U.S. and World Cotton Economic Outlook
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U.S. and World Cotton Economic Outlook September 2013 Prepared by: Economic Services National Cotton Council. Macroeconomic Environment. U.S. Real GDP Growth. U.S. Crude Oil Spot Price. U.S. #2 Diesel, Gulf Coast. Civilian Unemployment Rate. U.S. Federal Budget Surplus (CBO Projection).

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Macroeconomic Environment

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Macroeconomic environment

U.S. and World Cotton Economic OutlookSeptember 2013Prepared by:Economic ServicesNational Cotton Council


Macroeconomic environment

Macroeconomic

Environment


U s real gdp growth

U.S. Real GDP Growth


U s crude oil spot price

U.S. Crude Oil Spot Price


U s 2 diesel gulf coast

U.S. #2 Diesel, Gulf Coast


Civilian unemployment rate

Civilian Unemployment Rate


Macroeconomic environment

U.S. Federal Budget Surplus

(CBO Projection)


Macroeconomic environment

CBO Ag Baseline Spending


Macroeconomic environment

Real GDP Growth

in Selected Countries


Euro currency per u s dollar

Euro(Currency per U.S. Dollar)


Real exchange rate index other important trade partners

Real Exchange Rate Index(Other Important Trade Partners)

Federal Reserve


Ag prices received index

Ag Prices Received Index


Macroeconomic environment

U.S. Net Farm Income


Macroeconomic environment

U.S. Cotton Supply


December cotton futures

December Cotton Futures


December corn futures

December Corn Futures


November soybean futures

November Soybean Futures


Macroeconomic environment

2013 U.S. Cotton Area

Thousand Acres

* USDA


Macroeconomic environment

2013 U.S. Cotton Area

Thousand Hectares

* USDA


Macroeconomic environment

U.S. Cotton Production


Macroeconomic environment

U.S. Cotton Supply


Macroeconomic environment

U.S. Cotton Demand


Macroeconomic environment

Net Domestic Fiber Consumption


Cotton s share of fiber consumption

Cotton’s Share of Fiber Consumption


U s cotton retail consumption

U.S. Cotton Retail Consumption


Macroeconomic environment

Components of Retail Fiber Consumption


Macroeconomic environment

U.S. Cotton Textile Imports


Macroeconomic environment

U.S. Cotton Content in Textile Imports


Macroeconomic environment

U.S. Cotton Product Trade with Mexico


Macroeconomic environment

U.S. Cotton Product Trade with CBI


Macroeconomic environment

U.S. Cotton Product Imports from China


Macroeconomic environment

U.S. Cotton Mill Use

(Calendar Year)


Macroeconomic environment

U.S. Cotton Mill Use

(Marketing Year)


Macroeconomic environment

U.S. Cotton Production & Use


Macroeconomic environment

The World Market

& U.S. Cotton Exports


Macroeconomic environment

China Cotton Supply & Use


Macroeconomic environment

World Cotton Production


Macroeconomic environment

World Fiber Mill Use

*PCI


Fiber prices

Fiber Prices


Macroeconomic environment

World Cotton Mill Use


Macroeconomic environment

Foreign Cotton Production & Use


Macroeconomic environment

U.S. Cotton Exports


Macroeconomic environment

World Cotton Ending Stocks


Cotton stocks use world less china

Cotton Stocks/Use(World less China)


Macroeconomic environment

U.S. Supply and DemandMillion Bales

Beginning Stocks3.353.90

Production17.3212.90

Imports0.010.01

Total Supply20.6816.81

Mill Use3.503.50

Exports13.0310.40

Total Offtake16.5313.90

Ending Stocks3.902.90

Stocks-to-Use Ratio23.6%20.9%

2012/13e

2013/14p


Macroeconomic environment

U.S. Supply and DemandMillion Metric Tons

Beginning Stocks0.730.85

Production3.772.81

Imports0.000.00

Total Supply4.513.66

Mill Use0.760.76

Exports2.842.27

Total Offtake3.603.03

Ending Stocks0.850.63

Stocks-to-Use Ratio23.6%20.9%

2012/13e

2013/14p


Macroeconomic environment

World Supply and DemandMillion Bales

Beginning Stocks71.7786.04

Production121.04117.42

Imports46.4338.93

Mill Use107.27109.53

Exports46.7438.96

Ending Stocks86.0494.73

Stocks-to-Use Ratio80.2%86.5%

2012/13e

2013/14p


Macroeconomic environment

World Supply and DemandMillion Metric Tons

Beginning Stocks15.6418.75

Production26.3725.58

Imports10.128.48

Mill Use23.3723.86

Exports10.188.49

Ending Stocks18.7520.64

Stocks-to-Use Ratio80.2%86.5%

2012/13e

2013/14p


Macroeconomic environment

Producers

Cooperatives

Warehouses

Manufacturers

Ginners

Cottonseed

Merchants


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