Outlook for U.S. Travel
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Outlook for U.S. Travel Suzanne D. Cook, Ph.D. Senior Vice President of Research U.S. Travel Association. Background. We’re in a recession that just won’t quit Sharp deterioration in labor market - 5.7 million jobs lost since start of recession in December ‘07

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Outlook for U.S. Travel

Suzanne D. Cook, Ph.D.

Senior Vice President of Research

U.S. Travel Association


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Background

  • We’re in a recession that just won’t quit

  • Sharp deterioration in labor market - 5.7 million jobs lost since start of recession in December ‘07

  • Unemployment rate now at 8.9 percent; forecasted to peak at 10.2 percent in Q1 2010

  • Household and corporate retrenchment

  • Economy will remain weak; recovery expected to begin in late 2009



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Consumer Confidence posts gains but still near record low

54.9

1985 = 100

Source: The Conference Board


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Leisure Travel Trends

  • In decline since Q3 ‘08

  • Travel still viewed as a “right”

  • Shorter, closer-to-home trips

  • Quest for values and deals

  • Trading down, not out


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Business Travel – The Weakest Link

  • $244 billion in expenditures

  • 2.4 million jobs

  • $39 billion in federal, state and local tax revenues



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Business Travel Trends

  • 93% of companies implementing cost-cutting measures

  • 87% of companies plan to spend less on business travel this year - focusing more on revenue generating travel rather than education or incentives

  • 51% of business travel decision-makers report declines in business travel



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Domestic and International Enplanements (Percent change Q1 ‘09/Q1 ‘08)

Domestic

International

Total

Source: Air Transport Association






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Lodging Industry Forecast

2000 Smith Travel Research, Inc.




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Leisure travel intentions* increase over same point last year

* Percent of U.S. adults intending to take leisure trip in next six months

Source: U.S. Travel Association/YPartnership travelhorizons™


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Traveler Sentiment Index year TM (TSI) Improving

100

93.0

90.2

  • Interest

  • Time Available

  • Money Available

  • Affordability

  • Service Quality

  • Safety of Travel

89.1

78.2

March 2007 = 100

Source: U.S. Travel Association/YPartnership Travelhorizons™


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Traveler Sentiment Affordability Index year on the RisePerceived affordability of travel rises…

March 2007 = 100

Source: U.S. Travel/YPartnership Travelhorizons™


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Reflects reality of smaller increases or declines in travel-related costs

(Percent change YTD through March 2009/2008)

Food away

from home

Recreation

Airfares

Lodging

Motor

Fuel

Source: U.S. Travel Association – Travel Price Index


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Gas prices down from $4.00+, but are beginning to rise travel-related costs

Source: AAA Daily Fuel Gauge Report

www.aaa.org


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Money Available for Travel Index on Par with April 2008 travel-related costs

86.8

March 2007 = 100

Source: U.S. Travel/YPartnership Travelhorizons™


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Summer Domestic Leisure Travel travel-related costs2001 – 2009F

Millions of person-trips

Source: U.S. Travel Association


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Trend in International Visitors to U.S. travel-related costs(2005-2010 forecast)

Arrivals in Millions

Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce, ITA, Office of Travel & Tourism Industries;

Secretaria de Turismo (Mexico); Statistics Canada & Tourism Economics


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Summary – 2009 Visitation Forecast travel-related costs

Domestic

Leisure

Domestic

Business

International

-2.5%

-5.8%

- 8.9% (International)

-6.9% (Overseas)

Source: U.S. Travel Association’ and Tourism Economics


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Summary – 2009 Spending Forecast travel-related costs

Total

Domestic

International

-8.1%

-8.8%

-12.9%


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Outlook for U.S. Attractions travel-related costs

?


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Sign up now! travel-related costs


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Save the Date travel-related costs

October 26-28, 2009 - Little Rock, Arkansas


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www.ustravel.org travel-related costs

[email protected]


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