GEOPOLITICS AND THE FLAT WORLD
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GEOPOLITICS AND THE FLAT WORLD. Technological Determinism. Technology can facilitate globalization Internet Cell phones with cameras Capabilities create intention Technology CAN help flatten the world, but it is not a must Everyone in the world use technology ?. Technological Determinism.

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Technological determinism l.jpg
Technological Determinism

  • Technology can facilitate globalization

    • Internet

    • Cell phones with cameras

  • Capabilities create intention

  • Technology CAN help flatten the world, but it is not a must

    • Everyone in the world use technology ?


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Technological Determinism

  • Benefits of using technology

    • Able to communicate, compete, and collaborate farther and faster

  • More and more people will find more and more ways to use them

  • BUT no guarantee all people use it to create and grow their living standard

  • So no idea how flat the world will be


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Flattening Process

  • World has been continuously flattening in a fast rate

  • Half of the world participates and benefits from the flattening process

    • In both direct and indirect aspects

  • Believed to be the most important trend nowadays


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Flattening Process

  • Lots of people are left behind in the flattening process like

    • War

    • Economic disruption

    • Politics

  • Problems and forces that prohibit the process?

  • How to overcome?


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Middle Class

  • Jerry Yang quoted a saying

    • Where people have hope, you have a middle class

  • Middle class believes

    • A pathway out of poverty or lower-income status

    • Looking for a higher standard of living and a better future for their kids

  • No hope, no chance to make into middle class

  • NO HOPE TO ENTER FLAT WORLD


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Why no hope?

  • Two reasons for no hope

    • Too sick

    • Local governments are too broken


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Too Sick

  • Case 1: In an Indian village

  • Everyday this group of people are suffered from

    • Diseases, such as AIDS or TB

    • Instable electrical and water supply

  • Bribe is the only way to have better life

    • BUT no money to do so

  • Fulfill their destiny, and live in this way

  • Rural areas have no chance to develop, e.g. India, China, Africa and Latin America


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Local Governments are broken

  • Bribe to get electricity, water

  • Bribe the tax assessor to assess your home correctly

  • Poor people feel gloom and darkness

  • Do not trust the governments that can provide them a pathway


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Too Disempowered

  • Half-flat – occasionally benefit from the flat world but who are not really living inside it themselves

  • Hope that globalization process become slower


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Improvement of Flattening

  • Not by IMF, but local government

  • Proper actions

    • Invest in rural infrastructure

    • Invest in education

    • Root out mismanagement and corruption


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Anti-globalization Movement

  • Originally it aims to help the poor people

  • Lost touch of with the true aspirations of the world’s poor

  • Five disparate forces

    • Upper-middle-class American

      • For wealth and power

    • Old Left-socialists

      • Claims to promote socialism to help poor, but actual purpose is not

    • More amorphous group

      • Foreseeing the trend of flattening world, so it gives support to anti-globalization

    • Anti-Americanism

      • It’s the main purpose, but not helping the poors

    • Environmentalists


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Who alleviates poverty?

  • NGO

    • NGOs in India right for better local governance

    • Use of internet and other modern tools of the flat world

    • Aims to put a spotlight on corruption, mismanagement, and tax avoidance


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Who alleviates poverty?

  • Multinational corporations

    • Hewlett-Packard (HP)

    • Rent some hi-tech equipment, like photo studio, to Indian women

    • Provide training for them

    • Raise the women’s confidence and income

    • Living standard increases a lot


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Factors for unflattening of world:

Too frustrated


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Consequences of the flat world:

  • Greater direct contact in societies and cultures

    —sharpened their frustration

  • The most dangerous unflattening forces

    • suicide bombers of al-Qaeda

    • other Islamist terror organizations


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Why attack ?

  • Dilemma

  • abandon the cherished religion

  • remain forever in the rear of human technical advance

    Faced with dilemma, people grow angry

  • They lash out


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Why attack ?

2. Humiliation

  • Poverty of Dignity, not poverty of money

  • World get flatter, people see miles and miles

    • e.g. humiliation dished up to people fiber-optically


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Unflattening the world

No trust

  • No flat world

  • Because trust allows us to remove barriers and eliminate friction

  • E.g. Supply chains


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Unflattening the world

Cannot escape from unflat world

  • Treat Qu’ran as a divinely inspired text

  • not open to any literary criticism or creative reinterpretation

  • Culture not encourage creative thinking and critical thought


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Unflattening the world

  • e.g. Between 1980- 1999,

    171 international patents in Arab countries.

    South Korea alone registered 16,328 patents.

  • As a result,

    --Without open environment to attract international investment and stimulate local innovation.


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Another factor:Too many Toyota(Natural resource constraint)


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Wars Over Energy

If India, China, Latin America and the former Soviet Empire enter the flat world,

  • demand for cars, microwave, refrigerator……..

  • serious shortage of energy

  • unflattening effect on the world


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China—Beijing

  • e.g. in Beijing, one thousand new cars added to roads a day

    From World Bank,

  • 16 out of 20 most polluted cities in the world are in China

  • Pollution and environmental degradation together cost China $170 billion a year

  • China surged ahead of Japan as the 2nd largest importer of oil in the world.


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Oil Crisis

  • Could the world afford to have 1.3 billion people driving the same cars and using the same amount of energy?--another oil crisis?

  • In 1970, coincided with Japan and Europe rising, oil crisis appeared

  • Solved—Because we got smarter and equipment became efficient


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Oil Crisis

  • But now, China, India and Russia come in the same period?

  • The demand is multiplied by a factor of ten!

  • Can it be solved again?

  • Therefore, they have to hold back and consume less for the greater global good


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Unflattening effect

1. Gasoline prices will continue to trend higher

2. Very worst political systems in the world-like Sudan, Iran and Saudi Arabia become worse

3. Environment will be damaged more and more.

  • Species and ecosystems can’t adapt that fast - currently threatened species will be condemned to extinction and health damaged


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Dell Notebook – Manufacturing Process

  • Order

    • Sales representative

    • Dell’s order management system

  • Parts manufacturing

    • Supplier logistics centers

  • Assembly & boxing

    • Dell’s factory

  • Shipping

    • UPS


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Multiple Suppliers

  • Intel microprocessor

  • - Philippines, Costa Rica, Malaysia

  • memory

  • - Korea, Taiwan, Germany

  • graphics card

  • - China

  • cooling fan

  • - Taiwan

  • motherboard

  • - Shanghai, Taiwan

  • Keyboard

  • - Tianjin, Shenzen

  • LCD display

  • - South Korea, Japan

  • wireless card

  • – China, Malaysia

  • modem

  • - China

  • battery

  • - Malaysia, Mexico, China

  • hard disk

  • - Singapore, Thailand, Philippines

  • CD/DVD drive

  • -Indonesia, Philippines

  • notebook carrying bag

  • - China

  • power adapter

  • - Thailand, China

  • power cord

  • - China, Malaysia, and India

  • removable memory

  • – Israel, Malaysia


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Demand Shaping

  • supply chain runs short at time t

  • signal is relayed to marketing department

  • provide promotion/upgrade

  • Using such promotions, Dell can reshape the demand for any part of any notebook or desktop to correspond with the projected supply in its global supply chain


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Geopolitics and the Flat World

  • Interplay between the traditional global threats and the newly emergent global supply chains


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McDonald's theory

  • Middle class

  • Network of McDonald's

  • McDonald's country

  • People in McDonald's countries didn't like to fight wars anymore. They preferred to wait in line for burgers.

  • Rationale: countries tied their economies and futures to global integration and trade, it would act as a restraint on going to war with their neighbors


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Dell’s Theory

  • No two countries that are both part of a major global supply chain, like Dell's, will ever fight a war against each other as long as they are both part of the same global supply chain.

  • Don't: fight wars

  • Do: make deliveries of goods and services, and enjoy the rising standards of living


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China and Japan

  • China: develop level of credibility

  • Japanese company: move low and middle range technical work and manufacturing to China

  • Strong Japan and strong China

  • Win-win


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China and Taiwan

  • Taiwan: third-largest information technology hardware producer, Silicon Shield

  • China: hundreds of big American technology companies running R & D operations

  • Majority of Taiwanese voted against independence


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India and Pakistan

  • Dell Theory is working on only one party - India

  • India: world's knowledge and service supply chain, back offices

    • American Express, General Electric, British Airways, Wipro

    • stable, predictable operating environment

  • International Firms: difficult to switch

  • Better future, no territory


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Dell’s Theory

  • Governments whose countries are enmeshed in global supply chains will have to think three times, not just twice, about engaging in anything but a war of self-defense


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Disadvantage of Flat World

  • Natural resource constraint

  • Pandemic disease

  • Terrorist attack


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Pandemic disease

  • SARS in China

    • Spread to 5 countries within 24 hours

    • Further to 30 countries on 6 continents in several months

    • Cause billions dollars in economic loss

  • Reasons:

    • speed and intensity of air travel

    • Intense connectivity of people and goods


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Pandemic disease

  • Fast transmission of disease

  • Inefficient mechanism to fight against

    • Set up barriers to stop interaction between countries

    • Delivery of life-saving vaccine and medical supplies are difficult

    • Not enough storage of inventories of medical supplies


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Terrorist attack

  • Al-Qaeda used internet to organize terrorism

  • Cyber-terrorism

    • Small to act big

    • Fundraising

    • Recruiting members

    • Obtain flat world data


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