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Climate Change Impacts on Weather, Water, and Agriculture in the North Central US

This article discusses the future implications of climate change on the weather patterns, water availability, and agricultural practices in the North Central US. It explores the projected changes in temperature, precipitation, and other factors, and the potential impacts on natural ecosystems, human health, and various industries.

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Climate Change Impacts on Weather, Water, and Agriculture in the North Central US

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  1. Image courtesy of NASA/GSFC

  2. Weather, Water, and Agriculture in the North Central US: The Future Isn’t What It Used To Be! Eugene S. Takle, PhD, CCM Professor of Atmospheric Science Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences Professor of Agricultural Meteorology Department of Agronomy Director, Climate Science Initiative Iowa State University Ames, Iowa 50011 gstakle@iastate.edu Faith, Reason, and World Affairs Symposium Concordia College 16-17 September 2008

  3. CO2, CH4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data Source: Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 203, 829-843. Pattern repeats about every 100,000 years Natural cycles

  4. IPCC Third Assessment Report

  5. Carbon Dioxide and Temperature 2008 384 ppm

  6. Carbon Dioxide and Temperature “Business as Usual” 950 ppm ?

  7. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gifhttp://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gif

  8. Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations.

  9. Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations. Highly Likely Not Natural Not Natural

  10. Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research

  11. Energy intensive Reduced Consumption Energy conserving IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers

  12. Energy intensive Reduced Consumption Energy conserving The planet is committed to a warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers

  13. Energy intensive Reduced Consumption Energy conserving Mitigation Possible Adaptation Necessary IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers

  14. Suitability Index for Rainfed Agriculture IPCC 2007

  15. Suitability Index for Rainfed Agriculture IPCC 2007

  16. Projected changes in precipitation between 1980-1999 and 2080-2099 for an energy-conserving scenario of greenhouse gas emissions IPCC 2007

  17. Grain and oilseed consumption has exceeded production 7 of last 8 years Tostle, Ronald, 2008: Global Agricultural Supply and Demand: Factors Contributing to the Recent Increase in Food Commodity Prices WRS-0801 May 2008. USDA/ERS

  18. Projected changes in precipitation between 1980-1999 and 2080-2099 for an energy-conserving scenario of greenhouse gas emissions IPCC 2007

  19. Precipitation minus Evaporation for Western US (25N-40N, 95W-125 W) R. Seager, et al.,2007. Model Projections of an Imminent Transition to a More Arid Climate in Southwestern North America. Science, Vol. 316. no. 5828, pp. 1181 - 1184

  20. Average Annual Precipitation

  21. Projected Changes* for the Climate of the North Central US Temperature • Longer frost-free period (high) • Higher average winter temperatures (high) • Fewer extreme cold temperatures in winter (high) • Higher nighttime temperatures both summer and winter (high) • More freeze-thaw cycles (high) • Increased temperature variability (high) Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by models No current trend but model suggestion or current trend but models inconclusive *Estimated from IPCC reports

  22. Projected Changes* for the Climate of the North Central US Precipitation • More (~15%) precipitation annually (medium) • Change in “seasonality”: Most of the increase will come in the first half of the year (wetter springs, drier summers) (high) • More variability of summer precipitation (high) • More intense rain events and hence more runoff (high) • Higher episodic streamflow (medium) • Longer periods without rain (medium) • Stronger storm systems (medium) • Snowfall increases (late winter) in short term but decreases in long run (medium) • More winter soil moisture recharge Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by models No current trend but model suggestion or current trend but models inconclusive *Estimated from IPCC reports

  23. Projected Changes* for the Climate of the North Central US Other • Reduced wind speeds (high) • Reduced solar radiation (medium) • Accelerated loss of soil carbon (high) • Phenological stages are shortened (high) • Weeds grow more rapidly under elevated atmospheric CO2 (high) • Weeds migrate northward and are less sensitive to herbicides (high) • Plants have increased water used efficiency (high) Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by models No current trend but model suggestion or current trend but models inconclusive *Estimated from IPCC and CCSP reports

  24. A Few Areas Impacted by Climate Change Natural ecosystem species distributions Human health (heat waves, influenza) Building designs Recreation opportunities River navigation Pavement performance (roads) Corrosion rates (bridges) Carbon sequestration/loss by soil Forest productivity Shipping limitations (Great Lakes) Wind power resources Winter maintenance costs (roads & bridges • Crop & horticulture production • Soil erosion • Conservation practices • Water supplies • Stream flow • Water quality • Beef and pork daily gains • Livestock breeding success • Milk and egg production • Crop and livestock pests and pathogens • Biofuel production projection • Power demand for heating & cooling • Planning for droughts & floods • Agricultural tile drainage systems

  25. Summary • Natural variability alone cannot explain the observed changes in global mean temperature • Regions now suitable for rain-fed agriculture may not be so in the future due to projected changes in precipitation • Recent trends in global grain and oilseed stocks and market volatilities underscore the fragility of global food production • Some climate changes projected for the North Central US are detrimental to agriculture but many are favorable

  26. For More Information • For peer-reviewed evidence supporting everything you have seen in this presentation, see my online Global Change course: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/gccourse • Contact me directly: gstakle@iastate.edu • Current research on regional climate and climate change is being conducted at Iowa State Unversity under the Regional Climate Modeling Laboratory http://rcmlab.agron.iastate.edu/ • North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program http://www.narccap.ucar.edu/ • For this and other climate change presentations see my personal website: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/faculty/takle/ Or just Google Eugene Takle

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