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Outlook for U.S. Travel Suzanne D. Cook, Ph.D. Senior Vice President of Research U.S. Travel Association

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Outlook for U.S. Travel Suzanne D. Cook, Ph.D. Senior Vice President of Research U.S. Travel Association. Background. We’re in a recession that just won’t quit Sharp deterioration in labor market - 5.7 million jobs lost since start of recession in December ‘07

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Outlook for U.S. Travel

Suzanne D. Cook, Ph.D.

Senior Vice President of Research

U.S. Travel Association

background
Background
  • We’re in a recession that just won’t quit
  • Sharp deterioration in labor market - 5.7 million jobs lost since start of recession in December ‘07
  • Unemployment rate now at 8.9 percent; forecasted to peak at 10.2 percent in Q1 2010
  • Household and corporate retrenchment
  • Economy will remain weak; recovery expected to begin in late 2009
consumer confidence posts gains but still near record low
Consumer Confidence posts gains but still near record low

54.9

1985 = 100

Source: The Conference Board

leisure travel trends
Leisure Travel Trends
  • In decline since Q3 ‘08
  • Travel still viewed as a “right”
  • Shorter, closer-to-home trips
  • Quest for values and deals
  • Trading down, not out
business travel the weakest link
Business Travel – The Weakest Link
  • $244 billion in expenditures
  • 2.4 million jobs
  • $39 billion in federal, state and local tax revenues
business travel trends
Business Travel Trends
  • 93% of companies implementing cost-cutting measures
  • 87% of companies plan to spend less on business travel this year - focusing more on revenue generating travel rather than education or incentives
  • 51% of business travel decision-makers report declines in business travel
domestic and international enplanements percent change q1 09 q1 08
Domestic and International Enplanements (Percent change Q1 ‘09/Q1 ‘08)

Domestic

International

Total

Source: Air Transport Association

lodging industry forecast
Lodging Industry Forecast

2000 Smith Travel Research, Inc.

leisure travel intentions increase over same point last year
Leisure travel intentions* increase over same point last year

* Percent of U.S. adults intending to take leisure trip in next six months

Source: U.S. Travel Association/YPartnership travelhorizons™

traveler sentiment index tm tsi improving
Traveler Sentiment IndexTM (TSI) Improving

100

93.0

90.2

  • Interest
  • Time Available
  • Money Available
  • Affordability
  • Service Quality
  • Safety of Travel

89.1

78.2

March 2007 = 100

Source: U.S. Travel Association/YPartnership Travelhorizons™

traveler sentiment affordability index on the rise perceived affordability of travel rises
Traveler Sentiment Affordability Index on the RisePerceived affordability of travel rises…

March 2007 = 100

Source: U.S. Travel/YPartnership Travelhorizons™

reflects reality of smaller increases or declines in travel related costs
Reflects reality of smaller increases or declines in travel-related costs

(Percent change YTD through March 2009/2008)

Food away

from home

Recreation

Airfares

Lodging

Motor

Fuel

Source: U.S. Travel Association – Travel Price Index

gas prices down from 4 00 but are beginning to rise
Gas prices down from $4.00+, but are beginning to rise

Source: AAA Daily Fuel Gauge Report

www.aaa.org

money available for travel index on par with april 2008
Money Available for Travel Index on Par with April 2008

86.8

March 2007 = 100

Source: U.S. Travel/YPartnership Travelhorizons™

summer domestic leisure travel 2001 2009f
Summer Domestic Leisure Travel2001 – 2009F

Millions of person-trips

Source: U.S. Travel Association

trend in international visitors to u s 2005 2010 forecast
Trend in International Visitors to U.S. (2005-2010 forecast)

Arrivals in Millions

Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce, ITA, Office of Travel & Tourism Industries;

Secretaria de Turismo (Mexico); Statistics Canada & Tourism Economics

summary 2009 visitation forecast
Summary – 2009 Visitation Forecast

Domestic

Leisure

Domestic

Business

International

-2.5%

-5.8%

- 8.9% (International)

-6.9% (Overseas)

Source: U.S. Travel Association’ and Tourism Economics

summary 2009 spending forecast
Summary – 2009 Spending Forecast

Total

Domestic

International

-8.1%

-8.8%

-12.9%

save the date
Save the Date

October 26-28, 2009 - Little Rock, Arkansas

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