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7 January 2008 Tornado at the Rolla-Vichy National Airport

7 January 2008 Tornado at the Rolla-Vichy National Airport. John Gagan NOAA • National Weather Service Springfield, Missouri. Outline. Event overview Focus on tornadic supercell affecting KVIH Reflectivity, SRM and Base Velocity Imagery Warning decision process

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7 January 2008 Tornado at the Rolla-Vichy National Airport

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  1. 7 January 2008 Tornadoat the Rolla-Vichy National Airport John Gagan NOAA • National Weather Service Springfield, Missouri

  2. Outline • Event overview • Focus on tornadic supercell affecting KVIH • Reflectivity, SRM and Base Velocity Imagery • Warning decision process • Role of Heuristics (“gut feelings”) • KVIH observations (1 min, 5 sec) – direct hit! • Pics from Survey

  3. Event Overview • 12 hours of tornadoes, hail, wind and flooding • Watches: 3 Tornado Watches (1 PDS), 1 Severe • Warnings: 62 Tornado, 33 Severe, 4 Flash Flood • 161 Severe Weather Reports • 33 Tornadoes • 3 Fatalities, Numerous Injuries • In previous Januaries from 1950-2007, only 5 Tornadoes were reported in SW Missouri

  4. Event Overview

  5. Event Overview 250 mb 00z January 8th

  6. Event Overview 500 mb 00z January 8th

  7. Event Overview 850 mb 00z January 8th

  8. SGF RAOB 00z January 8th

  9. Loop of Event

  10. 33 Tornadoes in January! Only 5 tornadoes reported in January from 1950-2007!

  11. LSX SGF

  12. KLSX WSR 88D • KVIH is ~5200 ft AGL • Rank 5-6 Meso • non continuous • No TVS • Warning decision ~0325 UTC

  13. From IEM COW – Iowa State University

  14. Warning Decision • Quickly transitioned from coordinator role to warning operator • Bathroom breaks!!!! • Warning operator fatigue • Assigned to Sector 3 (central MO) • Meso was weakening • No recent (<30 min) reports from the storm • Why continue to warn?

  15. Warning Decision • Ultimately, the warning decision hinged on a heuristic (gut feeling) • Meso began to reorganize/strengthen • Reflectivity structure in tact • Not much info < 8000 ft • Past history – numerous reports of damage – cyclic • “Warn on a cyclic supercell until it’s someone else’s problem.” • Great reference • “Gut Feelings: The Intelligence of the Unconscious” • Gerd Gigerenzer

  16. Vichy Tornado Track KVIH

  17. KVIH Takes a Direct Hit! 0347 UTC To 0400 UTC 2 Minute Wind 5 Second Wind • Wind direction switched from ESE to NW • Wind speed changed from 8 to 84 knots • Wind direction switched from ESE to WNW • Wind speed changed from 5 to 44 knots

  18. Douglas DC-3 WWII Era Planes KVIH

  19. KVIH

  20. EF Rating • Main casualty was trees • A few hard and soft wood trees uprooted • DIs 27 and 28, highest DOD was 3 • Most extensive damage was to the destroyed mobile home • Not tied down well – Pushed and rolled • Debris field scattered over 200 yds • DI 3 (single wide), DOD 9 (lower bound) • Damage consistent with high end EF-1 • VIH ASOS ~ 1-1.5 mi west of mobile home damage • 5 second wind speed well within EF-1 range • 13 mile path, max width 100 yds, max winds 110 mph

  21. Acknowledgements • Ron Przybylinski – LSX radar • Kelsey Angle – Prior work on event • The SGF office for a job well done

  22. Thank You John.Gagan@noaa.gov

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