Oregon Population Forecast Program Rulemaking Advisory Committee (RAC)

1. Oregon Population Forecast Program Rulemaking Advisory Committee (RAC) Population Research Center (PRC)

2. RAC Meeting Agenda • Committee member introductions • Review charge of the Oregon Population Forecast Program • Review and discuss the Operating Principles document of the RAC PRC Website: http://www.pdx.edu/prc

3. RAC Meeting Agenda continued… • Make recommendations and discuss: • HB 2253—Section 2(4): 4-year city-county coordinated forecast proposal • HB 2253—Section 2(6): Forecast intervals for the 50-year forecast period and related age-cohort detail • HB 2253—Section 2(10): Rules to implement the population forecast program

4. Oregon Population Forecast Program • Charges PSU with city-county coordinated population forecasting (reassigned from counties) • PSU provides county-level forecasts annually, and; • Coordinated city-county forecasts every four years • Process is dependent on local public input and public participation

5. Oregon Population Forecast Program: 4-Year Schedule *Includes 5-year age groups by sex

6. PRC Proposal

7. City-County Coordinated Population Forecast—Proposed Year 1

8. City-County Coordinated Population Forecast—Proposed Year 2

9. City-County Coordinated Population Forecast—Proposed Year 3

10. Deliverables • Annual county-level forecasts [Years 1-4] • 50 year horizon • 5-year age cohorts by sex • Coordinated county and city-level (UGB) forecasts [Years 2-4] • Report containing: • Includes information for all cities and counties • Summary of demographic trends, data gathered from surveys, information collected from city and county officials, as well as the public, and assumptions about future growth • Short technical document specific to forecast methods employed

11. Proposed Annual City-County Coordinated Forecast Approach • Month 7—Release Preliminary population forecasts • Month 8—Hold 2nd public meeting: • Seek input for potential modifications • Collect additional data and local input not previously submitted • Month 9—Issue Proposed population forecasts and begin Review Period

12. Outlining the Challenge Process • Commences with the release of the Proposed population forecast • 45 day review period during which a city can “challenge” the forecast by providing additional information to support proposed change • To be considered: • Person or organization able to submit a formal challenge; • Types of data that must accompany a formal challenge, and; • Other considerations

13. Population Forecasting Models • Cohort-Component model • Disaggregates population into 5-year age cohorts and explicitly assumes: • Likelihood of demographic events (fertility, mortality, and migration) is inextricably linked to a persons gender and age • Housing Unit model • Population forecasts driven by total housing units, occupancy rate, and persons per household • Includes group quarters populations

14. Types of Data Collected • Primary data • Public officials, planners, and other city personnel • Housing developer survey • Secondary data • U.S. Census Bureau • 2000 and 2010 decennial Censuses of Population and Housing • Enumerated population by age and sex, and housing • American Community Survey (ACS) • Migration, income, poverty, and educational attainment • Oregon Employment Department, Workforce and Economic Research • Historical and current employment data, and projections • General economic trends • Likely future employers

15. Types of Data Collected • Secondary data continued… • Oregon Department of Transportation • Transportation infrastructure • Future plans • Oregon Center for Health Statistics • Birth and death data • Population Research Center (PRC) • Certified annual population estimates • Oregon Department of Education • K-12 school enrollment data • City, Regional, and County Planning departments • Qualitative data not obtained in surveys

16. Local and Public Input • Two meetings • 1st meeting (Month 2) • Explain forecasting methodology and process • Gather additional data and local input • Provide background of locally-specific demographic trends • 2nd meeting (Month 8) • Provide officials with proposed forecast results • Seek input for potential modifications • Gather additional data and local input not previously received

17. Oregon Population Forecast Program Rulemaking Advisory Committee (RAC) Population Research Center (PRC)

18. Oregon Population Estimates Program • Population Estimates • Refers to a point in time estimate of population in the present or in the past • Usual estimate date of July 1 • Distribution of state revenue to communities • Primary data collection instrument: • Annual Estimates Survey • Now electronic!

19. Population Forecasts • Population Forecasts • An estimation of future population based on historic and current trends, and assumptions about likely future events • Oregon law requires counties to prepare and update coordinated population forecasts • 20-year horizon • Serve as the basis for growth management • UGB expansions • Planning-related issues (transportation planning, school facility plans, and capital improvement)

20. Population Forecast Workgroup • June 2011—Oregon stakeholders meet to identify and address concerns specific to population forecasting and Oregon land-use laws • Some identified issues: • Cost • Different demographic methods • City and county coordination • Outdated population forecasts • Controversial and subject to litigation

21. Outlining a New Way Forward for Population Forecasting • Presentation objectives: • What is the Oregon Population Forecast Program? • What do the changes in population forecasting mean for my city? • What are the benefits of the Oregon Population Forecast Program? • In the coming months, what can I expect (in terms of process) and how can I prepare my city to be ready for these changes?

22. Benefits of the Oregon Population Forecast Program • Updated, timely forecasts • 50-year time horizon for other planning requirements • Consistent forecast methodology • Systematic incorporation of local and public input • Reduction of challenges and lawsuits • Adoption of PSU forecast is not a land-use decision and therefore, not appealable to LUBA

23. Benefits of the Oregon Population Forecast Program • Improved efficiency • Allows us to leverage data from existing Population Estimates program • Fully funded by state resources • Cost savings to cities and counties