From global to local spatial interaction and infectious diseases dispersion
Download
1 / 32

From Global to Local: Spatial Interaction and Infectious Diseases Dispersion - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 143 Views
  • Uploaded on

From Global to Local: Spatial Interaction and Infectious Diseases Dispersion. David Wong Professor of Geography Chair Earth Systems & GeoInformation Sciences With contributions from Dr. Catherine Dibble (U. Maryland-College Park) Karen Owen (GMU – Graduate Student)

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about 'From Global to Local: Spatial Interaction and Infectious Diseases Dispersion' - melissan


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript
From global to local spatial interaction and infectious diseases dispersion
From Global to Local: Spatial Interaction and Infectious Diseases Dispersion

David Wong

Professor of Geography

Chair

Earth Systems & GeoInformation Sciences

With contributions from

Dr. Catherine Dibble (U. Maryland-College Park)

Karen Owen (GMU – Graduate Student)

Min Li (GMU – Graduate Student)


Motivation
Motivation

  • Theme of the Conference: Avian Flu

  • This presentation - broader

  • Spreading of Infectious Diseases from human to human through direct or indirect contacts

  • Worry about Avian Flu because


Motivation1
Motivation

  • Worry about Avian Flu because

    • Human contraction (more likely in Asia)

    • Where?




Population density1
Population Density

Population Density – interaction - risk

Selected Places:

  • Hong Kong: 6660/sq km

  • Macau: 16068

  • Taiwan: 714

  • Canada: 3.64

  • U.S.: 32.6

  • NY metro: 1702/sq ml = 665/sq km

  • Manhattan: 66940 = 26148/sq km





International migration
International Migration

  • Geographical Literature on Migration:

    • Gravity Models or Spatial Interaction Models

  • Iij – interaction between locations i and j

  • dij – distance between I and j

  • β – distance decay parameter

    • How much interaction will respond to a change in distance?

  • Pi, Pj – characteristics of origin i and destination j

  • K – scaling factor

  • Migration? or Mobility






First 3 weeks of 1918 flu pandemic
First 3 Weeks of 1918 Flu Pandemic

  • Arrived via ports

    • Boston

    • New York

  • Spread to key cities

  • Spread beyond cities

  • Early warning helps

    • Difficult in 1918

    • Almost real-time now

(Crosby, Alfred (1989) America’s Forgotten Pandemic: The Influenza of 1918)


Local interaction dispersion
Local Interaction/Dispersion

Domestic Air Travel

  • 1980: 249,158,581 / 226M = 1.09

  • 1990: 428,769,370 / 248M = 1.72

  • 2000: 616,379,536 / 281M = 2.19

  • 2005: 674,025,059 / 295M = 2.28


Midas university of maryland geograph epidemic models
MIDAS University of MarylandGeoGraph Epidemic Models

  • Colored bars are cities

  • People travel between cities, spreading the disease

  • Bar charts show health status:

    • Green – healthy

    • Pink – infected

    • Red – infectious

    • White – recovered (immune)

    • Gray – dead

  • Links are roads and airline routes

(Dibble and Feldman (2004) jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/7/1/7.html)


University of maryland midas research
University of Maryland MIDAS Research

  • Which cities are at greatest risk?

  • How should limited resources for interventions be allocated geographically in order to protect the most people?

  • Which airline flights, train routes, or highways should be monitored or blocked to reduce risks?

(Dibble and Feldman (2004) jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/7/1/7.html)


Targeting cities and transportation routes
Targeting Cities and Transportation Routes

(Dibble and Feldman (2004) jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/7/1/7.html)




Environmental conditions local preventive measures
Environmental Conditions(Local “Preventive Measures”)



Ap avril lavigne has agreed that spitting at the paparazzi is probably not a good thing to do
(AP) Avril Lavigne has agreed that spitting at the paparazzi is probably not a good thing to do





Conclusion
Conclusion

  • If gov’t has to take action – already epidemics

  • Methods to control epidemics

  • “Common sense” personal hygiene practice

  • Higher level of consciousness (education) on spreading of diseases – but not be obsessed or phobia

  • Smarter design of structure may help


ad