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UPTAP Workshop 2008 University of Leeds, 18-19 March 2008 Wednesday 19 March 1530-1600

WHAT HAPPENS WHEN INTERNATIONAL MIGRANTS SETTLE? ETHNIC GROUP POPULATION TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS FOR UK LOCAL AREAS UNDER ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS Phil Rees, Paul Norman and Peter Boden (Leeds). UPTAP Workshop 2008 University of Leeds, 18-19 March 2008 Wednesday 19 March 1530-1600

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UPTAP Workshop 2008 University of Leeds, 18-19 March 2008 Wednesday 19 March 1530-1600

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  1. WHAT HAPPENS WHEN INTERNATIONAL MIGRANTS SETTLE? ETHNIC GROUP POPULATION TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS FOR UK LOCAL AREAS UNDER ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS Phil Rees, Paul Norman and Peter Boden (Leeds) UPTAP Workshop 2008University of Leeds, 18-19 March 2008Wednesday 19 March 1530-1600 ESRC Research Award RES-165-25-0032

  2. Project Aims To project the ethnic populations of local areas in the UK over the next 50 years To develop estimates of the inputs to the projection for the current decade Presentation Outline To explain the model design being developed (Phil Rees) State space of model Accounting framework Model structure Internal migration model Ethnic mortality estimation (Phil Rees) Ethnic fertility estimation (Paul Norman) New Migrant Databank (Pete Boden)

  3. STATE SPACE • Zones (434) (O origins, D destinations) • England 354 LAs • Wales 22 UAs • Scotland 32 CAs • Northern Ireland 26 DCs • Ages (102 period-cohorts) (A) • Bto0, 0to1, 1to2, …, 99to100, 100+to101+ (102) • Sexes (2) (S) • Males, Females • Ethnic Groups (18) (E) • 15 from 2001 Census with • “White: Other White-CEE EU” • “White: Other White-Other EU” • “White: Other-Other” • Time intervals (flexible) (T) • 1981-1991-2001-2, … , 2005-6, 2006-7, …, 2050-51 Source: Dunnell, K. (2007) The changing demographic picture of the UK: National Statistician’s annual article on the population. Population Trends 130, 9-21.

  4. Age x+2 Lx+1 sx lx+1 x+1 Lx px x lx t t+1 Survival probabilities and survivorship probabilities Time

  5. Population accounting framework for countries and local authorities

  6. fertility Initial database populations mortality Internal migration International migration survival Projected deaths, survivors Mortality assumptions Emigration assumptions emigration Projected surviving emigrants Projection outputs scenarios migration conditional on survival within UK Internal migration assumptions or model Projected surviving internal migrants immigration Immigration assumptions Projected surviving immigrants Fertility assumptions births final populations Projected final populations and births

  7. Internal migration model Something between a rock (saturated) O432 D432 E18 S2 A102 and a hard place (independence) O432 + D432 + E18 + S2 +A102 such as A102S2 + O432D432E7 + E18 age-sex + origin-age, origin-destination-broad ethnicity + detailed ethnicity

  8. Ethnic mortality: proposed estimation method LA life tables and LA SMRs for whole population 2001 Census SIRS for whole population Compute SMR = ac + bc SIR for c=England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland LAs 2001 Census SIRs for ethnic groups for Las 2001 ethnic SMRe = ac + bc SIRe dea (1) = d*a SMRe /100 dea (2) = dea (1) × [D*a /Σe dea (1)Pea ]

  9. Fertility rates for the projection model: needs … • Information on past trends • By all persons, estimate by ethnic group • A range of plausible assumptions • Different fertility scenarios by ethnic group

  10. ASFRs ASFRs ASFRs ASFRs TFRs TFRs Trends for all LAs in UK All persons in Bradford & Leeds: 1982-2006 Leeds Bradford

  11. Trends for all LAs in UK • Estimate by ethnic group? • Child : woman ratios & apportion TFRs • 1991 & 2001 Censuses (but different ethnic groups) • ‘Own child’ method: Coleman & Salt (2003) • Labour Force Survey TFRs

  12. Past trends for all LAs in UK • Estimate by ethnic group? • Age of mother at first birth • General Household Survey 2001 1981 % births by age-group % births by age-group • Further evidence? • Longitudinal Study for England & Wales / Scotland

  13. International Migration

  14. Context: Complexity

  15. Context: Uncertainty

  16. Context: Conceptual differences Frequency Visitors Short-term migrants Long-term migrants 3 months 12 months Intended or Reported Length of Stay

  17. Context: Alternative sources

  18. Context: ONS developments Improving Migration and Population Statistics (IMPS) project NSQR of international migration improving both the estimation of total migration flows to and from the UK, improving the allocation of international migration to local areas. Short-term migration estimates Evaluation of alternative administrative sources

  19. This Research Project: Objectives International Migration estimates for the new Ethnic Population projection model New Migrant Databank (NMD) alternative sources local authority level available, accessible data integrated view improved estimation (level & distribution)

  20. This Research Project: Data Sources Census Total International Migration (TIM) International Passenger Survey (IPS) National Insurance Number (NINo) statistics Workers Registration Scheme (WRS) GP Registrations (Flag 4) Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) National Pupil Database (NPD) Labour Force Survey (LFS)

  21. This Research Project: Progress Leeds

  22. We have been working on/will work on: Model design/program writing Initial database/completion and harmonisation Ethnic mortality/full implementation New migrant database/integration and synthesis Ethnic fertility/use of GHS and LS Work programme

  23. End

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