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Sustainable intensification of crop-livestock systems to improve food security and farm income diversification in the Ethiopian highlands ILRI-Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 30 Jan - 2 Feb2012. Sustainable Intensification of Farming Systems: M&E Goals, Implementation Strategy,

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Carlo azzarri melanie bacou ali bittinger zhe guo

Sustainable intensification of crop-livestock systems to improve food security

and farm income diversification in the Ethiopian highlands

ILRI-Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 30 Jan - 2 Feb2012

Sustainable Intensification of Farming Systems:

M&E Goals, Implementation Strategy,

and Data & Analysis Platform

Carlo Azzarri, Melanie Bacou, Ali Bittinger, Zhe Guo,

Dave Hodson, Jawoo Koo, An Notenbaert,

RiaTenorio, Pierre Sibiry Traore, Stanley Wood


M e guiding principles

M&E Guiding Principles

  • FtF Compliance:Conform to the FtF (& GoE?) core indicators

  • Multi-scale, Multi-site reporting: Meet broad stakeholder needs and support multi-scale/multi-site M&E through;

    • Action-site, sub-system and system reporting

    • Country reports:Breakout of site reports to serve national stakeholder needs

    • Regional Site-reports: for each of the three regional SI program sites

    • SSA-reports: cross-system reporting and SI-wide “roll-up” of indicators across: Sudano-Sahelianzone, Ethiopian Highlands, Eastern and Southern Africa

  • Monitoring & projection:Provide monitoring reports andshort-term projections (targets) of key M&E indicators for intervention sites in project “Zone of Influence”, updated annually

  • Scaling indicators up and out (spatial & temporal): Using a range of biophysical, bio-economic , market and welfare models to undertake ex ante analysis of output, outcome, and impact indicators. (Keywords: extrapolation, aggregation, trade-offs, spillover potential, sustainability, welfare and environmental goals)

  • Open-access data and analysis platform: Maintain a transparent, open-access M&E data management and analysis platform to serve the needs of SI stakeholders


Ftf usaid required indicators

FtFUSAID “Required” Indicators


Ftf usaid required if applicable indicators

FtF USAID “Required if Applicable” Indicators


Ftf usaid required if applicable indicators1

FtF USAID “Required if Applicable” Indicators


Ftf usaid required if applicable indicators2

FtF USAID “Required if Applicable” Indicators


Ftf usaid required if applicable indicators3

FtF USAID “Required if Applicable” Indicators


Carlo azzarri melanie bacou ali bittinger zhe guo

SI Monitoring and Reporting Levels

& Spillovers

Eastern & Southern Africa Maize-based Systems

Sudano-Sahelian Zone

+

+

+

Ethiopian Highlands

+

Fostering Spillover by Design

Action

Sites

+

Implementation sites to local sub-systems

Implementation to non-implementation sub-systems

Sub-systems to (sub-) systems

Systems to systems

Sites to sites

Sub-

Systems

+

Systems


Targeting priorities hypotheses sites

Targeting, Priorities, Hypotheses & Sites

Source: Dixon el al. 2001


Targeting priorities hypotheses sites1

Targeting, Priorities, Hypotheses & Sites

Source: Zhe Guo (HarvestChoice 2011)


Targeting priorities hypotheses sites2

Targeting, Priorities, Hypotheses & Sites

Source: Ethiopian Highlands SI Concept Note 2012


West africa conceptual framework for site selection technology screening and deployment

West Africa: Conceptual Framework for Site Selection, Technology Screening and Deployment

Sub-system

Resource Potential

(Land, Rainfall)

Upper West Region

Bougouni

+

NEXT

Spatial analysis to provide geographic definition and characterization of such “representative” sub-systems domains

Upper East Region

Koutiala

+

Sub-system Anthropization

(Market Access, Population Density)

Site/HH Specific Attributes

(Topography, Endowment)Household Typologies


Hh crop enterprise diversification

HH Crop Enterprise Diversification

Note: to be included in each farming system, the minimum land size of each crop is .02 ha


Carlo azzarri melanie bacou ali bittinger zhe guo

Intensification of Wheat Production

(HH Scale Characterization)


Intensification metrics si index

Intensification Metrics: SI index

  • Normalized index with weights based on the first principal component, the linear combination capturing the greatest variation among the set of variables:

    -input index* (imp. seed, org & inorgfert, pesticide, extension…)

    -land size

    -head’s education

    -[crop] farm land

    -[crop] production share

    -[crop] farm land share

    -[crop] yield


Carlo azzarri melanie bacou ali bittinger zhe guo

Mean Yield (kg/ha)

4000

2.Yield responses to fertilizer

1. Agro-climatic suitability

Variety: Digelu Variety: Veery

No

Fertilizer

No fert.

Kenya Ethiopia

100%

Rec. Fert.

Recommended

Fertilizer Rate

No fert.

100%

Rec. Fert.

RAINFED WHEAT

Transport cost:

Port to

Farm-gate

Wheat farming enterprise data

Yield Yield

3.Modeling of farm-gate prices

4.Profitability analysis

Transport cost: Capital to

Farm-gate

International wheat and fertilizer prices

Profitability

Sensitivity

Analysis

Tool (Excel)

Net Economic Return and Potential Production

Source: CIMMYT – HarvestChoice “Wheat Potential for Africa “ (2011)


Some key m e activities

Some Key M&E Activities

  • Stratification of farming systems: Relies on the fusion of spatially-explicit agricultural production, environmental, and farm/household data, and hypotheses on SI evolution and impact pathways (linked to site selection & sampling design)

  • Map planned interventions into indicators:

  • Design & Conduct of Surveys: To provide periodic, robust estimates of agreed indicators for target populations in PZoI (and satisfy other analytical data needs)

  • Maintaining a Technology/Intervention Inventory: A characterized inventory of the farming system components whose integration, adoption and impact is being evaluated. Includes characterization of spillover potential.

  • Establishing a Linked System of Models: To support M&E reporting cycle(up/out-scaling and projections with and w/o SI interventions), of output, outcome and impact indicators

  • Attribution assessment: Beyond monitoring and modeling change in indicators is the need (with additional information/assumptions) to attribute changes to the extent required by donors (ex post studies?)


M e implementation strategy to date

M&E Implementation Strategy (to date)

  • Establish Core FtF Monitoring Obligations: Primarily with USAID Washington (e.g., agree required core indicators and reporting timelines)

  • Recruit M&E Coordinator: IFPRI to recruit SI M&E Coordinator (Senior International Research position) with support staff in addition to DC-based team.

  • Establish M&E Implementation Community: To contribute to and finalize project M&E design, as well as guide, participate in and review M&E work plans and deliverables (composition, e.g., M&E specialist/liaison from involved CG centers, donor and national and regional partners).

  • M&E Open-Access, Web-Based Platform: To host and make accessible SI M&E plans, documents, and annual reports, as well as background publications, underlying datasets and analytical tools. Promote and apply standards for farming system, technology and impact characterization.

  • Annual M&E Technical Meeting: Likely aligned with proposed Project-wide Annual meeting (Need for cross-site planning and review meetings?)


Carlo azzarri melanie bacou ali bittinger zhe guo

Year 1 Timeline

Component

Inventory

Site Selection/

Characterization

Component DB

Activity -> Indicator List

Survey Design

Baseline Survey

Potential Impact Evaluation: Scaling Out & Projection

1-3 Months

3-9 Months

9-12 Months


Site station r d inventory

Site/Station (& R&D) Inventory

  • Station Location (if known, Lat:___ Long: ___)

    • Location Name: ________________________________

    • District: _____________ Region: __________________

  • Site/Station Full Name: ______________________

  • Institution: ________________________________

  • Technologies/Practices tested/demonstrated

  • Contact details


Issues questions

Issues/Questions

  • Making an appropriate split of M&E resources between the M & the E? (e.g., strong interest in early assessments of outcomes and impact over time)

  • Process of selecting components? (responds to supply or demand?)

  • Likely cost of meeting donor’s minimum indicator needs?

  • Internal project management versus strategic M&E needs?

  • Establishing shared roles in data and tool development and application between implementation partners and M&E team (involve scientists in M&E team)?

    • e.g. obtaining appropriate cross-fertilization between M&E team and other teams in site selection, field data collection, annual reporting/analysis? Any feeling this should be “arms-length”?

  • What interest in being part of the M&E community (especially from national partners)?

  • Any likely candidates for M&E Coordinator?


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