Make modern space science models available to the research community ... Science-based validation: Compare model output to measurements for select events, detailed analysis ...
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Slide 2:Welcome to the CCMC!
Overview: Organization and implementation Models and operational relevance V&V activities Software infrastructure FutureCCMC Activities Evaluate scientific research models to address National Space Weather needs Make modern space science models available to the research community Support the development of advanced models Focus on models with space weather operations benefits Develop prototype real-time systems Support space weather education Transfer evaluated models to operational National Space Weather Agencies Decision Flow directs informs Research Community Operations Community recommendations, needs US National Space Weather Program Council US Committee for Space Weather Science and Operations Advisory Committees needs requirements at GSFC Center
Slide 5:CCMC Steering Committee
Members: NASA Headquarters Dr. Chuck Holmes (Co-Chair) NSF Dr. Paul Bellaire (Co-Chair) AF/XOW Maj. Mark Adair AFOSR Maj. David Byers AFRL Dr. Nick Arge NASA/GSFC Dr. Michael Hesse NASA Headquarters Dr. Madhulika Guhathakurta NOAA/SEC Dr. Terry Onsager NSF Dr. Bob Robinson ONR Dr. Bob McCoy SMC/CI Mr. Kevin Scro (Facilitator) Technical Advisors: AFIT Maj. Devin Della-Rose AFSPC Mr. Kelly HandModels: Overview MAS PFSS Helio. Tomog. ENLIL Exosph. SW BATS-R-US Open- GGCM Fok RC CTIP SAMI2 Weimer2K WSA SWMF
Slide 7:Solar Models
Potential Field Source Surface (Luhmann, UCB) - Global solar magnetic field structure MAS (Linker et al – SAIC) – Global solar magnetic field and plasma structure Operational significance: Now: Solar wind, connection to active regions (solar energetic particles) Future: Solar eruptions, CMEs P. MacNeice, L. Rastaetter Density, flows
Slide 8:Solar/Heliospheric Models
WSA (Wang-Sheeley-Arge) – Corona + empirical/kinematic solar wind Operational significance: Solar wind forecasting P. MacNeice
Slide 9:Heliospheric Models
ENLIL (Odstrcil – NOAA) – Complete, physics-based, heliosphere ( 30rs – 10AU) Heliospheric Tomography (Jackson,Hick – UCSD) Operational significance: Now: Solar wind forecasts, connection to active regions (solar energetic particles) Future: Solar eruptions, CMEs, higher fidelity forecasts P. MacNeice, L. Rastaetter, M. Kuznetsova, A. Chulaki
Slide 10:Forecasting : Sun to Earth
Photospheric Synoptic magnetograms WSA – potential field + equatorial current sheet model (1-21.5rs) ENLIL - 3D MHD Heliosphere (21.5rs – 1,2 or 10AU) Running in realtime P. MacNeice, L. Rastaetter
Slide 11:Magnetospheric Models
Global Magnetohydrodynamic Models (2 Models, UMichigan and UNH) – plasmas and electromagnetic fields equatorial plane: magnetopause and geosynchronous orbit Operational significance: S/C charging, S/C orientation, information transfer solar-wind/ionosphere L. Rastaetter, M. Kuznetsova
Slide 12:Inner Magnetospheric Models
Ring Current and Radiation Belt Models (3 Models, GSFC and UMichigan) – high energy particle fluxes (~keV – MeV) Operational significance: S/C charging, Single event upsets Radiation up to MeV energies L. Rastaetter, M. Kuznetsova 150keV protons
Slide 13:Ionospheric Models
Operational significance: Now: Ionospheric TEC Ground magnetic perturbations Polar cap absorption and radiation Future: Ionospheric Scintillations M. Kuznetsova, L. Rastaetter NmF2 neDecision makers and operational agencies need model evaluations - Science-based validation: Compare model output to measurements for select events, detailed analysis - Metrics studies: Repeatable comparison between model output and measurements, “one number” Need to be blind studies, performed by independent agent Transition to Operations: V&V and Metrics V&V: Simulate Polar Cap Size open FL closed FL Boundary between open and closed field lines (FL) open FL VIS Earth Camera 15 July 2000 20:20 UT Polar cap boundary observed by POLAR V&V: Simulate Polar Cap Size Rastaetter et al., 2005 V&V/R&D: Radiation Belt Modeling Los Alamos National Laboratory Satellite Data Improved Model Original Model 50 - 75 keV 75 - 105 keV 105 - 150 keV 150 - 225 keV 225 - 315 keV 315 - 500 keV 500 - 750 keV 0.75 - 1.1 MeV 1.1 - 1.3 MeV flux increase flux decrease/flat A. Chulaki, K. Keller Metrics: Ground Magnetic Perturbations ground magnetic measurements magnetic perturbations from model (10 mho) magnetic perturbations from model (5 mho) hour hour Storm day Storm day Day 2 Results Averaged Over 10 Stations Day 1 FHB Station FHB Station (THL SVS UPN GDH STF GHB FHB NAQ NRD SLO) ...establish absolute measure of model performance K. Keller, M. Kuznetsova, M. Hesse V&V: Solar Wind Prediction Period 1 Time (Days) Time (Days) Period 2 Density Velocity Black: ACE Measurements Red: Model Orange: Mean Heliospheric Tomography K. Keller, P. MacNeice V&V: Executing Models in Real Time L. Rastaetter Executing 24/7 on CCMC computing engines
Slide 21:Support the generation of advanced space science models Address Space Weather-relevant processes Collaborate with related activities (CISM, CSEM, ILWS…) Expand strong service to (international) research community Execute runs-on-request Provide ready access to model output with enhanced tools Includes mission support, e.g., STEREO Includes campaign support, e.g., IHY
Future Activities: Research Support
Slide 22:Future Activities: Operations Support
Provide tool by which science progress at NASA, NSF feeds into Space Weather operations Focus on science models with operational benefits Operator input to identify model needs Address immediate payoffs as well as strategic value models (e.g., solar forecasting) Provide expanded, independent model evaluations Obtain metrics, V&V procedures from operators Support GAIM V&V Perform priority evaluations for operations Provide rapid response service in emergencies Other opportunities for closer collaborations/tailored support Education: Coordination initiated with AFIT, USAFA Interacting with AFWA (LtCol. Cade, Maj. Nobis) Implementation: Installation design and support possible Tool development following operator needs CCMC ready to explore new ways to support