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Paleoclimatology: The role of Pre-Instrumental Data in Understanding Reef Stress

Paleoclimatology: The role of Pre-Instrumental Data in Understanding Reef Stress. C. Mark Eakin World Data Center for Paleoclimatology NOAA National Climatic Data Center Boulder, Colorado with Andrea Grottoli, University of Pennsylvania, and Robert Halley, U.S. Geological Survey.

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Paleoclimatology: The role of Pre-Instrumental Data in Understanding Reef Stress

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  1. Paleoclimatology: The role of Pre-Instrumental Data in Understanding Reef Stress C. Mark Eakin World Data Center for Paleoclimatology NOAA National Climatic Data Center Boulder, Colorado with Andrea Grottoli, University of Pennsylvania, and Robert Halley, U.S. Geological Survey Coral Reefs, Climate, and Coral Bleaching Workshop

  2. from:Near-real-time data Paleo data Many Timescales of Coral Reef Data In Situ / Satellite Data Historical Data Coral Reefs, Climate, and Coral Bleaching Workshop

  3. Paleoclimatic Records • Why Paleoclimatic Records? • Available Data • Coming Soon • Challenges • Why Paleoclimatic Records? • Available Data • Coming Soon • Challenges Coral Reefs, Climate, and Coral Bleaching Workshop

  4. 2xCO2 The question is not if atmospheric CO2 will reach double preindustrial levels (to 560 ppm), but when. From Wigley, 2000 Coral Reefs, Climate, and Coral Bleaching Workshop

  5. Past Climate Change 2001 CO2 ~370 ppm CO2 levels have not exceeded 350 ppm since the Miocene (~24 my ago) -- when coral/algal reef development increased Petit et al. 1999

  6. Is Recent Warming Unusual? • Recent warm decades unprecedented in last 1000 years After Mann et al. 1999 Coral Reefs, Climate, and Coral Bleaching Workshop

  7. 1997 Bleaching 1998 Bleaching From Goreau (1999) 1997-1998 Global Mass Bleaching Event Coral Reefs, Climate, and Coral Bleaching Workshop

  8. What Does the Future Hold • The last 1000 years compared to IPCC 2000 scenarios After Bradley 2000 Coral Reefs, Climate, and Coral Bleaching Workshop

  9. What Global Climate Changes Influence Reefs? • CO2 Increase • Temperature Increase (ENSO) • Sea Level Rise • Changes in Storminess, Storm Tracks • Hydrologic Cycle Changes Paleoenvironmental data can provide information on most of these Coral Reefs, Climate, and Coral Bleaching Workshop

  10. Paleoclimatic Records • Why Paleoclimatic Records? • Available Data • Coming Soon • Down the Road • Challenges Coral Reefs, Climate, and Coral Bleaching Workshop

  11. Coral Data WDC-Paleo Data Holdings Paleoclimatic Data Sites US Global Tree Rings 1081 2231 Pollen 474 1424 Plant Macrofossils 55 314 Corals 2 85 Ice Cores 1 33 Borehole Data 133 837 Fauna 219 220 Insecta 20 27 Paleolimnology 13 29 Paleoceanography 19 1428 Other Paleo Data 1 8 Total 2018 6636 Coral Reefs, Climate, and Coral Bleaching Workshop www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/corals.html

  12. Warming Prevalent in Oceans • The graph shows a summary of annual resolution coral d18O isotope records, normalized to the 1923-1980 period (thick line denotes 7-year smooth ). • The data show trends consistent with warmer/wetter conditions throughout the tropics. (after Bradley et al. 2003) Coral Reefs, Climate, and Coral Bleaching Workshop

  13. Reconstructing Ocean Temperature • Paleoclimatic Data Provides High Fidelity of Reconstructions of SST • Long reconstructions critical to understanding Decadal-to-Centennial Variability 1st EOF of Instrumental SST Anomalies After Evans et al. (2000) Paleoceanography, 15 1st EOF of Paleo Reconstruction from Corals Coral Reefs, Climate, and Coral Bleaching Workshop

  14. Reconstructing Ocean Temperature • Example of reconstruction showing 1828 El Niño (Very Strong in Quinn and Neal 1992 dataset) • Data set available for 1800-present 1828 El Niño from coral records After Evans et al. (2000) Paleoceanography, 15 Coral Reefs, Climate, and Coral Bleaching Workshop

  15. 1999 1999 1995 1998 Paleoecological Data Reveal Catastrophic, Unprecedented Bleaching Widespread bleaching in Belize (from Aronson and Precht 1997, 2001) Coral Reefs, Climate, and Coral Bleaching Workshop

  16. Community change unique in last 3000 years Paleoecological Data Reveal Catastrophic, Unprecedented Bleaching Widespread bleaching in Belize (from Aronson and Precht 1997, 2001) Coral Reefs, Climate, and Coral Bleaching Workshop

  17. Tropical Paleoclimatic Data Currently in the World Data Center for Paleoclimatology www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/corals.html Accessing the Data • Easy access to paleodata is now possible through a variety of NOAA sources. Coral Reefs, Climate, and Coral Bleaching Workshop

  18. At www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo Access Metadata, download data and plots Data Access Tools: WebMapper Coral Reefs, Climate, and Coral Bleaching Workshop

  19. Coral Data Borehole Data Ice Core Data Tree Ring Data Data Access Tools: GIS http://map1.ngdc.noaa.gov/ Coral Reefs, Climate, and Coral Bleaching Workshop

  20. Data Access Tools: CoRIS Coral Reefs, Climate, and Coral Bleaching Workshop

  21. Paleoclimatic Records • Why Paleoclimatic Records? • Available Data • Coming Soon • Challenges Coral Reefs, Climate, and Coral Bleaching Workshop

  22. Extending instrumental data back in time Molasses Reef Looe Key NOAA Coral Reef Watch Paleodata: Florida Keys South Florida New data will be available in 2004 Coral Reefs, Climate, and Coral Bleaching Workshop Eakin, Swart, Quinn, Dodge, Halley (in progress)

  23. NOAA Coral Reef Watch Paleodata: Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands Caribbean Salinity Experiment (CASE) • tracking of water circulation and inputs from the sub-tropical Atlantic Gyre, cross equatorial thermohaline transport, and the temporal/spatial extent of the Western Hemisphere Warm Pool (WHWP) in the Caribbean. • Nova Southeastern University (NSU), the University of Miami, and the University of South Florida Coral Reefs, Climate, and Coral Bleaching Workshop Eakin, Swart, Quinn, Dodge, Halley (in progress)

  24. Warmer, wetter Millennial-Scale Records Coral Record from Palmyra d18O After Cobb (in press), Nature Coral Reefs, Climate, and Coral Bleaching Workshop Year

  25. Composite Coral Record from Palmyra d18O Warmer, wetter Year Millennial-Scale Records After Cobb (in press), Nature Coral Reefs, Climate, and Coral Bleaching Workshop

  26. Paleoclimatic Records • Why Paleoclimatic Records? • Available Data • Coming Soon • Challenges: Detecting Past Bleaching Events Coral Reefs, Climate, and Coral Bleaching Workshop

  27. Looe Key August 6-10, 2002 Comparing Fluorescence Markers to Growth Bands to identify loss of bands due to bleaching Detecting Past Bleaching Events Coral Reefs, Climate, and Coral Bleaching Workshop Halley and Hudson (unpublished)

  28. Looe Key August 6-10, 2002 Detecting Past Bleaching Events Comparing Fluorescence Markers to Growth Bands to identify loss of bands due to bleaching • Data for Biscayne National Park show no signs of bleaching between 1878-1986 • Suggests widespread coral bleaching is a phenomenon unique to the past two decades Coral Reefs, Climate, and Coral Bleaching Workshop Halley and Hudson (unpublished)

  29. d13C and d18Oin coral skeleton d13C d18O Detecting Past Bleaching Events Natural bleaching event in Kaneohe Bay, Hawaii August 1996 • Good News: Preliminary evidence suggests bleaching may cause changes in coral skeletal carbon isotope • Bad news: Changes in oxygen isotope could interfere with corresponding temperature estimates Coral Reefs, Climate, and Coral Bleaching Workshop Grottoli et al (unpublished)

  30. Detecting Past Bleaching Events *** *** *** ** * *** *** *** Burr (unpublished) Coral Reefs, Climate, and Coral Bleaching Workshop

  31. Detecting Past Bleaching Events • Corals and zooxanthellae produce antioxidant enzymes in response to oxidative stress of high temperatures • These enzymes use Cu, Ag and Se in scavenging toxic oxygen *** *** *** ** * *** *** *** Burr (unpublished) Coral Reefs, Climate, and Coral Bleaching Workshop

  32. Detecting Past Bleaching Events Unbleached Bleached 20X 20X scale bars 500m, Porites divericata Coral Reefs, Climate, and Coral Bleaching Workshop Burr (unpublished)

  33. Paleoclimatic Records Summary • Value of Paleoclimatic Records • Data: Many Available and More Coming • Overcoming the Challenges • Funding Needs: • More records from locations of management interest • Research funds to overcome challenges Coral Reefs, Climate, and Coral Bleaching Workshop

  34. Thanks to A. Strong, J. Kleypas, A. Grottoli, R. Aronson, S. Burr, and R. Halley for presentation materials. Coral Reefs, Climate, and Coral Bleaching Workshop

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