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FUTURE PREDICTION OF SURFACE OZONE OVER EAST ASIA UP TO 2020

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/p3/emission.htm. FUTURE PREDICTION OF SURFACE OZONE OVER EAST ASIA UP TO 2020. Using CMAQ and REAS*. *Regional Emission inventory in ASia for past and future, developed at FRCGC. Kazuyo Yamaji and Hajime Akimoto. (kazuyo@jamstec.go.jp).

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FUTURE PREDICTION OF SURFACE OZONE OVER EAST ASIA UP TO 2020

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  1. The 6th Annual CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, October 1-3, 2007 http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/p3/emission.htm FUTURE PREDICTION OF SURFACE OZONE OVER EAST ASIA UP TO 2020 Using CMAQ and REAS* *Regional Emission inventory in ASia for past and future, developed at FRCGC Kazuyo Yamajiand Hajime Akimoto (kazuyo@jamstec.go.jp) Frontier Research Center for Global Change (FRCGC), JAMSTEC, Japan Toshimasa Ohara and Jun-ichi Kurokawa National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan Itsushi Uno Kyushu University, Japan

  2. The 6th Annual CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, October 1-3, 2007 WORSE CASE? Future prediction base year, 2000 policy failure case (PFC),reference (REF), policy succeed case (PSC) NOx emission trends in Asia not consider rapid increase, 2000-2003 http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/p3/emission.htm

  3. The 6th Annual CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, October 1-3, 2007 Objective of this simulation To investigate future O3 changes caused by anthropogenic emission changes (not consider BB emission changes) Simulation cases Emission Inventory Boundary condition Met. VOC (natural) Anthrop. BB REAS_2000 Past 2000 CHASER GEIA_1990 ACESS_2000 REAS_2010/2020 Future 2000 CHASER GEIA_1990 ACESS_2000 Future emission scenarios (REAS)* • For China, using 3 emission scenarios PSC (policy succeed case) REF (reference) PFC (policy failed case) • For the other countries REF (reference) *Ohara et al., Atmos. Chem. Phys., 2007 http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/p3/emission.htm Objective of this simulation To investigate future O3 changes caused by anthropogenic emission changes (not consider BB emission changes)

  4. The 6th Annual CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, October 1-3, 2007 http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/p3/emission.htm NOx and NMVOC emissions (Tg/yr)

  5. The 6th Annual CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, October 1-3, 2007 http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/p3/emission.htm NOx and NMVOC emission maps 2000 Emission changes (2000-2020)

  6. The 6th Annual CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, October 1-3, 2007 Outline of this simulation - Emission Inventory - Anthropogenic:(annually) 2000, 2010, 2020 -Meteorological Field- REASv1.1 (FRCGC) NCEP1x1 met. data (2000) Biomass burning: (annually) ACESS 2000 Biogenic NMVOC: (monthly) GEIA 1990 RAMS v4.4 in put (off line) (every 3 hour) in put (off line) - Boundary condition - CHASER CMAQ v4.4 (Global Chemistry Transport Model) Sudo et al., 2002 Gas-Phase Chemistry: SAPRC-99 (monthly) Aerosol Chemistry: AERO3 in put (off line) - Regional Chemistry Transport Model -

  7. The 6th Annual CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, October 1-3, 2007 [CMAQ domain] Horizontal Resolution: 78×68 (grids), 80km mesh Vertical Resolution: 14 layers (up to 23km) [RAMS domain] Horizontal Resolution: 100×90(grids), 80km mesh Vertical Resolution: 22 layers (up to 23km) CMAQ domain RAMS domain Outline of this simulation - MODEL AREA - Area: East Asia

  8. The 6th Annual CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, October 1-3, 2007 Comparison of modeled and observed O3 Tappi Oki Happo Mt. Tai Hedo

  9. Japanese sites in 2000 The 6th Annual CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, October 1-3, 2007 correlation coefficients: R=0.85 (for YR.) correlation coefficients: R=0.74 (for YR.) correlation coefficients: R=0.72 (for YR.) correlation coefficients: R=0.61 (for YR.) JAN JAN JAN JAN FEB FEB FEB FEB MAR MAR MAR MAR APR APR APR APR MAY MAY MAY MAY JUN JUN JUN JUN JUL JUL JUL JUL AUG AUG AUG AUG SEP SEP SEP SEP OCT OCT OCT OCT NOV NOV NOV NOV DEC DEC DEC DEC 0.28 0.45 0.21 0.17 0.40 0.43 0.58 0.72 0.37 0.63 0.41 0.72 0.58 0.85 0.65 0.52 0.57 - 0.81 0.44 0.45 0.82 0.81 0.90 0.64 0.85 0.77 0.74 0.47 0.56 0.53 0.52 0.90 0.66 0.88 0.53 0.44 0.83 0.55 0.38 0.68 0.69 0.78 0.46 0.41 0.49 0.29 0.74 Observation data from Acid Deposition Monitoring Network in East Asia, EANET

  10. The 6th Annual CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, October 1-3, 2007 Chinese site (Mt. Tai), obs. (2004,2005) and model (2000) Mt. Tai Observation data from Pochanart et al., 2007

  11. The 6th Annual CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, October 1-3, 2007 RESULTS - Yearly averaged O3 (below 2km) - O3 changes (2000-2010) O3 changes (2000-2020)

  12. The 6th Annual CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, October 1-3, 2007 RESULTS - Monthly averaged O3 (<2km) - -2000- -2020REF-

  13. The 6th Annual CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, October 1-3, 2007 RESULTS - Monthly averaged O3 in June (<2km) -

  14. The 6th Annual CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, October 1-3, 2007 RESULTS AOT40 (Accumulated Exposure Over Threshold of 40ppb) - For tree: Critical Level 8-21ppm h - 1-4 times of Critical Level 75-85ppmh 20-80 ppm h 70-80ppmh Critical Level 80-120*ppmh * More than 5 times of Critical Level

  15. The 6th Annual CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, October 1-3, 2007 RESULTS Which precursor’s change, NOx or NMVOC, is sensitive to O3 growth? CEC: Central East China S1:2010PSC, R1:2010REF, F1:2010PFC, S2:2010PSC, R2:2010REF, F2:2010PFC larger NOx sensitivity and smaller NMVOC sensitivity over CEC in June. *with large anthropogenic emission increases !!

  16. The 6th Annual CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, October 1-3, 2007 SUMMARY • Past and future O3 over East Asia has been simulated by using CMAQ and REAS. • This model system can capture O3 concentrations at monitoring sites in East Asia. • REAS PFC with large NOx and NMVOC increases in China will bring about higher O3 in 2020. But, NOx decrease (REAS PSC in 2020) will be helpful to decrease of O3 in China. Additionally, NOx decreases will be also helpful to control O3 increase over East Asia. • Especially in June (with high O3), REAS REF and PFC will bring about considerable high O3 at the North China Plain in 2020. • Based on these model experiments, over CEC in June, O3 concentration is largely affected by NOx emission increases but is not sensitive to NMVOC emission increases.

  17. The 6th Annual CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, October 1-3, 2007

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