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2015/16 Crop Market Outlook

2015/16 Crop Market Outlook. AgriGold New Customer Banquet Cedar Rapids, Iowa Aug. 11, 2015 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911. U.S. Corn Supply and Use. Source: USDA-WAOB. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use. Source: USDA-WAOB.

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2015/16 Crop Market Outlook

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  1. 2015/16 Crop Market Outlook AgriGold New Customer Banquet Cedar Rapids, Iowa Aug. 11, 2015 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

  2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB

  3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB

  4. U.S. Soybean Acreage Top: 2015 acreage Bottom: Change from last year Units: 1,000 acres Source: USDA-NASS

  5. Corn Good to Excellent Ratings Nationwide, 70% of the corn crop is rated Good to Excellent Last year, 73% Source: USDA-NASS, Aug. 9, 2015

  6. Soy Good to Excellent Ratings Nationwide, 63% of the soy crop is rated Good to Excellent Last year 70% Source: USDA-NASS, Aug. 9, 2015

  7. Early Corn Yield Estimate

  8. Early Soy Yield Estimate

  9. World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB

  10. World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB

  11. Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: ISU Extension

  12. Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: ISU Extension

  13. U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB

  14. Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

  15. Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

  16. Corn Advance Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

  17. Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

  18. Soybean Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

  19. Soybean Advance Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

  20. Crude Oil Prices Sources: EIA and CME

  21. Strength of the U.S. Dollar Source: Federal Reserve

  22. Corn Grind for Ethanol

  23. Ethanol Exports Source: EIA

  24. Current Corn Futures 3.91 3.80 Source: CME Group, 8/10/2015

  25. Current Soybean Futures 9.45 8.99 Source: CME Group, 8/10/2015

  26. 2014/15 Crop Margins

  27. 2015/16 Crop Margins

  28. Thoughts for 2015 and Beyond • Supply/demand concerns • Quarterly stocks report showed strong demand • Resurvey of acreage for Kansas, Missouri, and Arkansas • Market is debating whether this year’s rain makes grain • Negative margins for 2014 and 2015 crops

  29. Thank you for your time!Any questions?My web site:http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/hart/Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/

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