Ecological modelling in the North Sea – data needs and policy perspective

1. Ecological modelling in the North Sea – data needs and policy perspective David K. Mills Johan van der Molen Cefas, Lowestoft, UK EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010

2. Policy Context • Eutrophication - OSPAR definition :“the enrichment of water by nutrients, especially nitrogen and/or phosphorus, causing an accelerated growth of algae and higher forms of plant life to produce an undesirable disturbance to the balance of organisms present in the water and to the quality of water concerned” EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010

3. Cefas/NIOZ GETM-ERSEMwww.nioz.nl/northsea_model EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010

4. Policy Context • OSPAR PARCOM Recommendation 88/2: has a requirement to aim to achieve a substantial reduction (of the order of 50%) in inputs of phosphorus and nitrogen into areas demonstrating eutrophication problems. EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010

5. Policy questions Is the OSPAR nutrient reduction strategy likely to eliminate eutrophication in all Problem Areas? To what extent does the TransBoundary Transport of Nutrients between national maritime areas contribute to eutrophication? What evidence is there to contest the European courts infraction proceedings against the UK under the UWWTD contending that several water bodies (6) are eutrophic (under the UWWTD) Potential Problem Area Problem Area Non -Problem Area Outcome to 2nd Application OSPAR CP EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010

6. Model application – infraction proceedings Use simple, easy to understand, risk assessment model Draw in UK expertise to prepare for model application, review results, distil advice to Defra Specific attention give to calculate uncertainty in results Iterative application – run model, interpret results, provide advice to Defra and expert panel, obtain feedback, re-run model. Specific question – does the naturally ‘high’ turbidity in UK coastal waters limit the susceptibility to eutrophication Answer - YES many water bodies experience strong light limitation and so susceptibility is reduced. EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010

7. Utilise established capability in ecosystem modelling in member countries OSPAR created collaborative infrastructure 6 countries 7 models OSPAR Intersessional Correspondance Group on Eutrophication Modelling – (ICG-EMO) www.cefas.co.uk/eutmod Formed 2005 – works to OSPAR ToR’s OSPAR - Ecosystem Modelling Norway EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010

8. OSPAR: will the strategy to combat eutrophication be effective? Use coupled 3D-hydrodynamic ecosystem models Realstic riverine nutrient reduction scenario’s Calculate transport of nutrients across maritime boundaries Multi-model ensemble approach through international working group (ICG-EMO) –3 workshops Common forcing, calibration and validation data, and model comparison Outcome scrutinised by OSPAR and formal ICES review Model domains EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010

9. Quality assurance in model application Riverine nutrient data improved Composite data from North Sea partners to create new data source for model calibration and validation Quantitative approach to assess model performance (cost functions) Results presented in scientific meetings and published in peer reviewed paper Lenhart H,. Mills, D.K, Baretta-Bekker, H., van Leeuwen, S., van der Molen, J., Baretta, J.W., Blaas, M., Desmit, X., Kühn, W., Lacroix, G., Los, H.J., Ménesguen, A., Neves, R., Proctor, R., Ruardij, P., Skogen, M.D, Vanhoutte-Brunier, A., Villars, M.T., S. L. Wakelin (2010). Predicting the consequences of nutrient reduction on the eutrophication status of the North Sea. Journal of Marine Systems 81, 148-170 EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010

10. Validation 2002NL-C3 EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010

11. Nutrient reduction scenario testing 50%, 70% reduction of 1985 levels in 2002 Different load reductions for TOxN (NO2+NO3), NH4 and PO4 Different load reductions for each country required to construct realistic nutrient reduction scenarios 1985 2002 ammonium EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010

12. Netherlands offshore water body (NL02) results Indicator response to 50% reduction Indicator response to 70% reduction NL02 Mean winter DIN at surface Mean winter DIP at surface Mean summer Chl at surface Annual O2 mini- mum at bottom EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010

13. Nutrient reduction scenario results Model results presented in OSPAR Comprehensive Procedure reporting format Results for Netherlands Offshore water body Scenario 1 and 2 is 50% and 70% reduction respectively EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010

14. Transboundary nutrient transport UK2: Humber EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010

15. Transboundary nutrient transport NL1: Rhine Pelagic + Benthic Pelagic + Benthic Pelagic + Benthic EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010

16. Contribution to annual average total N from all sources Netherlands Germany National Maritime Areas OSPAR-ICG-EMO areas EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010 Figure 4. Contribution to annual average total N from all sources (colours) for Cefas (UK-c) and Deltares (NL) models, and average of the two models, for Netherlands and German national maritime areas (top), and three OSPAR-ICG-EMO areas (bottom). Figure 4. Contribution to annual average total N from all sources (colours) for Cefas (UK-c) and Deltares (NL) models, and average of the two models, for Netherlands and German national maritime areas (top), and three OSPAR-ICG-EMO areas (bottom). Figure 4. Contribution to annual average total N from all sources (colours) for Cefas (UK-c) and Deltares (NL) models, and average of the two models, for Netherlands and German national maritime areas (top), and three OSPAR-ICG-EMO areas (bottom).

17. Outcomes Model work funded by Defra led by Cefas has resulted in Amendment OSPAR strategy: a 50% reduction in riverine nutrient input (compared to 1985) may not be sufficient to eliminate eutrophication in some water bodies. Availability of quantitative information on transboundary pollution (nutrient) transport between maritime areas allowing robust eutrophication mitigation strategies to be developed Clear science based evidence on the reduced susceptibility of certain UK coastal water bodies to eutrophication that contributed to the UK defence against the European Court infraction proceedings carried out under the UWWTD EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010

18. Lessons Learned • Data gathering extremely hard work and time consuming • Availability of riverine nutrient flux data at European scale problematic especially for recent (3-4 y) data • National marine monitoring data invaluable for calibration and validation • Collaborative working through ICG-EMO extremely efficient (task sharing, interpretation) • International multi-model ensemble approach essential for use of models to advise policy end-user – helps to reduce conflict in international/European policy fora. EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010

19. Data Needs • Good spatial coverage • Multiple parameters • More years (currently 1988/89 and 2002) • Long-term time series (several decades) • Near-real time river runoff and nutrient load data EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010

20. Current and Future Developments • EMECO: web-based assessments • Western Shelf Observatory: monitoring shelf-ocean exchange • 50-year hind cast of North Sea ecosystem dynamics (movie?) • Egg and larvae particle tracking: MPA potential interconnectivity EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010

21. European Marine ECosystem Observatory Calibration Validation Information and evidence ‘pipeline’ Hindcast Forecast EMECO Web – enabled Datatools Assessment map Real time Delayed mode QC/ QA Real time Delayed mode Raw data holding Time-series QA’d Databases EMECO Assessment database Delayed mode EMECO Datatool Interface EMECO User Query CPR Delayed mode QA’d Data KML–Google Earth ICES Delayed mode Gridded data MERMAN UK/EU sources EMODNET Data XML, CSV GMES - MyOcean EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010

22. Western Shelf Observatory EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010

23. Stratification, Oystergrounds T Strength Duration Onset EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010

24. MPA potential interconnectivity EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010

25. ? EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010

26. EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010

27. Communication strategyAim - to ensure full understanding of policy customer needs Gain full understanding of Defra requirements Regular direct contact between policy customer and Cefas advisory staff Participation by Cefas staff in relevant international and UK policy for a e.g. OSPAR EUC, UK Eutrophication Committee (?) Defra and Cefas jointly developing specification for commissioned work Transmit knowledge to Defra Regular formal and informal contact between policy and advisory staff Multiple communication methods – meetings, written reports, web-reporting, formal presentations, workshops 2-way communications with prioritised & rapid response to Defra Complex model results communicated in a meaningful way to policy customers. EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010