Decision Tools to Evaluate Vulnerabilities and Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change
Download
1 / 62

Decision Tools to Evaluate Vulnerabilities and Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change The Water Resource Sector - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 203 Views
  • Uploaded on

Decision Tools to Evaluate Vulnerabilities and Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change The Water Resource Sector. Outline. Vulnerability and adaptation with respect to water resources Hydrologic implications of climate change for water resources Topics covered in a water resources assessment

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about 'Decision Tools to Evaluate Vulnerabilities and Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change The Water Resource Sector' - mayes


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript
Slide1 l.jpg

Decision Tools to Evaluate Vulnerabilities and Adaptation Strategies to Climate ChangeThe Water Resource Sector


Outline l.jpg
Outline Strategies to Climate Change

  • Vulnerability and adaptation with respect to water resources

  • Hydrologic implications of climate change for water resources

  • Topics covered in a water resources assessment

  • Viewing water resources from a services perspective

  • Tools/models

  • WEAP model presentation


Effective v a assessments l.jpg
Effective V&A Assessments Strategies to Climate Change

  • Defining V&A assessment

    • Often V&A is analysis, not assessment

    • Why? Because the focus is on biophysical impacts, e.g., hydrologic response, crop yields, forests, etc.

  • However, assessment is an integrating process requiring the interface of physical and social science and public policy


Effective v a assessments continued l.jpg
Effective V&A Assessments Strategies to Climate Change(continued)

  • General questions

    • What is the assessment trying to influence?

    • How can the science/policy interface be most effective?

    • How can the participants be most effective in the process?

  • General problems

    • Participants bring differing objectives/ expertise

    • These differences often lead to dissention/ differing opinions


Effective v a assessments continued5 l.jpg
Effective V&A Assessments (continued) Strategies to Climate Change

  • To be valuable, the assessment process requires

    • Relevancy

    • Credibility

    • Legitimacy

    • Consistent participation

  • An interdisciplinary process

    • The assessment process often requires a tool

    • The tool is usually a model or suite of models

    • These models serve as the interface

    • This interface is a bridge for dialogue between scientists and policy makers


Water resources a critical v a sector l.jpg

Natural Strategies to Climate Change

Systems

External

Pressure

State of System

Little Control

of processes

Water Resources – A Critical V&A Sector

  • Often critical to both managed and natural systems

  • Human activity influences both systems

Managed

Systems

External

Pressure

Product, good or service

Process Control

services

Example: Agriculture

Example: Wetlands


Examples of adaptation water supply l.jpg
Examples of Adaptation – Strategies to Climate ChangeWater Supply

  • Construction/modification of physical infrastructure

    • Canal linings

    • Closed conduits instead of open channels

    • Integrating separate reservoirs into a single system

    • Reservoirs/mydroplants/delivery systems

    • Raising dam wall height

    • Increasing canal size

    • Removing sediment from reservoirs for more storage

    • Interbasin water transfers


Examples of adaptation water supply continued l.jpg
Examples of Adaptation – Strategies to Climate ChangeWater Supply(continued)

  • Adaptive management of existing water supply systems

    • Change operating rules

    • Use conjunctive surface/groundwater supply

    • Physically integrate reservoir operation system

    • Coordinate supply/demand


Examples of adaptation water supply continued9 l.jpg
Examples of Adaptation – Strategies to Climate ChangeWater Supply (continued)

  • Policy, conservation, efficiency, and technology

    • Domestic

      • Municipal and in-home re-use

      • Leak repair

      • Rainwater collection for nonpotable uses

      • Low flow appliances

      • Dual supply systems (potable and nonpotable)

    • Agricultural

      • Irrigation timing and efficiency

      • Lining of canals, closed conduits

      • Drainage re-use, use of wastewater effluent

      • High value/low water use crops

      • Drip, micro-spray, low-energy, precision application irrigation systems

      • Salt-tolerant crops that can use drain water


Examples of adaptation water supply continued10 l.jpg
Examples of Adaptation – Strategies to Climate ChangeWater Supply (continued)

  • Policy, conservation, efficiency, and technology (continued)

    • Industrial

      • Water re-use and recycling

      • Closed cycle and/or air cooling

      • More efficient hydropower turbines

      • Cooling ponds, wet towers and dry towers

    • Energy (hydropower)

      • Reservoir re-operation

      • Cogeneration (beneficial use of waste heat)

      • Additional reservoirs and hydropower stations

      • Low head run of the river hydropower

      • Market/price-driven transfers to other activities

      • Using water price to shift water use between sectors


Tools in water resource v a studies l.jpg
Tools in Water Resource Strategies to Climate ChangeV&A Studies

  • Hydrologic models (physical processes)

    • Simulate river basin hydrologic processes

    • Examples – water balance, rainfall-runoff, lake simulation, stream water quality models

  • Water resource models (physical and management)

    • Simulate current and future supply/demand of system

    • Operating rules and policies

    • Environmental impacts

    • Hydroelectric production

    • Decision support systems (DSS) for policy interaction


Tools in water resource v a studies continued l.jpg
Tools in Water Resource Strategies to Climate ChangeV&A Studies (continued)

  • Economic models

    • Macroeconomic

      • Multiple sectors of the economy

      • General equilibrium – all markets are in equilibrium

    • Sectoral level

      • Single market or closely related markets (e.g., agriculture)

    • Firm level

      • Farm-level model (linear programming approach)

      • Microsimulation


Hydrologic implications of climate change l.jpg
Hydrologic Implications of Strategies to Climate ChangeClimate Change

  • Precipitation amount

    • Global average increase

    • Marked regional differences

  • Precipitation frequency and intensity

    • Less frequent, more intense (Trenberth et al., 2003)

  • Evaporation and transpiration

    • Increase total evaporation

    • Regional complexities due to plant/atmosphere interactions


Hydrologic implications of climate change continued l.jpg
Hydrologic Implications of Strategies to Climate ChangeClimate Change (continued)

  • Changes in runoff

    • Despite global precipitation increases, areas of substantial runoff decrease

  • Coastal zones

    • Saltwater intrusion into coastal aquifers

    • Severe storm-surge flooding

  • Water quality

    • Lower flows could lead to higher contaminant concentrations

    • Higher flows could lead to greater leaching and sediment transport


Africa example echam4 opyc l.jpg
Africa Example – ECHAM4/OPYC Strategies to Climate Change


Africa example gfdlr30 l.jpg
Africa Example – Strategies to Climate ChangeGFDLR30


What problems are we trying to address l.jpg
What Problems Are Strategies to Climate ChangeWe Trying to Address?

  • Water planning (daily, weekly, monthly, annual)

    • Local and regional

    • Municipal and industrial

    • Ecosystems

    • Reservoir storage

    • Competing demand

  • Operation of infrastructure and hydraulics(daily and sub-daily)

    • Dam and reservoir operation

    • Canal control

    • Hydropower optimization

    • Flood and floodplain inundation


The water resource sector water s trade off landscape l.jpg
The Water Resource Sector Strategies to Climate ChangeWater’s “Trade-Off” Landscape


Water resources from a services perspective l.jpg
Water Resources from Strategies to Climate Changea Services Perspective

  • Not just an evaluation of rainfall-runoff or streamflow

  • But an evaluation of the potential impacts of global warming on the goods and services provided by freshwater systems


Freshwater ecosystem services l.jpg
Freshwater Ecosystem Services Strategies to Climate Change

Extractable; Direct Use; Indirect Use


Tools to use for the assessment referenced water models l.jpg
Tools to Use for the Assessment: Referenced Water Models Strategies to Climate Change

  • Planning

    • WEAP21 (also hydrology)

    • Aquarius

    • SWAT

    • IRAS (Interactive River and Aquifer Simulation)

    • RIBASIM

    • MIKE 21 and BASIN


Referenced water models continued l.jpg
Referenced Water Models Strategies to Climate Change(continued)

  • Operational and hydraulic

  • HEC

    • HEC-HMS – event-based rainfall-runoff (provides input to HEC-RAS for doing 1-d flood inundation “mapping”)

    • HEC-RAS – one-dimensional steady and unsteady flow

    • HEC-ResSim – reservoir operation modeling

  • WaterWare

  • RiverWare

  • MIKE11

  • Delft3d


Current focus planning and hydrologic implications of climate change l.jpg
Current Focus – Planning and Strategies to Climate ChangeHydrologic Implications of Climate Change

  • Select models of interest

    • Deployed on PC; extensive documentation; ease of use

    • WEAP21

    • SWAT

    • HEC suite

    • Aquarius


Physical hydrology and water management models l.jpg
Physical Hydrology and Strategies to Climate ChangeWater Management Models

  • AQUARIS advantage: Economic efficiency criterion requiring the reallocation of stream flows until the net marginal return in all water uses is equal

    • Cannot be climatically driven


Physical hydrology and water management models continued l.jpg
Physical Hydrology and Strategies to Climate ChangeWater Management Models (continued)

  • SWAT management decisions on water, sediment, nutrient and pesticide yields with reasonable accuracy on ungauged river basins. Complex water quality constituents.

    • Rainfall-runoff, river routing on a daily timestep


Physical hydrology and water management models continued27 l.jpg
Physical Hydrology and Strategies to Climate ChangeWater Management Models (continued)

  • WEAP21 advantage: seamlessly integrating watershed hydrologic processes with water resources management

    • Can be climatically driven


Physical hydraulic water management model l.jpg
Physical Hydraulic Strategies to Climate ChangeWater Management Model

  • HEC-HMS watershed scale, event based hydrologic simulation, of rainfall-runoff processes

    • Sub-daily rainfall-runoff processes of small catchments


Overview weap21 l.jpg
Overview WEAP21 Strategies to Climate Change

  • Hydrology and planning

  • Planning (water distribution) examples and exercises

  • Adding hydrology to the model

  • User interface

  • Scale

  • Data requirements and resources

  • Calibration and validation

  • Results

  • Scenarios

  • Licensing and registration


Hydrology model l.jpg
Hydrology Model Strategies to Climate Change

  • Critical questions

    • How does rainfall on a catchment translate into flow in a river?

    • What pathways does water follow as it moves through a catchment?

    • How does movement along these pathways impact the magnitude, timing, duration, and frequency of river flows?


Planning model l.jpg
Planning Model Strategies to Climate Change

  • Critical questions

    • How should water be allocated to various uses in time of shortage?

    • How can these operations be constrained to protect the services provided by the river?

    • How should infrastructure in the system (e.g., dams, diversion works) be operated to achieve maximum benefit?

    • How will allocation, operations, and operating constraints change if new management strategies are introduced into the system?


A simple system with weap21 l.jpg

40 Strategies to Climate Change

60

A Simple System with WEAP21


An infrastructure constraint l.jpg

10 Unmet Strategies to Climate Change

30

70

An Infrastructure Constraint


A regulatory constraint l.jpg

10 Unmet Strategies to Climate Change

30

70

IFR Met

A Regulatory Constraint


Different priorities l.jpg

40 Strategies to Climate Change

60

0

10 unmet

Different Priorities

  • For example, the demands of large farmers (70 units) might be Priority 1 in one scenario whereas the demands of smallholders (40 units) may be Priority 1 in another


Different preferences l.jpg
Different Preferences Strategies to Climate Change

  • For example, a center pivot operator may prefer to take water from a tributary because of lower pumping costs

30

10

0

90


Example l.jpg
Example Strategies to Climate Change

  • How much water will the site with 70 units of demand receive?


Example continued l.jpg
Example Strategies to Climate Change(continued)

  • How much water will be flowing in the reach between the Priority 2 diversion and the Priority 1 return flow?


Example continued39 l.jpg
Example Strategies to Climate Change(continued)

  • What could we do to ensure that this reach does not go dry?


What are we assuming l.jpg
What Are We Assuming? Strategies to Climate Change

  • That we know how much water is flowing at the top of each river

  • That no water is naturally flowing into or out of the river as it moves downstream

  • That we know what the water demands are with certainty

  • Basically, that this system has been removed from its hydologic context


What do we do now l.jpg
What Do We Do Now? Strategies to Climate Change


Add hydrology l.jpg
Add Hydrology Strategies to Climate Change


Slide43 l.jpg

And this is the Climate Interface Strategies to Climate Change



The weap 2 bucket hydrology module l.jpg
The WEAP 2-Bucket in WEAP21Hydrology Module

Surface Runoff =

f(Pe,z1,1/LAI)

Sw

Dw


One 2 bucket model per land class l.jpg
One 2-Bucket Model in WEAP21per Land Class


Some comments l.jpg
Some Comments in WEAP21

  • The number of parameters in the model is fairly limited and is at least related to the biophysical characteristics of the catchment

  • The irrigation routine includes an implicit notion of field level irrigation efficiency

  • Seepage can only pass from the lower bucket to the river, not the other way



Some comments49 l.jpg
Some Comments Representation

  • The geometry of the aquifers in question is representative, not absolute

  • The stream stage is assumed to be invariant in this module

  • Although the “water table” can fluctuate, it ignores all local fluctuations


The weap21 graphical user interface l.jpg
The WEAP21 Graphical RepresentationUser Interface

Languages:

Interface Only

English

French

Chinese

Spanish


Weap s temporal and spatial scale l.jpg
WEAP’s Temporal and RepresentationSpatial Scale

  • Time step: daily, weekly, monthly, etc.

  • No routing, because all demands satisfied within the current time step

  • Time step at least as long as the residence time of period of lowest flow

  • Larger watersheds require longer time steps (e.g., one month)

  • Smaller watersheds can apply shorter time steps (e.g., 1-day, 5-day, 10-day)


Some ideas on catchment size l.jpg
Some Ideas on RepresentationCatchment Size

  • Small: < 100 km2

  • Medium: 100 to 1,000 km2

  • Large: 1,000 to 10,000 km2

  • Very large: 10,000 to 100,000 km2


Data requirements l.jpg
Data Requirements Representation

  • Prescribed supply (riverflow given as fixed time series)

    • Time series data of riverflows (headflows) cfs

    • River network (connectivity)

  • Alternative supply via physical hydrology (watersheds generate riverflow)

    • Watershed attributes

      • Area, land cover . . .

    • Climate

      • Precipitation, temperature, windspeed, and relative humidity


Data requirements continued l.jpg
Data Requirements Representation(continued)

  • Water demand data

    • Municipal and industrial demand

      • Aggregated by sector (manufacturing, tourism, etc.)

      • Disaggregated by population (e.g., use/capita, use/socioeconomic group)

    • Agricultural demands

      • Aggregated by area (# hectares, annual water-use/hectare)

      • Disaggregated by crop water requirements

    • Ecosystem demands (in-stream flow requirements)


Example data resources l.jpg
Example Data Resources Representation

  • Climate

  • http://www.mara.org.za/climatecd/info.htm

  • Hydrology

  • http://www.dwaf.gov.za/hydrology/

  • GIS

  • http://www.sahims.net/gis/

  • General

  • http://www.weap21.org (resources)


Calibration and validation l.jpg
Calibration and Validation Representation

  • Model evaluation criteria

    • Flows along mainstem and tributaries

    • Reservoir storage and release

    • Water diversions from other basins

    • Agricultural water demand and delivery

    • Municipal and industrial water demands and deliveries

    • Groundwater storage trends and levels


Modeling streamflow l.jpg
Modeling Streamflow Representation


Reservoir storage l.jpg
Reservoir Storage Representation


Looking at results l.jpg
Looking at Results Representation


Weap21 developing climate change and other scenarios l.jpg
WEAP21 – Developing Climate Change and Other Scenarios Representation

  • The scenario editor readily accommodates scenario analysis, e.g.,

    • Climate change scenarios and assumptions

    • Future demand assumptions

    • Future watershed development assumptions


Licensing weap l.jpg
Licensing WEAP Representation

  • Go to www.weap21.org and register for a new license (free for government, university, and non-profit organizations in developing countries)

  • Register WEAP under Help menu and select “Register WEAP”


ad