The Auto Future: Fast and Furious
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The Auto Future: Fast and Furious David E. Cole Chairman Emeritus Center for Automotive Research (CAR) Chairman AutoHarvest Strategic Business Luncheon Eagle Eye Golf Club April 24, 2014. David is to be returned to Italy   A bit of cultural news for a welcome change! .

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The Auto Future: Fast and FuriousDavid E. ColeChairman EmeritusCenter for Automotive Research (CAR)Chairman AutoHarvestStrategic Business LuncheonEagle Eye Golf ClubApril 24, 2014


David is to be returned to Italy  

A bit of cultural news for a welcome change!


His Proud Sponsors were Fast Food Chains…


Auto

“We Had a Problem”

Mostly Revenue –

with Depression Level of Sales


PALE Meeting-March 19, 2009

However, Will It Come Back . . ?U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Forecast

+4.4 M

+6.8 M

+8.9 M

+2.4 M

-8.0 M

-9.3 M

-5.2 M

Source: CSM Worldwide, J.D. Power


PALE Meeting-March 19, 2009

U.S. Light Vehicle Sales History and ForecastCombined J.D. Power and CSM Worldwide Forecast2007 - 2014

Millions

Source: CSM Worldwide, JD Power, Inc.


Pillars of Economy

  • Mining

  • Agriculture

  • Manufacturing


Manufacturing–

An Amazing Level of Ignorance


Manufacturing Choke Points?

  • Staff

  • Tooling

  • Suppliers

  • Equipment

  • Natural Events

  • Materials


Auto Industry of the Future

A World of

Vanishing Boundaries


Key Contemporary Issues

  • Energy

  • Policy

  • Money

  • Staffing


Beware: The Aging of the Boomers.


Demographics

“Boomers go Boom”

  • Consumer Behavior

  • Socio / Political

  • Health Care

  • Skilled Workers

  • World Issue


Auto Industry -

Thousands of New Jobs – But Only

for the Educated


Offshoring for Cheap Labor

Offshoring for Skilled Labor


Tough Challenges Ahead:

K-12 Pipeline

Young Women

No Universal Message

Inadequate Resources

Poor History

Dated Picture of Manufacturing


“Building America’s Tomorrow”

  • Give Scale to Great Educational Programs

  • Create a Message of Importance, Opportunity and Need


Economic Contribution of the U.S. Automotive Industry


Economic Multiplier

Auto Manufacturers – 10

Auto Parts Supplier – 5.7


Success Requires Improvements in:

  • Cost

  • Revenue

  • Agility

  • Innovation


Industry, Highly Unstable —

Not in Final Form


The Old Business Model is Broken


Old Business Model

Vertical Integration

Talk

Paper

Bureaucracy

Linear

Slow

Lean

Control

Legalistic

Physical

Prototypes

Individual

Sequential

Job for Life

Regional

Kings

Competition

Acquisitions

Structured


New Business Model

Listen

Virtual Integration

Collaboration

Paperless

Anti-bureaucracy

Lean

Agile

Fast

Empowerment

Trust

Virtual

Prototypes

Team

e-enabled

Parallel

People Flow

Coaches

Global

Coopetition

Alliances

Flexible


New Business

Model

Performance

Real

Desired

Present Business Model

Time


Global Integration-

One Company World-wide

  • Platforms

  • Components

  • R & D

  • Plants

  • Everything


Value of Global Economies of Scale are Huge


Lean / Agile

  • Investment

  • Engineering

  • Manufacturing

  • Everything


Collaboration Driven by

Resource Shortage

  • Natural

  • Financial

  • Human

  • Time


Leadership:

Responsibility – Authority

Everyone is Important


Leadership:

  • Coach

  • Team

  • Vision

  • Self Confidence

  • Focus

  • Systems Thinking

  • More Than the Job

  • Communication


Key Questions for Leaders:

  • What Do I Have To Do That I’m Doing?

  • What Am I Doing That I Don’t Have To Do?

  • What Am I Not Doing That I Should Be Doing?


Knowledge

The Competitive Edge


It’s nice to be smart and rich,but smart is more important than rich.


Do what you know.


Cars

and

Trucks

Customer

Pull

Technology

Push

Product

and

Process


Knowledge

Competitive

Advantage

Innovation

KnowledgeApplication

Time


Innovation:

  • Innovative People and Companies Win

  • It Takes a Team

  • Leadership is Critical

  • Look Across Traditional Boundaries

  • Sometimes It is Better to Ask Forgiveness than Permission


Coming Soon:“Auto Harvest”Check it out at autoharvest.org


Big Data is HereThe Challenge: Use is Intelligently


STEM is Moving toSTEAM


T I M E


Fast-paced change demandsleverage of all resources


Communication

Collaboration

Cooperation

Alliances

Teamwork


It’s All About People…

Relationships Are Important


Product Technology

At the edge of a revolution?


Future Auto Power Plants

The Answer – ?

  • Gasoline

  • Diesel

  • Hybrid

  • Fuel Cell

  • Electric

  • ?


Future Fuels

  • Petroleum

  • Bio

  • Hydrogen

  • NH3

The Answer – ?


Future Gasoline Price –

$ 1.50 – $ 5.00 /gallon


Annual Mileage 15,000

Annual Fuel Cost

MPG


Breakthrough Areas

  • Advanced Batteries

  • Cellulosic Bio-Fuels

  • Connected Vehicles

  • Advanced Material Systems


Future Direction

It’s All a Matter of Economics


World Classis a Moving Target


The Team!The Team! The Team!


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