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Residential Market Analysis

Residential Market Analysis. Marcus Dixon Associate Director Savills Residential Research Dec 2009. Back on Track?. Nationwide up 7.6% since February Transactions up from 41,000 in February to 82,000 in September Prime central London up 8.4% since Q1 09 Prime SW London up 15.3% since Q1 09

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Residential Market Analysis

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  1. Residential Market Analysis Marcus DixonAssociate Director Savills Residential ResearchDec 2009

  2. Back on Track? • Nationwide up 7.6% since February • Transactions up from 41,000 in February to 82,000 in September • Prime central London up 8.4% since Q1 09 • Prime SW London up 15.3% since Q1 09 • Prime London suburbs up 7.87% since peak

  3. Affordability remains high….in theory!

  4. the market has divided into the equity haves and the equity have-nots …

  5. LTVsaffect deposit affordability

  6. The adopted mainstream UK forecast Av Price Change Source: Savills (forecast of Nationwide quarterly index)

  7. Regionally Equity rich areas to lead the recovery

  8. Land & Development

  9. long term, housing remains a rare commodity

  10. activity has bounced back (in some markets)

  11. and so we are seeing land markets level trading on smaller less risky sites in higher value markets

  12. … but many large sites will remainunder water Source: Savills Research

  13. BUT….Small sites cannot meet targetsneed to bring forward large sites too

  14. the value uplifts from a new land development model should be compelling Long-term placemaking & land stewardship 974% Long-term placemaking & plot sales 713% Medium-term land development play 454%

  15. but this would mean moving away from the linear model of development … Land ownership Design, planning Construction, marketing Property Ownership (Investor and occupier) Finance

  16. to one that deals with the barriers that are many and complex

  17. new, long-term models are needed A new vehicle & mechanisms for participation in value uplift are needed

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