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Robert E. Evenson Yale University

Knowledge for Development Seminar, Center for International Development Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, October 14, 2003. Making Science and Technology Work for the Poor. The Green Revolution in Africa The “Price of Admission” to the Growth Club for African Countries

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Robert E. Evenson Yale University

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  1. Knowledge for Development Seminar, Center for International Development Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, October 14, 2003 Making Science and Technology Work for the Poor The Green Revolution in Africa The “Price of Admission” to the Growth Club for African Countries Development Strategies for Africa Robert E. Evenson Yale University

  2. Green Revolution Stages • Landraces(Farmer Selected Varieties) • Early Modern Varieties NARS-Bred • MV1 (First Generation) IARC-Bred High-Yielding Plant Type • MV2 (Second Generation) IARC-Bred - NARS Combinations Host Plant Resistance: Diseases – Pests 5.MV3 (Third Generation) NARS-Bred, IARC Parents Host Plant Tolerance: Abiotic Stresses Agronomic Qualities

  3. The CGIAR System • The Food Security Threat • Population and Food Security • Global Market Focus • Production, Consumption and Trade • International Prices • Supporters • Foundations: Beginning in 1940s (Rockefeller – Ford) • Bilateral Aid Agencies: 1950s – 1970s • World Bank – Regional Banks:1970s - 2000 • Global Success – Low World Prices • Local Failure – Cost-Price Delivery • Excluded Economies • $1 per day – mass Poverty

  4. MV Production - Adoption • 11 Food Crops • Rice (IRRI, CIAT, WARDA) • Wheat (CIMMYT) • Maize (CIMMYT, IITA) • Sorghum (ICRISAT) • Millets (ICRISAT) • Barley (ICARDA) • Beans (CIAT) • Lentils (ICARDA) • Groundnuts (ICRISAT) • Cassava (CIAT, IITA) • Potatoes (CID) • MV Releases as MV Production • Content Indicators • IX: IARC Cross • IP: IARC Parent, NARS Cross • IA: IARC Non-Parent Ancestor – NARS Cross • N: NARS Cross No IARC Ancestor • TV: Traditional Variety

  5. Initial Conditions: Early MVs (Percent)

  6. Annual Releases: 1970s 1980s 1990s IARC Content in Releases: IX: IARC Cross. IP: NARS Cross, IARC Parent. IA: NARS Cross, IARC Ancestor. N: NARS Cross, NARS Ancestor. Adoption Shares: 1970 1980 1990 M: Modern Varieties. T: Traditional Varieties. 1998 IARC Content. Varietal Production and Varietal Adoption

  7. Rice Three Regions: Three IARCs Millions Ha’s Varietal Releases Asia (IRRI) 120 1500 Latin America (CIAT) 7 350 Africa (WARDA) 7 185 Four Ecosystems: Deep-Water (No Varietal Release). Rained (Late Success - Traits). Irrigated (Early Success). Upland (EMBRAPA - Brazil - WARDA).

  8. Rice - Asia Adoption: MV Rate High (IRRIGATED). Releases: Highest in 1980s. (1500 Varieties) IX/IA Shows Germplasm Pattern.

  9. Rice - Latin America Adoption: MV Complete on Irrigated Area, Beginning on Upland (EMBRAPA). Releases: Rising Through 1990s. (350 Varieties) IX/IA Shows Germplasm Pattern.

  10. Rice - Africa Adoption: Slow until 1990s. Releases: Low Rates of Releases. (185 Varieties) IX/IA only in 1990s.

  11. Wheat (CIMMYT) Regions: Million Ha’s Varietal Releases Asia 52 750 Latin America 8 900 Africa (SS) 5 315 WANA 25 450 Ecosystems: Winter Spring Types: Bread Durum

  12. Wheat - Asia Adoption: Rapid MV Adoption. Releases: Highest in 1980s. (750 Varieties) IX/IA Content, IX high.

  13. Wheat - Latin America Adoption: High MV Adoption. Releases: Highest in 1980s. (900 Varieties) IX/IA Constant, IX high.

  14. Wheat - WANA Adoption: Slower than Asia - Latin America. Releases: Highest in 1990s. (450 Varieties) IX/IA Content, IX high.

  15. Wheat - Africa Adoption: Slow MV Adoption. Releases: No Time Trend. (315 Varieties) IX/IA Content High.

  16. Maize (CIMMYT:IITA) Three Regions: Millions Ha’s Varietal Releases Public Private Asia (incomplete) 41 Latin America 39 760 690 Africa (IITA) 26 260 70 Qualities: Food (white) Feed (yellow) Types: Open Pollinated – Public. Hybrids - Private Seed Companies (Some Public). High IX/IA Content in Private Company Hybrids. Public Sector Platforms.

  17. Maize - Latin America Releases: Highest in 1990s. Private Rates High in 1990s. IX/IA Content High - Public and Private Releases. Adoption: 50 % MV in 1998. Most MVs have IX/IA Content. Private Public

  18. Maize - Africa Releases: Highest in 1990s. Private and Private. IX/IA Content Increasing - Public and Private. Adoption: 50 % MV in 1998. Private Public

  19. Sorghum and Pearl Millet (ICRISAT) • Regions: Million Ha’s Varietal Releases • Sorghum - Asia 15 240 • Sorghum - Africa 22 35 • Pearl Millet - Asia 16 70 • Pearl Millet - Africa 20 20 • Types: • Open- Pollinated Varieties. • Hybrid Varieties (Private Sector) • Hybrid Production Growing Rapidly. • IX/IA Content in Private Hybrids. • Public Sector Platforms for Private Sector Research.

  20. Sorghum - Asia Releases: Highest in 1990s. Private Hybrids in 1990s. IX/IA Content Moderate. Adoption: Moderate MV Adoption Rates.

  21. Sorghum - Africa Releases: Highest in 1990s. Private Hybrids in 1990s. IX/IA Content High. Adoption: MV Adoption Slow.

  22. Pearl Millet - Asia Releases: Highest in 1990s. IX/IA Content High. Adoption: MV Adoption High.

  23. Pearl Millet - Africa Releases: Low. IX/IA Content High. Adoption: MV Increasing.

  24. Beans (CIAT) Region: Million Ha’s Varietal Releases Latin America 9 540 Africa 3 Releases: High in 1990s. IX Content Very High. Adoption: MV Adoption Slow. Latin America Africa

  25. Cassava (CIAT and IITA) Regions: Million Ha’s Varietal Releases Latin America 3 70 Africa (SS) 10 150

  26. Cassava - Latin America Releases: Past 1980s. IX/IA Content Almost 100 %. Adoption: MV Adoption Very Low.

  27. Cassava - Africa Releases: Highest 1980s. IX/IA Content High. Adoption: MV Adoption Modest. All MVs have IX/IA Content.

  28. Potatoes (CIP) Regions: Million Ha’s Varietal Releases Asia 6 20 Latin America 8 200 Africa 5 100

  29. Potatoes - Asia Releases: Increasing 1990s. IX/IA Low and Rising. Adoption: Medium Level of MV Adoption.

  30. Potatoes - Latin America Releases: Increasing Slowly. IX/IA Content Increasing. Adoption: High Level of MV Adoption.

  31. Potatoes - Africa Releases: Low in 1990s, Rising. IX/IA Content High. Adoption: High Levels of MV Adoption.

  32. Modern Variety Production by Decade and Region

  33. Production of MVs • NGOs – none • Private Seed Firms • Hybrids • Little Due to Breeders’ Rights • Developed Country Programs • 60s – 70s: less than half a percent • 80s – 90s: none • IARCs: 36% • NARS: 50-60%

  34. MV1 Coverage

  35. MV3 Coverage

  36. Modern Variety Diffusion by Decade and Region

  37. MVs and Productivity Growth • MV/TV Conversion Impacts • Highest at Early Adoption • MV/MV Conversion or Turnover • Highest at Late Adoption • IARC Literature Synthesis • Incomplete • Micro-Macro Consistency • Country Studies (India, Brazil, China) • International Crop MFP Studies • rice, wheat, maize

  38. Annual Growth Contributions of Modern Varieties

  39. Costs-Benefits and Internal Rate of Return

  40. Without the Green Revolution… • Prices would have Risen. • More Imports by Developing Countries. • More Cropped Area by all Countries. • More Child Deaths • More Malnourished Children. • More Families in Poverty.

  41. For the Excluded Economies… Food Price Reductions Help Consumers Price Reductions without Cost Reductions Harms Farmers

  42. The Gene Revolution :GMOs • The Scientific Revolution Biological Science has changed • The Biotech Revolution Medical GMOs 15,000 Patented Inventions 350-500 in Treatment Regimes • Plant Inventions 5,000 Patented Inventions Major Products: Bt Products Glysophate Tolerant-Product BST milk

  43. Adoption: Herbicide Tolerant Soybeans 75% Bt Maize 20% Bt Cotton 20% Herbicide Tolerant Maize 10% • Transgenic Seed Market 2003 $4 billion • Crop Protection Market $30 billion Herbicides 15 billion Insecticides 8 billion Fungicides 6 billion

  44. Regulations • Food Safety U.S. 5200 deaths from Food Borne Illness 375,000 hospitalizations None linked to GMOs • Environmental Safety Out crossing - Yes Insect Population Shifts - Yes But Little Evidence Yet

  45. Cost considerations: Cotton • Cost Advantage - 10 Percent • 20 Percent Adoption • Low Price Elasticity of Demand • Prices Fall by 10 Percent • Costs Fall by 10 Percent for Adopters • Costs Do Not Fall for Non-Adopters

  46. The “Price of Admission” to the Growth Club • Innovation Capital R&D Capacity, Agriculture (IARC-NARS) R&D Capacity, Industry (Producing Firms) • Imitation Capital Agriculture - Agricultural Extension Industry - Foreign Direct Investment

  47. In/Im Capital Indicators for Developing Countries

  48. Country In/Im Classifications 1961-76, 1971-86, 1981-1996 (1)

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