NCEP Contributions to NOAA Climate Services

1. NCEP Contributions to NOAA Climate Services

2. A Climate Service in NOAA NWS Collaborating on Climate Services NCEP Contributions to Climate Services Outline

3. A Climate Service in NOAA

4. The Rising Demand for Climate Services 4 - There is an urgent and growing need for reliable, trusted, transparent and timely climate information across all sectors of our economy. - There is an urgent and growing need for reliable, trusted, transparent and timely climate information across all sectors of our economy.

5. 9/17/2010 5 ��NOAA�s intent to establish a new office called the (NOAA) Climate Service. This would create a single office for climate science and service bringing together the climate assets and capabilities that are currently dispersed in multiple units across the agency.� �We are announcing the intent to reorganize existing assets to make NOAA�s Climate Services more responsive to the needs of those who use our services. While additional funds will be needed to increase NOAA�s core climate capabilities going forward to meet growing demands, the proposed reorganization is independent of new resources.� �The proposed reorganization would retain the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research recognizing the unique importance of a dedicated science and research enterprise with in NOAA.� February 8th 2010 DOC � NOAA Announcement This slide is to orient us by recalling what NOAA and DOC said on February 8th when we announced the intent to form a NOAA Climate Service. These statements also reflect our design criteria: Establish a climate service Clear lines of accountability Enhance climate program coordination Promote user engagement Strengthen NOAA Science Establish Science Leadership Enhance cross line science coordination and engagement Implement the Administration�s priorities Promote efficient implementation and operation Position NCS to met current and future strategic challengesThis slide is to orient us by recalling what NOAA and DOC said on February 8th when we announced the intent to form a NOAA Climate Service. These statements also reflect our design criteria: Establish a climate service Clear lines of accountability Enhance climate program coordination Promote user engagement Strengthen NOAA Science Establish Science Leadership Enhance cross line science coordination and engagement Implement the Administration�s priorities Promote efficient implementation and operation Position NCS to met current and future strategic challenges

6. Proposed NOAA Climate Service 6 These are the pieces that would move into the NCS, based on our February 8th proposal. Since then, we have been working to develop an organizational wiring diagram, and functional descriptions for the new line office. These are the pieces that would move into the NCS, based on our February 8th proposal. Since then, we have been working to develop an organizational wiring diagram, and functional descriptions for the new line office.

7. NAPA Proposal for NCS 7 Highlighted are CPC and IOOS. These are the two major areas where NAPA�s organizational proposal differs from NOAA. NOAA does not include these two programs within the NCS proposal. NAPA also includes a number of proposals to help with Implementation: The Academy Panel recommends that NOAA hire a Deputy Assistant Administrator for Transition and Change to provide a full-time, systematic focus on managing start-up issues at the new agency. Openly compete all SES positions To fill personnel gaps and bring on new skill sets, encourage details from other Line Offices, across agencies, the private sector, and state and local governments. The Panel recommends NOAA continue the development of its climate portal, and plan for investments necessary to operate a virtual clearinghouse for federal climate information. Highlighted are CPC and IOOS. These are the two major areas where NAPA�s organizational proposal differs from NOAA. NOAA does not include these two programs within the NCS proposal. NAPA also includes a number of proposals to help with Implementation: The Academy Panel recommends that NOAA hire a Deputy Assistant Administrator for Transition and Change to provide a full-time, systematic focus on managing start-up issues at the new agency. Openly compete all SES positions To fill personnel gaps and bring on new skill sets, encourage details from other Line Offices, across agencies, the private sector, and state and local governments. The Panel recommends NOAA continue the development of its climate portal, and plan for investments necessary to operate a virtual clearinghouse for federal climate information.

8. 9/20/2010 8 Vision By providing science and services, the Climate Service envisions an informed society capable of anticipating and responding to climate and its impacts. Mission Improve understanding and prediction of changes in climate and promote a climate-resilient society by: Monitoring climate trends, conducting research, and developing models to strengthen our knowledge of the changing climate and its impacts on our physical, economic, and societal systems Providing authoritative and timely information products and services about climate change, climate variability, and impacts Informing decision-making and management at the local, state, regional, national, and international levels The Climate Service delivers products and services in collaboration with public, private, and academic partners to maximize social, economic, and environmental benefits. Climate Service Vision and Mission

9. 9 National Weather Service:Collaborating on Climate Services

10. Goals/Objective Support CS vision/mission Key challenges: Climate/Weather linkage for short term predictions Production of climate information to meet national, regional and local needs User engagement User requirements and service delivery Preparedness vs Adaptation Training/education of workforce 10

11. Major Activities Climate Monitoring Climate Monitoring Summit (CPC led), including report, inventory and definition Enhance Climate Portal Models Upgrade of real-time CFS v2 Joining EUROSIP (ECMWF, UKMet, Meteo France) Field/Delivery of Climate Services RCSDs facilitate user engagement in partnership with the NWS field structure Team approach for decision support at national, regional and local levels Training for WFO/RFC personnel 11

13. NCEP Contributions to Climate Services

14. NCEP Contributions to Implement The Climate Service 14 FY11 Priority Areas Science Predictions and Projections Observations Data Monitoring Science and Services Partnerships Regional Communication Assessments Attribution Focus on Execution NCEP FY11 AOP activities Integration/ Redirection NCEP FY11 Headlines Coupled Forecast System (CFSv2 and CFSRR) Multi Model Ensemble (CSF+EUROSIP) Climate Monitoring & Climate Portal

15. CS Core Capabilities Address Societal Challenges This diagram depicts the strategic framework of the proposed NCS organization. It shows how the various strategic aspects of the NCS relate to each other. Societal concerns inform the three core capabilities. Partners from across the broader climate community both contribute to and benefit from the core capabilities. Research and service are a vital part of all three capabilities but play differing roles in each capability. The core capabilities support basic services in a variety of sectors. The core capabilities also support the initial five societal challenges, which receive expanded focus. Next, we�ll look at the 3 core capabilities and the 5 initial societal challenges in a little more detail Then, we�ll look at the prioritization framework, the collaboration approach with NWS, and how the NCS supports partners.This diagram depicts the strategic framework of the proposed NCS organization. It shows how the various strategic aspects of the NCS relate to each other. Societal concerns inform the three core capabilities. Partners from across the broader climate community both contribute to and benefit from the core capabilities. Research and service are a vital part of all three capabilities but play differing roles in each capability. The core capabilities support basic services in a variety of sectors. The core capabilities also support the initial five societal challenges, which receive expanded focus. Next, we�ll look at the 3 core capabilities and the 5 initial societal challenges in a little more detail Then, we�ll look at the prioritization framework, the collaboration approach with NWS, and how the NCS supports partners.

16. NCEP Contributions to Implement the Climate Service FY11 Initiatives of Strategic Importance to the CS NOAA Climate Monitoring Sea Level Prediction System FY11 Transition Activities Reanalysis and Reforecasts Water Cycle International Delivery of CFS (India, China, COLA, ..) FY11 Activities to Sustain Climate Operations Climate Prediction Products and Services Capacity Building (Food Security, Health Vectors, Training) 16

17. NOAA Climate Monitoring- 1 Outcomes (Long-Term) Enhance coordination of climate monitoring activities across NOAA, including overlaps and gaps, key indices, users and outreach Enhance NOAA Climate Portal Deliverables (FY11) Climate Monitoring Summit, report, inventory, definition Enhanced climate monitoring products (atm., ocean, surface) Milestones (selected) Lead Climate Monitoring Summit (Q1FY11) Complete CMS Report, including inventory, and monitoring definition (Q2FY11) Provide support for the expansion of the NOAA Climate Portal (Q1-Q4FY11) Performance Measures Number of climate monitoring tools developed to address gaps Predecisional: not for distribution or attribution 17

18. NOAA Climate Services Portal 18 One-stop access for NOAA�s climate information Multiple audiences so multiple avenues to access information ClimateWatch Magazine Data and Services Understanding Climate Education Climate Dashboard In response to users calling for simple, easy to use access to NOAA climate information, and the question� �why can�t I access what NOAA�s got from one spot?� NOAA has responded with the Climate Portal. Thanks to many of you who have been working on, or contributed to this important enhancement to NOAA�s climate services. WWW.CLIMATE.GOV The website recognizes the need to serve multiple audiences � with varying needs for climate information, and varying methods for seeking it on-line � we developed four Web pathways (tabs) to serve four different audiences: (1) peer communities/data users (including scientists, decision managers, businesses, and sectoral communities); (2) the general public; (3) educators; and (4) policy leaders. Thus, there will be four content sections: (1) Climate Data and Services, (2) ClimateWatch magazine, (3) Climate Education, and (4) an Understanding Climate section. The Global Climate Dashboard will provide synoptic, graphical depictions of climate change and climate variability. And I encourage all of you to continue to make contributions to enhance the portal going forward, and make more of NOAA�s information available to the broader public. The development of this portal has been a cross-agency effort and I want to recognize the hard work of the many who made this happen. In response to users calling for simple, easy to use access to NOAA climate information, and the question� �why can�t I access what NOAA�s got from one spot?� NOAA has responded with the Climate Portal. Thanks to many of you who have been working on, or contributed to this important enhancement to NOAA�s climate services. WWW.CLIMATE.GOV The website recognizes the need to serve multiple audiences � with varying needs for climate information, and varying methods for seeking it on-line � we developed four Web pathways (tabs) to serve four different audiences: (1) peer communities/data users (including scientists, decision managers, businesses, and sectoral communities); (2) the general public; (3) educators; and (4) policy leaders. Thus, there will be four content sections: (1) Climate Data and Services, (2) ClimateWatch magazine, (3) Climate Education, and (4) an Understanding Climate section. The Global Climate Dashboard will provide synoptic, graphical depictions of climate change and climate variability. And I encourage all of you to continue to make contributions to enhance the portal going forward, and make more of NOAA�s information available to the broader public. The development of this portal has been a cross-agency effort and I want to recognize the hard work of the many who made this happen.

19. Sea Level Prediction System - 1 Outcomes (Long-Term) A Sea Level Prediction System that provides decision makers with data and information to assess and understand vulnerabilities to coastal hazards and a changing climate Deliverables (FY11) Demonstrable progress towards seamless sea level modeling prediction system Milestones NOS: Needs assessment for global to local SL change prediction system (Q4) NCEP: Investigate feasibility for seasonal sea-level forecasts with CFS* (Q4FY11) Predecisional: not for distribution or attribution 19

20. Transition Activities -1 Outcomes (Long-Term) Reanalysis and Reforecast: CFS initialization, calibration, prediction, monitoring Water Cycle: CFS land model for biogeochemical cycles / ecosystem modeling International: Improve CFS with partners (China, India, COLA, etc.) Deliverables (FY11) Initiate CFSv2 Lite Reanalysis Project Extend NOAH land model in CFSv2 for global streamflow prediction Support Delivery of CFSv2 to India Milestones (selected) Initiate production of CFSv2 Lite Reanalysis (1948-present) (Q2FY11) Transition NLDAS code for global streamflow prediction (Q4FY11) Support International Delivery of CFS to India (Q3FY11) Performance Measures Cumulative number of years of past and present climate data reanalyzed based on CFSv2 Predecisional: not for distribution or attribution 20

21. Sustain Climate Operations- 1 Outcomes (Long-Term) Deliver operational climate prediction products and services Connect climate variability (e.g. ENSO) to extremes and develop new outlook products (e.g. heat & cold waves; floods and droughts; etc.) Deliverables (FY11) Improved statistical and dynamical forecast models Operational climate outlooks (e.g. Atlantic Hurricane Seasonal Outlooks; US P&T) Milestones Climate Prediction Products and Services (selected) Develop & test a seasonal MME forecast tool that combines CFS & EUROSIP (Q4FY11) Understand causes for improved MJO prediction skill in CFSv2 to guide CFSv3 (Q3FY11) Issue and update the 2011 Atlantic and Pacific Hurricane Seasonal Outlooks (Q3FY11) Capacity Building Establish International Monsoon Forecaster Training Desk (Q3FY11) Host / train at least 16 visitors per year through NCEP International Desks (Q4FY11) Performance Measures U.S. Seasonal Temperature Forecasts Predecisional: not for distribution or attribution 21

22. Extras Predecisional: not for distribution or attribution 22

24. Include Impacts of Changing Climate InWeather and Seasonal Forecasts Investigation of ISI-Decadal linkages CFS capability to recreate decadal temperature trend

25. With respect to the MJO, version2 of the CFS extends the useful skill from about Day 5 to about Day 15 and beyond, providing hope for forecasts for week three period.With respect to the MJO, version2 of the CFS extends the useful skill from about Day 5 to about Day 15 and beyond, providing hope for forecasts for week three period.