphysiologicalsystems; andthe “discovery” of newlyformedbiologicalmaterials, such as proteins. • Biochipsarethecombination of microcircuitsandmicroscalefluidicandmechanicalassemblies. Theyrely on technologiesverysimilartothoseusedtocreatecomputerchips, but integratebiologicalmaterials.

9. Nanotechnology • Thetools of biosciencearetheprogenitors of theultimatepowertool – nanotech. Nanotechnology is themanipulation of matter at theatomiclevelforthecreation of a widerange of artifacts. • Nanotechnology is themostsuperiordesigntechnology ever conceptualized. Fromfoodtoenergy, constructionmaterialsto DNA, nanotechwill be thetechnologyweusetoconstructmatter. Itwillsurpassthepotential of alltheotherpowertoolsdescribedso far. • Nanotech is an extraordinaryfabricationprocess, a meansbywhich an object – organicornon-organic, livingorinert – can be replicated. Theultimateoutcome of nanotechwould be thefabrication of materialsandmolecularconstructsneverbeforeconsideredpossible.

10. Nanotechnology • Thehumanspeciesmay be propelledbynanotech far beyondthelimitations of thenaturalrules of theobservableworld. Wewill be abletofabricate at willanymaterial, substance, objectorlivingbeing, includingourselves. • Therules of commerce, businessmodels, eventhedefinition of life will be irreversiblyaltered. • Nanotechwilluseall of theprinciplesandinnovationsproducedbytheotherpowertools. It is theultimatealchemy. Fromthe robot on thehead of a pinthat can performheartsurgery, tothefoodcompilersthatwillgeneratedinner, to DNA assemblersthatwillbuildpowerfulspaceshipsinexpensively, nanotechwillchangeeverything. • Wearemovingfastinto a futurethat, by 2020, will be reshapedbynanotech.