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A State Space Bioeconomic Model of Pacific Halibut

A State Space Bioeconomic Model of Pacific Halibut. Keith R Criddle, Utah State University Mark Herrmann, University Alaska Fairbanks. Halibut Landings. IPHC regulatory areas. Approximate Structural Model with Aoki State Space Time Series Error Correction. Model Solution.

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A State Space Bioeconomic Model of Pacific Halibut

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  1. A State Space Bioeconomic Model of Pacific Halibut Keith R Criddle, Utah State University Mark Herrmann, University Alaska Fairbanks

  2. Halibut Landings

  3. IPHC regulatory areas

  4. Approximate Structural Model with Aoki State Space Time Series Error Correction

  5. Model Solution • GLS solution to equation 1 • GLS solution to equation 2 with bias correction • Aoki State Space Time Series Analysis solution to equations 3 & 4 • Iterate steps 1, 2, and 3 until parameter estimates converge

  6. Convergence of Parameter Estimates Stock Dynamics Recruitment

  7. Stock Dynamics

  8. Recruitment Dynamics

  9. State and Observation Equations

  10. Decay Path of Latent Variables

  11. Gain from State Space Error Correction Procedure

  12. Expected Sustainable Yields

  13. Expected Recruitment

  14. Sustainable Yield and Recruitment: ± 10% Change in Productivity

  15. Sustainable Yield and Recruitment: ± 10% Change in Recruitment

  16. Sustainable Yield and Recruitment: ± 5% Change in Growth Rate

  17. Product and Financial Flows in the Halibut Market

  18. Market Model US Wholesale Demand R2 = 0.871 US Inventories R2 = 0.446 BC Exports R2 = 0.795 BC Export Price R2 = 0.946 AK Exvessel Demand R2 = 0.899 BC Exvessel Demand R2 = 0.882

  19. Economic Effects of IFQs

  20. Expected Effects of Season Elongation

  21. Expected Effects of Increased Aquaculture

  22. Sustainable Exvessel Revenues: ± 10% Change in Productivity

  23. Sustainable Exvessel Revenues: ± 10% Change in Productivity

  24. Sustainable Exvessel Revenues: ± 10% Change in Recruitment

  25. Sustainable Exvessel Revenues: ± 10% Change in Recruitment

  26. Sustainable Exvessel Revenues: ± 5% Change in Growth Rate

  27. Sustainable Exvessel Revenues: ± 5% Change in Growth Rate

  28. What Next? • Age/Sex structure to stock and recruitment dynamics • Spatial structure to stock and recruitment dynamics • Use ENSO instead of PDO to gain from lag • Include model production costs • Stochastic Optimal Control of catches and inventories

  29. The End

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