The Value of Information. Using risk to guide decision-making under uncertainty NWHA Annual Conference February 2014. xkcd.com. Darin E. Johnson BIS Consulting. Problem summary. Upgrade of a hydro-generation facility. Two-unit plant with space for a third.
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Darin E. Johnson
Option 1looks better by $3 million…
…but there is still a lot of uncertainty.
$4.6 million risk
Some of these we can improve, others we can’t
What we expect to happen:
What might happen:
If we can do this work for less than $2.9 million, it is worthwhile.