ISIS/IRAQ/SYRIA

1. ISIS/IRAQ/SYRIA Itaru SERA Ryunosuke YAMANAKA Chang CHENG

2. Historical Background of Iraq Nouri al-Maliki Prime Minister (2006~2014) Shiite

4. Basic Background of Syria • The Syrian Civil War is an ongoing armed conflict taking place is Syria. • It began in the early spring of 2011 within the context of Arab Spring. • Important Numbers: • Over 2 million refugee • Death of 110,000 people • 6.5 million Syrians displaced • 3 millions civilians fled the countries such as Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey, Egypt, and Iraq.

5. Syrian Civil war has a lot of actors Pro Asad Forces Anti-Asad Forces Syrian Opposition Coalition Free Syrian Army Jabhat al Nusra Islamic Front Supreme Military Command Council Syrian Revolutionaries Front • Hezbollah • Iraqi Militias • Iranian Support

6. Historical Background of ISIS • The Islamic State is a transnational Sunni Islamist insurgent and terrorist group that has expanded its control over areas of parts of Iraq and Syria since 2013. (It also operates in eastern Libya, the Sinai Peninsula of Egypt, and other areas of the Middle East, North Africa, South Asia,and Southeast Asia.) • Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) ——New York Times, CNN, other media organizations Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL)——White House/US Government Daʿish or DAESH (al-Dawla al-Islamiya al-Iraq al-Sham, it speaks to a name that's very close to ISIL in Arabic and it also speaks to another name that means 'to crush underneath your foot’ ——Gulf, Lieutenant General James Terry

7. Historical Background of ISIS • The flag shows the seal of Muhammad within a white circle, with the Arabic phrase above it, "There is no God but Allah”. • The religion of ISIS is Sunni Islam. However, ISIS follows an extreme interpretation of Islam, promotes religious violence, and regards those who do not agree with its interpretations as infidels (lit. unfaithful). • ISIS’s stated goal is to create a broader Islamic caliphate. A caliphate is an Islamic state led by a group of religious authorities under a supreme leader—caliph—who is believed to be the successor to Muhammad • The leader of ISIS isAbu Bakr al-Baghdadi. Two of his deputy leaders were Abu Muslim al-Turkmani (KIA) in Iraq and Abu Ali al-Anbari in Syria. In June 2014, ISIS claimed that they had traced the lineage Al-Baghdadi back to Muhammad, leading the group to appoint al-Baghdadi as its caliph on 29 June 2014. As caliph, he demands the allegiance of all devout Muslims worldwide according to Islamic law.

8. The Rise of ISIS

9. Historical Background of ISIS • A CIA spokesperson provided an updated estimate of the IS organization’s size in September 2014, saying the group could muster 20,000 to 31,500 fighters. • As many as 16,000 foreign fighters from 90 countries have travelled to the area to fight alongside of ISIS.

10. ISIS: Sources of Funding Oil Despite sanctions, ISIS is estimated to have made millions of dollars by selling oil on the black market from the refineries and pipeline it has captured. Extortion and Ransom ISIS has relied on extortion and ransom to finance its enterprise since its inception. ISIS targeted Westerners and other high profile targets believed to have the ability to pay large ransoms for kidnapping. Once paid, they would release the hostage and repeat the process with another target. This policy began to change with the beheadings in summer 2014 as propaganda creation became a more important concern than funding. Cultural Artifacts ISIS has also sought to fund itself by selling less “offensive” antiquities to private buyers on the black market. When ISIS captured the Iraqi city of Mosul, they also captured its museum, which was the second largest in Iraq. Organ Trafficking ISIS has engaged in the harvesting of organs from captives for sale on the black market. External Funding ISIS has been generously supported by wealthy private individuals in Lebanon, Saudi Arabia and Jordan who support the organizations ideological goals.

11. Illicit Oil Sales (compiled before the late 2014 drop in oil prices)

12. ISIS: Outfitting an Army Outfitting an Army Through the means listed above, ISIS has been able to afford to outfit itself militarily to a level far above rival groups in the area. Additionally, ISIS was able to seize an extensive amount of military equipment from the Iraqi Army during its invasion of northern Iraq. Much of this equipment had been provided to Iraq by the US in order to bolster its military. Propaganda ISIS has been skilled at using social media to create support for its cause. Its strong social media presence has allowed it to appeal to sympathetic individuals across the world and has resulted in a vast increase in its recruitment. Even a small number of men and women from the West and East Asia have attempted to travel to join the group.

13. Historical Background of ISIS UPDATED Jan. 2, 2015 • Up until recently, ISIS had been advancing along two rivers, the Euphrates and the Tigris. Many large cities like Mosul, Fallujah, and Ramadi are now under ISIS control. • As of 6 November 2014, 8,000,000 people are estimated to live in areas under ISIS control.

14. Refugee Crisis

15. Human Rights Violations United Nations report highlighting the human rights violations of the Islamic State's jihadist campaign in Iraq found that while over 24,000 Iraqi civilians have been injured or killed by ISIS in the first eight months of 2014. The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) group has killed 1,878 people in Syria in the past six months, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. Ethnic and Religious Cleansing Christians, Shia Muslims, moderate Sunni Muslims, Kurds, Yazidis and many others have been targeted for harassment, torture and execution in areas under ISIS control. ISIS has declared that all individuals who do not follow their brand of Islam have three choices: convert, pay the jizya (religious tax on non-Muslims), or die. Sexual Slavery/Human Trafficking During its invasion of northern Iraq, ISIS enslaved women from the communities it conquered, particularly Christian women, and forced them into sexual slavery by “marrying” them to its fighters. In late 2014, ISIS released a pamphlet as guidance for its fighters on this topic, stating that, according to the Quran, it was permissible to enslave women, including adolescents, for sexual purposes, beat them, and trade them.

16. ISIS Pamphlet Justifying Enslavement of Women

17. Human Rights Violations Executions/Torture Following its swift invasion of northern Iraq, ISIS posted several videos online of its fighters conducting mass executions of captured Iraqi soldiers. At the local level, in the areas under its control, there have been reports of mass murder, public crucifixions, arbitrary detention and torture, etc. Attacks on Journalists Reporters Without Borders reports that local journalists have been tortured and murdered by ISIS members. Western journalists have been targeted as well, as in the case of the journalists beheaded during the summer. Destruction of Holy and Historical Sites ISIS has embarked on a campaign of cultural purification by trying to destroy historical and religious sites that do not fit within its vision for the caliphate. For example,  in July 2014, ISIS bombed the tomb and shrine of the prophet Yunus (Jonah in Christianity), the 13th century mosque of Imam Yahya Abu al-Qassimin and the 14th century shrine of prophet Jerjis (Saint George to Christians). Child Soldiers children as young as six have been kidnapped and sent to religious and military training camps by ISIS.

18. Tipping Points for ISIS Coalition forces disband the Iraqi military following the successful occupation of Iraq and exclude Baathists from power Ex-Baathists join/form resistance organizations, increasingly along sectarian lines. Many core ISIS members are ex-Baathists. Civil strife in Iraq leads to segregation and estrangement of Sunnis, Shia, and Christians from each other Mutual distrust leads to increased violence as groups target each other. After American forces left Iraq, Prime Minister Malaki sought to retaliate against and marginalize Sunnis by attempting to arrest prominent Sunnis politicians, including the vice president and finance minister. This results in growing popularity for Malaki from Shia, while earning the hatred of Sunni Iraqis. Shia militias began to increase attacks on Sunni targets. ISIS capitalizes on Sunni anger over the rise of Shia in Iraq and the loss of power. Al-Bagdadi sends agents to Syria at the outbreak of the Syrian Civil War This allows ISIS to establish a foothold in the country from the beginning of the conflict. ISIS takes Mosul Rapid victory surprised everyone; only had 800 fighters and the Iraqi military ran; ISIS captures a significant amount of Iraqi military equipment, increasing their ability to wage war.

19. Tipping Points for the International Community 7 August 2014 - ISIS advances on Erbil; Iraqi refugees are surround on Mount Sinjar US authorizes humanitarian airdrops and airstrikes in response to ISIS threats to massacre the refugees. 8 August, Obama authorizes targeted airstrikes against ISIS. 16 August 2014 – Battle at the Mosul Dam US forces coordinate airstrikes with Kurdish Peshmerga to force ISIS from the dam. Beginning of closer inter-cooperation between US and local forces The Beheadings of James Foley and Steven Sotloff ISIS retaliates against US intervention by publicly beheading these two journalists. The beheadings strengthen international support for action against ISIS, leading to the creation of an anti-ISIS military coalition in early September 2014. 10 September, Obama vows to “Degrad and Destroy” ISIS The Siege of Kobani Though ongoing, the continued resistance of Kobani against its siege by ISIS has been a symbolic victory showing that ISIS could be pushed back

20. A Message to America

21. Resolution 2178 • On September 24 , President Obama led a session of the United Nations Security Council focused on strengthening international responses to the threat posed by foreign fighters travelling to conflict zones. • Resolution 2178 required Member States consistent with international law, to prevent the “recruiting, organizing, transporting or equipping of individuals who travel to a State other than their States of residence or nationality for the purpose of the perpetration, planning of, or participation in terrorist acts.” • In December 2014, Ambassador Bradkte said, “Several countries have already enacted or proposed legislation to permit [prosecution for foreign fighter facilitation]; other countries have stepped up their enforcement of existing laws. We continue to urge partners to meet their obligations under UNSCR 2178, and are offering assistance to partners who may need help in doing so.

22. Resolution 2170 • Resolution 2170 strengthened international sanctions measures designed to combat the Islamic State, Jabhat al Nusra, and Al Qaeda-affiliated entities. • The resolution called upon all Member States “to take national measures to suppress the flow of foreign terrorist fighters to, and bring to justice, in accordance with applicable international law, foreign terrorist fighters of, ISIL, ANF and all other individuals, groups, undertakings and entities associated with Al Qaida”.

23. Resolution 2139 and Resolution 2165 • The U.N. Security Council adopted two resolutions in 2014 aimed at increasing humanitarian access and aid delivery in Syria. • In February 2014, Resolution 2139 demanded that parties “promptly allow rapid, safe and unhindered humanitarian access”. • In July 2014, Resolution 2165 authorized United Nations humanitarian agencies and their implementing partners to provide cross-border assistance with notification to the Syrian government.

24. Action taken by United States • Destruction of chemical weapons outside Syria • Destruction of production facilities • Completeness of the declaration • Funding for CW elimination efforts

25. NATO • The NATO alliance as a whole has not committed to a substantive response. • NATO previously conducted a military training mission in Iraq from 2008 to 2011. • European countries continue to rule out using ground forces in combat operations in Iraq or Syria. • on September 15 that produced further pledges to defeat the Islamic State and provide military assistance to the Iraqi government. • Subsequently, various European countries announced specific military commitments and involvement in operations. • The partner countries participating in airstrikes in Iraq are: Australia, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom.

26. Arab Countries • Some Gulf Cooperation Council countries and Jordan are conducting airstrikes against Islamic State targets in Syria, in conjunction with U.S. forces. • In September 2014, Turkey Turkish leaders have indicated willingness to consider deeper participation in the anti-IS coalition. • Turkey is allowing the use of its territory and airspace for humanitarian and logistical purposes, and adopting additional measures to curb the flow of foreign fighters to Syria.

27. Pro-Asad Countries • U.N. Security Council permanent members Russia and China are not members of the coalition, but Russia has pledged its support for counterterrorism efforts in Syria, while arguing that coalition members should include the Asad government in their efforts. • The coalition includes several countries that have cooperated with the United States in joint efforts to support the Syrian people and Syrian opposition movements during the evolving civil conflict, underscoring the challenges of forging a common set of objectives between coalition members and backers of Asad.71 Common cause with Asad and his supporters might also entail risks and drive Sunni opponents of Asad and Iran to undermine coalition efforts.

28. Failures of the International Community The International Community Waited Too Long to Intervene • ISIS has become well established and difficult to dislodge • ISIS continues to commit crimes against humanity • Tens of thousands of refugees The Response of the International Community Has Been Too Cautious In light of the failures of the Iraq War, no country is interested in sending ground forces to remove ISIS, yet airstrikes alone, in support of local forces have only had limited effect on ISIS overall ability to wage war. Lack of Commitment to Fighting ISIS A Jordanian fighter pilot was recently captured by ISIS, leading to a suspension of Jordanian airstrikes. If the capture of one man can remove a country from the coalition, the commitment of the overall coalition to the goal of defeating ISIS must be called into question. The Exclusion of Iran and Assad regime from the Anti-ISIS Coalition Although an enemy of ISIS, Iran was excluded by the US as a result of domestic political concerns. Conversely, Jordan and Saudi Arabia, countries with significant portions of their population that support ISIS ideologically and financially were allowed to join. The Assad regime was excluded for similar reasons.

30. Just Cause • Serious humanrights violation Mass murder, kidnapping, forced conversions, physical and sexual assault

31. Right Intension • Iraq: Limited air strikes. • Supply food, water to the minorities. • Iraq request to airstrike IS. • Syria: US is anti Assad and tried to change the regime

32. Last Resort • Obama and many other leaders thinks to create a national reconciliation government is the only way to stop IS. However, there aren’t any prospects for it to be realized. • They had a meeting to ceasefire the war in Syria.

33. Proportional Means • Limited airstrikes. • Not enough forces to prevent civilians from human rights violation.

34. Reasonable Prospects • Obama claimed that there is no timetable for the airstrike operation. • In Iraq Maliki was trying to take his third term as a Prime Minister, even though the President asked Haydar al Abbadi, a member of Maliki’s Dawa Party to become Prime Minister.

35. Right Authority • Resolution 2170 • “Strengthened international sanctions measures designed to combat the Islamic State”.

36. Today • Many specialists predict that the fight in Iraq will be stalemate. This means all parties who are fighting for the political power of Iraq will be interested to negotiate for the settlement. • Civil war tend to take long time to end.Especially, inside Syria, there are 13 main parties that are fighting against the government, and it is very complicated.

37. Reference • http://edition.cnn.com/interactive/2014/09/world/isis-explained/ • http://edition.cnn.com/2014/12/12/world/meast/isis-justification-female-slaves/index.html • http://edition.cnn.com/2014/12/18/politics/pentagon-now-calls-isis-daesh/index.html • http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/12/31/world/middleeast/isis-airstrikes-map.html?_r=1 • http://www.ohchr.org/Documents/HRBodies/HRCouncil/CoISyria/ • HRC_CRP_ISIS_14Nov2014.pdf • Rand, H. Dafna., Heras, A. Nicholas. (2014). How This Ends A Blueprint for De-Escalation in Syria. Center for a New American Security. • Blanchard, M., Christopher., Humud, F., Carla., Nikitin, D., Beth, Mary. (2014). Armed Conflict in Syria: Overview and U.S. Response. Congressional Research Service. • Katzman, Kenneth., Blanchard, M., Christopher., Humud, F., Carla., Margesson, Rhoda., Weed, C., Matthew. (2014). The « Islamic State » Crisis and U.S. Policy. Congressional Research Service.