paul c bishop ph d managing director research national association of realtors
Download
Skip this Video
Download Presentation
Real Estate Market Outlook: Peering Through the Clouds

Loading in 2 Seconds...

play fullscreen
1 / 34

Real Estate Market Outlook: - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 302 Views
  • Uploaded on

Paul C. Bishop, Ph.D. Managing Director, Research NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS ®. Real Estate Market Outlook: Peering Through the Clouds. OHIO ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS ® Winter Conference January 14, 2008 . Overview. The Market Setting Sales are down and consumers are skittish

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about 'Real Estate Market Outlook:' - medwin


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript
paul c bishop ph d managing director research national association of realtors
Paul C. Bishop, Ph.D.

Managing Director, Research

NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Real Estate Market Outlook:Peering Through the Clouds

OHIO ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Winter Conference

January 14, 2008

overview
Overview
  • The Market Setting
    • Sales are down and consumers are skittish
  • The Outlook
    • Partly cloudy
  • What do Buyers and Sellers Expect from You in this Market?
    • Expertise and guidance
buyers and sellers are jittery about the u s economy
Buyers and Sellers are Jittery about the U.S. Economy
  • Unemployment: 5% (Dec), up from 4.7%
  • Job growth: +18,000 (Dec)
  • GDP: +4.9% (Q3)
  • Consumer spending: +2.8% (Q3)
  • Business investment: +9.3% (Q3)
  • Residential investment: -20.5% (Q3)
  • Exports: +19.1% (Q3)
  • Oil prices: $100/bbl
  • Stock market: Up, Down and Sideways
new construction has been hit hard
New Construction HasBeen Hit Hard

thousands of units

38% decline from peak

Source: U.S. Census

consumers rethink new home purchase plans
Consumers RethinkNew Home Purchase Plans

thousands of units

40% decline from peak

Source: U.S. Census

existing home sales have also fallen
Existing Home Sales Have Also Fallen

thousands of units

20% decline from peak

Source: NAR

more sellers than buyers rising inventory
More Sellers than Buyers = Rising Inventory

months supply

Source: U.S. Census, NAR

as a result prices have declined
As a Result PricesHave Declined

%

New Home Prices: -2.1%

Existing Home Prices: -1.9%

Source: NAR

but others are suffering
But Others are Suffering

Source: NAR, 2007Q3

tough job situation in ohio
Tough Job Situationin Ohio

thousands

Decline from peak:-195,000; -3.5%

Source: BLS

no upturn in existing home sales in ohio yet
No Upturn in Existing Home Sales in Ohio Yet

Q3 06 to Q3 07

U.S: -13.7%

Ohio: -11.6%

Indiana: -9.4%

Kentucky: -7.2%

Michigan: -4.0%

Pennsylvania: -3.2%

West Virginia: -19.0%

11% decline from peak

thousands of units

Source: NAR

subprime loan implosion
Subprime Loan Implosion
  • Homeowners facing higher resetting rates and foreclosures
  • Wall Street reassessing risk
  • Sub-prime brokers getting out or being pushed out
  • Potential home buyers left out in the cold
slide16

Mortgage Delinquencies:A Tale of Two Sectors

%

Stagnant prices limit ability to refinance out of high risk loans

Housing boom permits

re-financing and

lowers delinquency rate

Job losses push up

Delinquency rate

Source: Mortgage Bankers Assn

foreclosure rates far higher among subprime
Foreclosure Rates Far Higher Among Subprime

%

Source: Mortgage Bankers Assn (3Q07)

wide regional differences in foreclosure rates
Wide Regional Differences in Foreclosure Rates

%

Source: Mortgage Bankers Assn (3Q07)

highest foreclosure rates in the upper midwest
Highest Foreclosure Rates in the Upper Midwest

%

Source: Mortgage Bankers Assn (3Q07)

u s economic outlook
U.S. Economic Outlook

Source: NAR, January 2008 forecast

u s housing market outlook
U.S. HousingMarket Outlook

Source: NAR, January 2008 forecast

getting to know today s buyer and sellers
Getting to KnowToday’s Buyer and Sellers
  • In today’s market, what do buyers and sellers want?
    • First-time buyers are the leading edge of the home buying market
    • Evolving demographics influence who is in the market to purchase a home
    • Generational differences affect preferences for location, features, search process and reasons for buying or selling a home
what do buyers do first when looking for a home
What do Buyers do First When Looking for a Home?

91% used the Internet during their home search

Desire for a smaller home is one of the top reasons for buying

Over half blog or use social network sites at least a few times a week

Over half visited an open house

Source: 2007 NAR Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers

Age of Home Buyer

buyers look for information online
Buyers Look for Information Online…

Age of Home Buyer

Source: 2007 NAR Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers

but most find their agent through referrals
…But Most Find their Agent Through Referrals

Source: 2007 NAR Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers

sellers also depend on referrals when choosing an agent
Sellers Also Depend on Referrals When Choosing an Agent

Source: 2007 NAR Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers

what buyers want most from real estate agents
What Buyers Want Most from Real Estate Agents

Small differences among demographic groups

Source: 2007 NAR Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers

trust and reputation are key in buyers use of agent
Trust and Reputation are Key in Buyers’ Use of Agent

Source: 2007 NAR Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers

what sellers want most from real estate agents
What Sellers Want Most from Real Estate Agents

Source: 2007 NAR Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers

educating sellers your role as an expert
Educating Sellers – Your Role as an Expert

24% of homes were on the market for 17 or more weeks

Weeks home was on the market

Source: 2007 NAR Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers

what does it all mean
What Does it All Mean
  • Big changes in the real estate market
    • Sluggish activity in many (but not all) regions
    • Foreclosures will hold back market in some areas
    • Pent-up demand will lift many markets in the next year or so
  • In a tough market, buyers and sellers need your expertise
  • Real estate remains one of the best investments for most households
slide34
For more information:

Paul C. Bishop

NAR Research Division

202-383-1246

[email protected]

www.realtor.org/research

ad