Brazil and Venezuela: Gradualism versus Radicalism

1. Brazil and Venezuela:Gradualism versus Radicalism Maxwell A. Cameron UBC Political Science 332

2. Leftist Victories 1998-2009 • Chavez (1998, 2006) • Lula (2002, 2006) • Kirchner (2003) • Vasquez (2004) • Morales (2005, 2009) • Bachelet (2006) • Ortega (2006) • Correa (2006) • Lugo (2007) • Kirchner (2007) • Funes (2009) • Mujica (2009)

3. Alternative Models for the Left • Brazil under Lula • Venezuela under Chavez

4. pragmatic, cautious, seeking leadership on world stage • Lula comes from a trade union background

5. radical, unpredictable, confrontation seeking with the US • Chavez comes from a military background

6. Are they in competition? • Brazil has MERCOSUR, encompassing the southern cone created in 1980s, designed to serve as an alternative to NAFTA or negotiation platform with other regions • Venezuela has ALBA (the Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas), created to reinforce the alliances between Cuba, Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador, Nicaragua, and various Caribbean states, as a more radical alternative to the FTAA, Summits, OAS, etc.

7. or alliance? • Banco del Sur, Telesur • UNASUR • Honduras: role of Brazilian Embassy, support of Chavez for Zelaya • OAS and new “Community” formed in Cancun

8. Gradualism vs. Revolution • Skidmore and Smith say Brazil is the “land of the future”… they forgot the punch line: “and always will be.” • Venezuela is the land of perpetual revolution. And, of course: “plus ca change plus la meme chose.”

9. Brazil • Pop. 200 million • Approx. size of US (3 million sq. miles) • Ethnicity: mix of white; mulatto; black; and indigenous • Literacy 89% • GNP $2 trillion (no. 9 in world) • Per capita $10,300 • Gini index 0.57

10. Unequal division of income and wealth Advanced sectors & huge underdeveloped areas Space program: manufactures & launches satellites, jets Embraer, one of the largest aircraft manufacturers in the world Also extreme poverty Brazil has been called Belindia (Belgium within India)

11. Despite Extremes, a History of Gradualism • Partly due to colonial experience: • Portuguese rulers found no highly developed native civilization, nor fabulous wealth • Independence in 1822 did not involve large-scale conflict

12. Gradual Shift to Republic • First regime a constitutional monarchy, not a republic • Dom Pedro I (1822-1831) - called for constituent assembly, then imposed a “mixed constitution” with some liberal guarantees. • Dom Pedro II (1840-1889) - War with Paraguay

13. Gradual Abolition of Slavery • At independence half the population of 4 million were slaves • 1871 law of the free womb • 1885 freed older slaves • 1888 golden law: final abolition

14. Collapse of Republic • First republic (1889-1930) - oligarchic state • Suffrage restricted to literate adult males (voters around 4-6 percent of population) • The “politics of governors” at the national level (twenty states in a federation) • Coronelismo (rule of rural bosses, or colonels) at local level • Crisis after World War I due to elite power struggles • Crash of 1929 hits Brazil hard

15. Getulio Vargas and ‘Lite’ Fascism • October 1930 coup led to Vargas’ Estado Novo • Revoked constitutional guarantees in 1935 • 1937 inaugurates a new authoritarian constitution • Corporatist regime • Incorporation of labour • Period of ISI • Vargas deposed in 1945 • Vargas returns (1950-54) under Second Republic (1946-1964) on PTB ticket • 1954 commits suicide

16. Military Rule: BA ‘Lite’ • Brazilian generals take power in 1964, act against Goulart, Vargas’ former minister of labour. • Collegial and institutional system • Threat of revolution low, level of repression moderate • Elections at state level continue • Economic miracle: 1968-1974: 10% growth • But also international debt (Brazil not oil exporter) • Rise of militant labor in late 1970s: • Emergence of Worker’s Party (PT) under Lula • Gradual decompression or liberalization

17. Gradual Democratization • Campaign for “Directas ja!” • Tancredo Neves, of main opposition party PMDB, elected 1985, then dies. • Sarney replaces Neves (1985-90) • Collor (1990-92): corruption and impeachment • Franco (1992-1995) • Cardoso (1995-2002) - PMDB • Lula (elected 2002, re-elected 2006) - PT

18. Lula’s PT in power • Continuity and change • PT enjoys partisan support of 1 in 4 voters: a relatively well organized party • Idea of doing politics differently: Porto Alegre model of participatory budgeting • Combined with the realism of machine politics • Corruption scandal of 2005 did not affect Lula • Social policies: Conditional cash transfer (Bolsa Familia) benefit millions

19. Venezuela • Pop. 26 million • Approx. 2 x Calif • Ethnicity: Mestizo • Literacy: 93% • GDP: 355 b • Per capita $13k • Gini index 0.48

20. Colonial Legacies • Like Brazil, no great pre-Colombian civilizations or natural resources • Gradually extended control over diverse, scattered indigenous groups • No sedentary peasantry develops

21. Yet Violent Independence Struggle • Bourbon reforms empower Caracas, which leads struggle for independence throughout region • Declaration of patria bobo in 1811 • Leadership of Bolivar • “frightful levels of physical and economic devastation” (Skidmore & Smith, p. 222) • To win support from blacks, slavery abolished • Yet no major social revolution

22. Volatile Republic • Political rule of caudillos, coffee growers, and ranchers • Civil war (or federalist war) in mid 19th century • And intervention • Gunboat diplomacy at end of 19th and early 20th century. Roosevelt Corollary to Monroe Doctrine (Skidmore & Smith p. 225) • Juan Vicente Gomez rules (1908-1935) • Venezuela discovers oil • 1929 Venezuela world’s largest oil exporter • Becomes a petro-state: political system shaped by dependence on oil (Skidmore & Smith, p. 227).

23. Coups and Counter-Coups • After Gomez’s death, Accion Democratic (AD) emerges under Romulo Betancourt. • Military governs until 1945 • October 1945 coup and alliance of AD and COPEI and another party (trienio) • Elections in 1947 won by AD (Romulo Gallegos) • 1948 coup by Marcos Perez Jimenez - brutal dictator • Rigged elections in 1958, leads to ouster

24. Stability Under the Pact of Punto Fijo • Power sharing among major parties • Called “partyarchy” by critics • Economic moderation • Support for US in Cold War • Betancourt linked to Alliance for Progress • 1974 Carlos Andres Perez • OPEC and wind-fall gains

25. Dramatic Breakdown of Punto Fijo Pact • CAP elected in 1989, “gran viraje” • Caracazo • Coup attempts in 1992 • Impeachment of CAP in 1993 for embezzling $17m. • Constitutional reforms fail under Caldera

26. Chavez’s Bolivarian ‘Revolution’ • 1998 rise of Chavez and MVR • Constituent Assembly and 1999 constitution • 2002 coup attempt • 2004 survives recall • Re-elected in 2006 • Shifts further left in 2007 • Referendum in 2009

27. Latin America’s Two Lefts? • Lula vs. Chavez: Gradual vs. Radical • Reflect the countries in which they emerge • Brazil has tradition of gradualism • Venezuela has tradition of radicalism • These differences reveal themselves in recurrent patterns • Independence (constitutional monarchy vs. caudillismo) • Relationship between the military and parties (Estado Novo vs. Gomez dictatorship) • Gradual democratization vs. dependence on oil and political pacts • Left parties vs. movements