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A Voyage of Discovery Using Statistics:. An Assessment of NJ Mercury Air Pollution Levels. Preliminary Analysis by: Fawn Hornsby 1 , Charles Rogers 2 , & Sarah Thornton 3 1,3 North Carolina State University 2 University of Texas at El Paso. Team VIGRE. Client: Mr. Charles Pietarinen

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Client mr charles pietarinen nj department of environment l.jpg

A Voyage of Discovery Using Statistics:

An Assessment of NJ Mercury Air Pollution Levels

Preliminary Analysis by:

Fawn Hornsby1, Charles Rogers2, & Sarah Thornton3

1,3North Carolina State University

2University of Texas at El Paso

Team VIGRE

Client: Mr. Charles Pietarinen

NJ Department of Environment

Faculty Mentor:

Dr. William Hunt

Graduate Assistant:

Mr. Andrew Moore

Tuesday, July 25, 2006 @ North Carolina State University


Overview l.jpg

Overview

  • Background

  • NJDEP Project

  • Dealing with Instrument Peculiarities

  • Previous Analysis

  • Objectives

  • Data Sources

  • Assessment I (Overall)

  • Assessment II (Transport)


Background l.jpg

Background


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NJDEP Mercury Project

  • The NJDEP established mercury air monitoring sites in Elizabeth and New Brunswick, NJ to better understand this problem

  • Complex and extensive mercury data sets were collected using the Tekran Continuous Mercury Analyzer

    • Elemental, particulate, and reactive gas mercury were measured at each city during 2004 and 2005.


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Dealing with Instrument Peculiarities

  • Because of a peculiarity in the way the instrument operates, the mercury levels were measured beginning at random start times after midnight, so that no two measurements were collected during the same time period

  • Each measurement was assigned to one of 24 hourly time blocks based on the midpoint of the observed hour

  • For correlation analysis, observations in New Brunswick and Elizabeth were matched by date and were examined for one to up to 24 hours out of phase.


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Previous Analysis

  • Found Diurnal Patterns and compared with them with other forms of air pollutants.

  • Checked for yearly patterns

  • Utilized meteorological variables to find locations of possible sources.

  • Checked for regional effects between New Brunswick and Elizabeth.


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~Finding Diurnal Patterns~ Hourly Patterns Throughout the Day

Elemental Mercury Box Plot Without outliers:

Particulate Box Plot Without outliers:

Reactive Gas Mercury Box Plot Without outliers:


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Daily Averages of Elemental Mercury at New Brunswick versus Elizabeth

ELEMENTAL MERCURY

WITH Outliers:

Correlation: r = 0.1769

R-Squared Value: r^2 = 0.0313

WITHOUT Outliers:

Correlation: r = 0.174

R-Squared Value: r^2 = 0.0306

PARTICULATE MERCURY

WITH Outliers:

Correlation: r = 0.571

R-Squared Value: r^2 = 0.3262

WITHOUT FARTHEST Outlier:

Correlation: r = 0.6912

R-Squared Value: r^2 = 0.4778

REACTIVE GAS MERCURY

WITH Outliers:

Correlation: r =0.514

R-Squared Value: r^2 = 0.2719

Daily Max Hour:

Correlation: r = 0.37661

R-Squared Value: r^2 = 0.1418


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Source Graphs For Elizabeth

  • Particulate Mercury:

  • Highest concentrations from 180-230 and 240-270 degrees

  • Elemental Mercury:

  • Highest concentrations from 140-170, and 190-220 degrees

  • Reactive Gas Mercury:

  • Highest concentrations coming from the directions of: 0-20, 120-160, and 220-280 degrees


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Source Graphs For New Brunswick

  • Particulate Mercury:

  • Highest concentrations from 70-100 and 240-290 degrees

  • Elemental Mercury:

  • Highest concentrations from 40-90 degrees

  • Reactive Gas Mercury:

  • Highest concentrations coming from the directions of: 60-100, and 200-240 degrees


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Objectives

Analysis I:

  • Re-examine diurnal patterns for the year as well as all seasons.

  • Examine the day of the week effect

  • Explore the relationship between the three phases of mercury, and ozone, temperature, fine particulate matter, and precipitation with emphasis on seasonal variations.

    Analysis II:

  • Analyze the mercury data in order to determine if pollution transport effects mercury levels in New Brunswick and Elizabeth

    • Focus on mercury pollution transport to answer a number of questions such as:

      • Is mercury air pollution regional in nature?

      • Do sources affect air monitoring sites in both Elizabeth and New Brunswick simultaneously or are they out of phase by an hour or more?


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Data Sources

  • Wind speed & direction, temperature, and precipitation were examined along with ozone and fine particulate matter (from USEPA).

    • Ozone data are measured at two locations: Rutgers University as well as Bayonne, New Jersey

    • Temperature data was measured at NWS Cooperative Observing Station in New Brunswick and also measured at the Newark Airport in Newark, New Jersey.


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Analysis I

Another Look at Diurnal Patterns

  • All Diurnal Patterns use a 50% completeness criteria.

  • High values above 2 standard deviations were removed in order to better see the distributions regarding the seasonal diurnal patterns.

  • The Winter months consisted of December, January, & February for 2004 and 2005.

  • The Summer months consisted of June, July, & August for 2004 and 2005.


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Another Look At Diurnal Patterns: Elemental Mercury

Summer Ozone Season Elizabeth, 2005

Yearly Diurnal Patterns in Elizabeth:

Yearly Diurnal Patterns in New Brunswick:


Another look at diurnal patterns particulate mercury l.jpg

Another Look At Diurnal Patterns: Particulate Mercury

Summer Ozone Season Elizabeth, 2004

Yearly Diurnal Patterns in Elizabeth:

Yearly Diurnal Patterns in New Brunswick:


Another look at diurnal patterns reactive gas mercury l.jpg

Another Look At Diurnal Patterns: Reactive Gas Mercury

Summer Ozone Season Elizabeth, 2004

Yearly Diurnal Patterns in Elizabeth:

Yearly Diurnal Patterns in New Brunswick:


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Elemental Mercury Values During the Winter Seasons

New Brunswick:

Elizabeth:


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Elemental Mercury Values During the Summer Seasons

New Brunswick:

Elizabeth:


Particulate mercury values during the winter seasons l.jpg

Particulate Mercury Values During the Winter Seasons

New Brunswick:

Elizabeth:


Particulate mercury values during the summer seasons l.jpg

Particulate Mercury Values During the Summer Seasons

New Brunswick:

Elizabeth:


Reactive gas mercury values during the winter seasons l.jpg

Reactive Gas Mercury Values During the Winter Seasons

New Brunswick:

Elizabeth:


Reactive gas mercury values during the summer seasons l.jpg

Reactive Gas Mercury Values During the Summer Seasons

New Brunswick:

Elizabeth:


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Elemental Hg Day of the Week Effect


Particulate hg day of the week effect l.jpg

Particulate Hg Day of the Week Effect


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Reactive Gas Hg Day of the Week Effect


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2 Seasons Per Year

Winter Months:

October ~ March

2. Summer Months:

April ~ September

4 Seasons Per Year

1.Spring:

March ~ May

2.Summer:

June ~ August

3.Fall:

September ~ November

4.Winter:

December ~ February

Seasonal Variations

In order to better see the seasonal patterns of ozone and temperature as it relates to each mercury phase, we divided the year into four seasons and two seasons.


Examining temperatures versus elemental mercury in new brunswick l.jpg

Examining Temperatures versus Elemental Mercury in New Brunswick

Scatter Plot:

Box Plot:


Seasonal variations of elemental mercury in new brunswick l.jpg

Seasonal Variations of Elemental Mercury in New Brunswick


Ozone versus elemental mercury l.jpg

Ozone versus Elemental Mercury

Elizabeth:

New Brunswick:


Relationship between elemental mercury ozone temperature l.jpg

Relationship Between Elemental Mercury, Ozone, & Temperature

Elizabeth:

New Brunswick:


Examining temperatures versus particulate mercury in elizabeth l.jpg

Examining Temperatures versus Particulate Mercury in Elizabeth

Scatter Plot:

Box Plot:


Seasonal variations of particulate mercury in elizabeth l.jpg

Seasonal Variations of Particulate Mercury in Elizabeth


Examining temperatures versus particulate mercury in new brunswick l.jpg

Examining Temperatures versus Particulate Mercury in New Brunswick

Scatter Plot:

Box Plot:


Seasonal variations of particulate mercury in new brunswick l.jpg

Seasonal Variations of Particulate Mercury inNew Brunswick


Ozone versus particulate mercury l.jpg

Ozone versus Particulate Mercury

Elizabeth:

New Brunswick:


Relationship between particulate mercury ozone temperature l.jpg

Relationship Between Particulate Mercury, Ozone, & Temperature

Elizabeth:

New Brunswick:


Examining temperatures versus reactive gas mercury in elizabeth l.jpg

Examining Temperatures versus Reactive Gas Mercury in Elizabeth

Box Plot:

Scatter Plot:


Seasonal variations of reactive gas mercury in elizabeth l.jpg

Seasonal Variations of Reactive Gas Mercury in Elizabeth


Examining temperatures versus reactive gas mercury in new brunswick l.jpg

Examining Temperatures versus Reactive Gas Mercury in New Brunswick

Box Plot:

Scatter Plot:


Seasonal variations of reactive gas mercury in new brunswick l.jpg

Seasonal Variations of Reactive Gas Mercury in New Brunswick


Ozone versus reactive gas mercury l.jpg

Ozone versus Reactive Gas Mercury

New Brunswick:

Elizabeth:


Relationship between reactive gas mercury ozone temperature l.jpg

Relationship Between Reactive Gas Mercury, Ozone, & Temperature

Elizabeth:

New Brunswick:


Mercury versus precipitation l.jpg

Mercury versus Precipitation

~Elizabeth~

~New Brunswick~

~Elemental~

~Particulate~


Mercury versus precipitation44 l.jpg

Mercury versus Precipitation

~New Brunswick~

~Elizabeth~

~Reactive Gas~


Continuous pm fine measurements versus the particulate mercury daily averages in new brunswick l.jpg

Continuous PM fine Measurements versus the Particulate Mercury Daily Averages in New Brunswick

Particulate Mercury Daily Average

Particulate Mercury Daily Average

Particulate Mercury Daily Average


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Continuous PM fine Measurements versus the Particulate Mercury Daily Averages BY SEASON in New Brunswick

Winter: October ~ March

R-squared = 0.3408

R-value = 0.5838

Particulate Mercury Daily Average

Summer: April ~ September

R-squared = 0.0305

R-value = 0.1746

Particulate Mercury Daily Average


Continuous pm fine measurements versus the particulate mercury daily averages in elizabeth l.jpg

Continuous PM fine Measurements versus the Particulate Mercury Daily Averages in Elizabeth

Particulate Mercury Daily Average

Particulate Mercury Daily Average


Conclusions l.jpg

Conclusions

  • For both cities, Elemental and RGM have higher concentrations in the Spring and Summer months while Particulate Mercury has the highest concentrations in the Winter and the lowest concentrations in the warmer months.

  • Temperature is positively correlated with Elemental and Reactive Gas Mercury while negatively correlated with Particulate.

  • Precipitation is negatively correlated with all three phases of Mercury.

  • Describe the relationship between the 3 phases of hg and particulate matter and ozone


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Recommendations

  • When comparing data collected with the Tekran Continuous Analyzer, we recommend assigning each measurement to one of 24 hourly time blocks based on the midpoint of the observed hour

  • Co-locate mercury instruments with fine particulate, ozone, and meteorological variables in order to better understand the physical processes.


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New Jersey’s Pervasive Ghost:

An Assessment of Lethal Ambient Air Mercury Transport

Preliminary Analysis by:

Charles Rogers1, Fawn Hornsby2, & Sarah Thornton3

1University of Texas at El Paso

2,3North Carolina State University

Team VIGRE

Client: Mr. Charles Pietarinen

NJ Department of Environment

Faculty Mentor:

Dr. William Hunt

Graduate Assistant:

Mr. Andrew Moore

Tuesday, July 25, 2006 @ North Carolina State University


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Analysis II

Statistical Methods

  • Correlation & Regression Analysis

  • Mercury Species by Wind Direction

    • Correlation between sites

    • Means by direction

  • Mercury species by time difference

    • Are the sites out of phase by a hr/more?


County emissions of mercury and mercury compounds 2004 l.jpg

County Emissions of Mercury and Mercury Compounds 2004

0-118-4851-5874-172

Total On-Site Disposal (pounds)


Site emissions of mercury and mercury compounds 2004 l.jpg

Site Emissions of Mercury and Mercury Compounds 2004

270°

90°

270°

90°

180°

180°


Mercury species by wind direction l.jpg

Mercury Species by Wind Direction

  • Correlation between sites by wind direction

    • Specifically, the meteorological data from the New Brunswick site

  • Means by wind direction for each site

    • Using meteorological data from New Brunswick and Elizabeth


Primary wind directions in new brunswick l.jpg

Primary Wind Directions in New Brunswick

270°

90°

180°


Elemental mercury correlation by wind direction l.jpg

Elemental Mercury Correlation By Wind Direction

New Brunswick (wind direction)

East-Southeast

90-120°

Direction using 30 degree increments


Particulate mercury correlation by wind direction l.jpg

Particulate Mercury Correlation By Wind Direction

New Brunswick (wind direction)

East-Southeast

90-120°

Direction using 30 degree increments


Reactive gas mercury correlation by wind direction l.jpg

Reactive Gas Mercury Correlation By Wind Direction

New Brunswick (wind direction)

South

East-Southeast

90-120°

150-180°

Direction using 30 degree increments


Comparison of correlations by direction l.jpg

Comparison of Correlations By Direction

Using 30 degree increments

Elemental Mercury

Particulate Mercury

Reactive Gas Mercury

East-Southeast

90-120°

New Brunswick (wind direction)


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Northeast

60-90°


Slide61 l.jpg

Northeast

60-90°


Slide62 l.jpg

West-Northwest

Northeast

60-90°

210-240°


Primary wind directions in elizabeth l.jpg

Primary Wind Directions in Elizabeth

270°

90°

180°


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South-Southwest

180-210°


Slide65 l.jpg

South

150-180°


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South

North

150-180°

0-30°


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Transport by Time Difference

Do sources affect air monitoring sites in both Elizabeth and New Brunswick simultaneously or are they out of phase by an hour or more?


Particulate mercury correlation by time difference l.jpg

Particulate Mercury Correlation by Time Difference

Hourly Time Difference


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Particulate Mercury Correlation by Time Difference

Wind Direction: 30-60 Degrees

N = 49

Hourly Time Difference


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Particulate Mercury Correlation by Time Difference

Wind Direction: 210-240 Degrees

N = 75

N = 24

Hourly Time Difference


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Particulate Mercury Correlation by Time Difference

Wind Direction: 240-270 Degrees

N = 85

N = 62

N = 88

Hourly Time Difference


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Particulate MercuryCorrelation by Time Difference

Wind Direction: 270-300 Degrees

N = 54

Hourly Time Difference


Particulate mercury correlation by time difference75 l.jpg

Particulate MercuryCorrelation by Time Difference

Wind Direction: 300-330 Degrees

N = 35

Hourly Time Difference


Reactive gas mercury correlation by time difference l.jpg

Reactive Gas Mercury Correlation by Time Difference

Hourly Time Difference


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Conclusions

  • Transport appears to be a factor in all mercury levels

  • Mercury data in New Brunswick and Elizabeth appear to be effected by the same source(s).

  • Particulate Hg is most likely to show possible transport or similarly be impacted by the same source

  • Strong relationship between Hg concentrations for some wind directions

  • When comparing Elizabeth and New Brunswick sites, it appears that sources are effecting both sites simultaneously or one hour out of phase

    • More likely to be a factor for particulate mercury, followed by reactive gas and then elemental

  • For New Brunswick, identified signal from the west for both particulate and reactive gas mercury, but there does not appear to be an associated source in the Toxic Release Inventory


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Recommendations

  • Further work needs to be done to better understand pollution transport

  • A closer look at upper meteorological data might provide greater insight into understanding mercury pollution transport


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THANK YOU!

Charles R. Rogers

crrogers2@utep.edu

University of Texas at El Paso

Fawn E. Hornsby

fehornsb@ncsu.edu

North Carolina State University

Sarah A. Thornton

sathornt@ncsu.edu

North Carolina State University


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Supplementary Slides


Continuous pm fine measurements and particulate mercury daily averages by date in new brunswick l.jpg

Continuous PM fine Measurements and Particulate Mercury Daily Averages By Date in New Brunswick

Date

Particulate Average

Continuous PM


Continuous pm fine measurements and particulate mercury daily averages by date in elizabeth l.jpg

Continuous PM fine Measurements and Particulate Mercury Daily Averages By Date in Elizabeth

Date

Continuous PM

Particulate Average


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Hour Correlations Between Sites

1 - Hour Correlations

2 - Hour Correlations

30 - 60 Degrees

3 - Hour Correlations

4 - Hour Correlations

8 - Hour Correlations

15 - Hour Correlations


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Hour Correlations Between Sites

1 - Hour Correlations

2 - Hour Correlations

210 - 240 Degrees

3 - Hour Correlations

4 - Hour Correlations

8 - Hour Correlations

15 - Hour Correlations


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Hour Correlations Between Sites

1 - Hour Correlations

2 - Hour Correlations

240 - 270 Degrees

3 - Hour Correlations

4 - Hour Correlations

8 - Hour Correlations

15 - Hour Correlations


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Hour Correlations Between Sites

1 - Hour Correlations

2 - Hour Correlations

300 - 330 Degrees

3 - Hour Correlations

4 - Hour Correlations

15 - Hour Correlations

8 - Hour Correlations


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