Measuring Scotland’s Ageing Population

1. Measuring Scotland’s Ageing Population Cecilia Macintyre, Head of Demography General Register Office for Scotland 4 October 2007

2. Presentation Overview • National method of projecting population • Variation across Scotland • Future work • Questions?

3. National projections method and results

4. National projections: key points • ‘full’ projections done every two years • 2006-based will be published on 23 October 2007 • 75 year projection period • split by age and sex • use base of latest population estimates • standard (cohort component) methodology • comprehensive data available on GAD’s website with report on GROS website • a National Statistic

5. The cohort component method • a starting (‘base’) population by age and gender • assumptions for future: • fertility • mortality • migration

6. Calculating population projections Pt+1 = Pt + B – D + I – E where Pt+1 = new population Pt = current population B = births D = deaths I = in migration E = out migration

7. Consultation • GAD prepares proposals on ‘headline’ assumptions for each country • individual countries consult key users, with GAD support as required • consultation covers key UK government departments, e.g. HM Treasury, Dept of Health, ODPM, Dept for Work and Pensions and the Pensions Commission • Expert academic group instigated in 2005 • GROS also consult Scottish experts and Scottish Departments

8. Actual and assumed total fertility rates,1970 to 2025

9. Scottish fertility assumptions • Average completed family falls from around 1.90 children per woman born in the late 1950s to 1.65 for those born in the 1990s and later • This results in the projected number of births slowly decreasing over the next 25 years • Long-term assumption of 1.65 is increased from previous projections, assumptions for first few years are higher

10. Mortality Projections • Set target rates of mortality improvement for some future year (target yr) • Target year is 25th year of projection (ie 2031 for 2006-based projections) • Target improvements in 2031 assumed to be 1% pa for all ages for both males and females, improving at this rate from 2031 • People born between 1923 and 1940 will experience higher rates of mortality improvement

11. Comparison of projected smoothed percentage reduction in death rates by age, UK,2003 - 2004 Males

12. Rationale for assumptions Target rate of improvement • average rate of improvement over 20th century approximately 1.0% per annum Change to long-term assumptions • continued evidence that past assumptions have underestimated long-term mortality improvements • view of UK experts

13. Period expectation of life at birth, Males,1981 - 2044

14. Period expectation of life at birth, Females,1981 - 2044

15. Scottish mortality assumptions • Mortality rates will continue to decrease but Scotland will continue to have higher rates than the rest of the UK • Life expectancy at birth is projected to increase • Males: 74.6 in 2004-06 to 80.5 in 2030-31 • Females: 79.6 in 2004-06 to 84.9 in 2030-31

16. Deaths, Scotland, actual and projected,1951-2031

17. Migration assumptions • Model of IPS flows • Allowances for migrants not covered by the IPS • e.g. asylum seekers, Ireland • Distribution of international migration between UK countries based on past trends • Recent changes in ONS following a Quality Review of International Migration has introduced changes in the estimation of international migration for Scotland. • Cross-border migration assumptions based on past NHSCR data

18. Migration assumptions • Increase in long-term assumptions from 145,000 to 190,000 for UK and from 4,000 to 8,500 for Scotland • Higher net inflows in the first six years of the projections, reflecting the recent (historically high) levels of in-migration

19. A useful way to see the changing age structure of Scotland’s population is to look at population pyramids.These show how the post war and 1960s baby-boomers contribute to the ageing of the population.

20. Population Pyramid, Scotland, by single year of age

21. Population Pyramid, Scotland, by single year of age

22. Population Pyramid, Scotland, by single year of age

23. Population Pyramid, Scotland, by single year of age

24. Population Pyramid, Scotland, by single year of age

25. Population Pyramid, Scotland, by single year of age

26. Sub-national patterns

27. Age structure

28. Life Expectancy at Birth, Males, 2004-2006

29. Future plans

30. Summary • Publication of subnational projections • Review of subnational projections • Publication of population estimates over 90 years • Evaluation of alternative sources

31. Contact information GROS Customer services Email: customer@gro-scotland.gsi.gov.uk Tel: 0131 314 4243

32. Thankyou!

33. Age Structure Scotland’s total population has been stable . There are, however, more dramatic trends apparent in the age structure of Scotland’s population.

34. Children (0-15)

35. Children aged under 16, Scotland, 1951-2004

36. Children aged under 16, actual and projected, 1951-2031

37. Working Age (16-59/64)

38. Working age (16-59/64) population, Scotland, 1951-2004

39. Working age (16-59/64)1 population, actual and projected, Scotland, 1951-2004. 1 Between 2010 and 2020 the retirement age for women will rise from 60 to 65

40. Pension Age (60/65+)

41. Number of people aged 75+, actual and projected, Scotland, 1951-2031. 2004 based projections

42. Pension age population (60/65+), Scotland, 1951-2004

43. Pension age population (60/65+)1, actual and projected, Scotland, 1951-2031. 1 Between 2010 and 2020 the retirement age for women will rise from 60 to 65