A program for research and systems integration to help mitigate the volcanic ash hazard to aviation
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A Program for Research and Systems Integration to Help Mitigate the Volcanic Ash Hazard to Aviation. Tenny Lindholm,. David Johnson & Cathy Kessinger. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Aviation Weather Research Program. ► Oceanic Weather Product Development Team (OWPDT).

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A program for research and systems integration to help mitigate the volcanic ash hazard to aviation l.jpg

A Program for Research and Systems Integration to Help Mitigate the Volcanic Ash Hazard to Aviation

Tenny Lindholm,

David Johnson & Cathy Kessinger


Federal aviation administration faa aviation weather research program l.jpg
Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Mitigate the Volcanic Ash Hazard to AviationAviation Weather Research Program

►Oceanic Weather Product Development Team

(OWPDT)

Core Scientific Membership: NCAR, NOAA/AWC,NRL-Monterey, & MIT/Lincoln Labs


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National Aeronautics and Mitigate the Volcanic Ash Hazard to Aviation

Space Administration

►Advanced Satellite Aviation-Weather

Products Program (ASAP)

Key Participants: NCAR and OWPDT members, University of Wisconsin/CIMSS, NASA/Langley



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FAA Volcanic Ash: Rolls-Royce RB211 (BA 747)

User Needs Analysis Summary

  • Need better integration of the agencies responsible for generating information on volcanic eruptions and ash clouds, with a collaborative approach that (a) provides all stakeholders the most current information and (b) permits all stakeholders to participate in updating information.

  • Need a common database of text and graphic products that all users can access to facilitate collaborative decision-making.

  • Stakeholders include airlines, air traffic management and control, weather providers & geological surveys.

Global cooperation, collaborative decision-making!


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Volcanic Ash User Needs: Rolls-Royce RB211 (BA 747)Specifics

  • Improved detection of volcanic eruptions globally, to include characterization of the initial ash cloud.

  • Better characterization of the ash cloud as the event progresses:

    • Location, horizontal & vertical extent of hazard

    • Ash density and chemistry (hazard assessment)

    • Differentiate volcanic ash from meteorological cloud

  • More frequent product updates.


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    Volcanic Ash User Needs: Rolls-Royce RB211 (BA 747)Specifics (continued)

    • Improved timeliness of updates (from observation or product generation to user access).

    • Better forecasts:

      • Location, horizontal & vertical extent of hazard

      • Changes to ash density and chemistry

      • Longer valid time

      • Improved dissemination for flight planning

  • Training.

  • Ready access to all information for all users (AOC’s, flight crews, and ATC specialists)

  • Higher resolution graphical products, including vertical cross-sections.


  • Volcanic ash user needs research l.jpg
    Volcanic Ash User Needs: Rolls-Royce RB211 (BA 747)Research

    • Global detection of eruptions and volcanic ash plumes.

    • Global high resolution wind fields.

    • Improved plume dispersion models.

    • Methods to characterize ash plume density and chemistry.

    • Aviation hazard definition based on plume density and chemistry.

    Maximize benefit from current satellite systems &

    define needed technologies for the future!


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    Volcanic Ash User Needs: Rolls-Royce RB211 (BA 747)Collateral Objectives

    • Common database.

    • Display concepts and graphics.

    • Networked collaborative workstations.

    • Internet dissemination and data link to aircraft.


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    Reventador, Equador Rolls-Royce RB211 (BA 747)


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    Reventador, November 2002 Rolls-Royce RB211 (BA 747)


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    Oceanic Weather PDT Rolls-Royce RB211 (BA 747)

    • Hazardous Convection

    • Turbulence

    • In-flight Icing

    • Flight-level winds

    • SIGMETS

    • Volcanic Ash


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    Cloud Top Height Rolls-Royce RB211 (BA 747)


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    Graphical Rolls-Royce RB211 (BA 747)

    Cockpit

    Display


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    OWPDT Activities & Progress Rolls-Royce RB211 (BA 747)

    • Collaborative product generation and dissemination

      • Networked and interactive display capabilitiesNOAA-FSL Volcanic Ash Collaborative Tool (VACT)

      • Automated SIGMET decoder and web-based global display system

    • Improved, global, high-resolution wind field that is compatible with dispersion models, such as HYSPLIT and VAFTAD

    • Monitor DoD funded dispersion model research at NCAR

    1


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    SIGMET Decoder Rolls-Royce RB211 (BA 747)


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    OWPDT Activities & Progress Rolls-Royce RB211 (BA 747)

    • Collaboration with the USGS on volcanic eruptions (in progress)

      • Global volcano database—eruption history, characterization, location, plume type

      • Extensive seismic sensing network

      • Expertise on identifying high risk areas based on geoseismic data

    • NCEP collaboration on detection and plume cloud detection and display

    2


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    OWPDT Activities & Progress Rolls-Royce RB211 (BA 747)

    • New partnership established with NASA through ASAP Program.

      • Research channel differencing techniques available with current satellite sensing capabilities (GOES & AVHRR)

      • Explore other existing technologies such as TOMS

      • Research and test new sensing technologies for future satellites (e.g., GIFTS and MODIS)

    3


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    Gulf of Mexico Rolls-Royce RB211 (BA 747)

    Volcano

    Mexico

    Pacific Ocean

    Popocatepetl, Mexico

    14 February 2003

    • 1045-1815 UTC

      Algorithm output at 30 min intervals

      Ash cloud is extrapolated

    • Purple = current position

    • Orange = 60 minute extrapolated position


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    Washington VAAC Warning Rolls-Royce RB211 (BA 747)

    Popocatepetl, Mexico

    14 February 2003

    1302 UTC

    1315 UTC

    • Algorithm results compare well with VAAC verification data

      • Highest values within “thick ash around FL250”

    +


    Reventador ecuador l.jpg

    Colombia Rolls-Royce RB211 (BA 747)

    Pacific Ocean

    Volcano

    Ecuador

    Peru

    Reventador, Ecuador

    4 November 2002

    • 0046-1545 UTC

      Algorithm output at 30 min intervals

      Ash cloud is extrapolated

    • Purple = current position

    • Orange = 60 minute extrapolated position


    Slide23 l.jpg

    Washington VAAC Warning Rolls-Royce RB211 (BA 747)

    Reventador, Ecuador

    3-4 November 2002

    4 November

    0046 UTC

    +

    3 November

    2315 UTC


    Slide24 l.jpg

    Washington VAAC Warning Rolls-Royce RB211 (BA 747)

    Reventador, Ecuador

    4 November 2002

    0515 UTC

    +

    0515 UTC


    Reventador ash cloud total ozone mapping spectrometer l.jpg
    Reventador Ash Cloud Rolls-Royce RB211 (BA 747)Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer


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    Reventador SO2 Rolls-Royce RB211 (BA 747)


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    OWPDT Activities & Progress Rolls-Royce RB211 (BA 747)

    • Naval Research Laboratory – Monterey

      • Image enhancing techniques for dust clouds and aerosols

      • Investigation of automated feature detectors for global monitoring, detection & reporting

    4


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    Ongoing Mt. Etna Eruption: 10/30/02 Rolls-Royce RB211 (BA 747)

    SeaWIFS True Color NRL Dust Enhancement


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    OWPDT: Rolls-Royce RB211 (BA 747)Possible Operational Products

    • Graphical Eruption Flag● Rapid display and dissemination

    • Graphical SIGMET Product● Currently in development (extracted from text SIGMET)

    • Graphical Depiction of Ash Cloud● Either a new custom (computer-generated) product or a pass through of a collaboratively produced graphical metafile

    • Advection and Dispersion of Ash Cloud● Short term forecast (1-3 hours) for ATC planning

    • Hazard Assessment● Difficult problem!


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    Anticipated Milestones: Rolls-Royce RB211 (BA 747)

    • FY04—automated global depiction of VA SIGMET areas

    • FY04—collaboration established with Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies, USGS, NOAA

    • FY05—some collaborative tool capability with integrated wind fields and dispersion model output

    • FY05—intelligent dispersion nowcast capability that integrates wind fields with several dispersion model outputs for plume characteristics (density, chemistry, particle size)

    • FY08(?)—launch of GIFTS satellite, shakedown, testing of new sensing technologies

    The most difficult part of the problem is likely to be identifying the relationships between plume characteristics and hazards to aircraft systems!


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