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Study on Container Throughput Forecasting for Shipping and Port Development Strategies in the APEC Region. KOREA MARITIME INSTITUTE. CONTENTS. Korea Maritime Institute. CHANGES IN MARITIME ENVIRONMENT NEEDS FOR THE STRTEGIES OBJECTIVES METHODOLOGY SCHEDULE AND BUDGET.

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Presentation Transcript
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Study on Container Throughput Forecasting for Shipping and Port Development Strategies in the APEC Region

KOREA MARITIME INSTITUTE

slide2

CONTENTS

Korea Maritime Institute

  • CHANGES IN MARITIME ENVIRONMENT
  • NEEDS FOR THE STRTEGIES
  • OBJECTIVES
  • METHODOLOGY
  • SCHEDULE AND BUDGET
slide3

Changes in Global Economy

Korea Maritime Institute

GLOBALIZATION

WTO REGIME (ECONOMIC LIBERALISM)

ECONOMIC BLOC (FTA)

TRADE VOLUME INCREASE

slide4

CONTAINER PORT THROUGHPUT

Korea Maritime Institute

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CHANGES IN CONTAINER SHIPPING ENVIRONMENT

Korea Maritime Institute

  • CHANGE CLIENT DEMANDS
  • ALLIANCE, M&A
  • INCREASING CONCENTRATION
  • EMERGENCE OF BIG SHIP
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CHANGES IN CONTAINER PORT

Korea Maritime Institute

  • CARRIER DIRVEN PORT DEVELOPMENT
  • PRIVATIZATION
  • MEGA HUB PORT
  • INTERNATIONAL PORT OPERATOR
  • ENVRONMENTAL PRESSURE
slide7

ECONOMIC INDICATORS OF APEC REGION

Korea Maritime Institute

  • POPULATION: 2.5 billion (42.2% OF WORLD)
  • GDP: US$ 18 trillion (in 2000)
  • TRADE: 46.76% OF GLOBAL TRADE (in 2000)
  • TOP 5 WORLD CONTAINER PORTS (IN 2001)

: HK, SINGAPORE, BUSAN, KAOHSIUNG, SHANGHAI

  • CONT. PORT THRUPUT: 139 m TEU (in 2000)

: 61.5% of WORLD TOTAL

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NEED FOR STRATEGIES FOR PORT DEVELOPMENT AND SHIPPING NETWORK

Korea Maritime Institute

  • PORT DEVELOPMENT

: HUGE AND LONG-TERM INVESTMENT

  • CARGO FORECATING

- DEVELOPING COUNTIRES: NO FORECATING

- DEVELOPED COUNTRIES: OVER FORECATING

  • SHIPPING REQUIREMENT IN THE REGION
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OBJECTIVES OF STUDY

Korea Maritime Institute

  • PROVIDING MEDIUM AND LONG-TERM PROSPECTS FOR SHIPPING AND PORT DEVELOPMENT
  • FORMULATING POLICY GUIDELINES FOR REGIONAL MARITIME STRATEGY PLANNING
  • ACCESSING THE IMPACT OF THE CHANGES IN MARITITME ENVIRONMENT
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METHODOLOGY

Korea Maritime Institute

  • COLLECTING BASE DATA

- CIY DATA

- SURVEY TO PORT AUTHORITIES

  • TOOL: UPGARDED MPPM
  • COUTRY LEVEL SEMINARS
slide11

UN/ESCAP Maritime Policy Planning Model (MPPM)

Korea Maritime Institute

  • DEVELOPED IN 1992
  • 3 SUB-REGION STUDIES

: ASEAN(1992), SOUTH ASIA(1993), EAST ASIA(1994)

  • 1 INTRA REGIONAL STUDY (1997)
  • REGIONAL SHIPPING AND PORT DEVELOPMENT STUDY (2001)
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MODULES OF MPPM

Korea Maritime Institute

TRADE MODULE

FORECAST TRADE FLOW

ON COUNTY TO COUNTRY BASE

PORT ASSIGNMENT

MODULE

COUNTY TO COUNTRY TRADE FLOW

TO PORT TO PORT FLOW

LINER SHIPPING

NETWORK MODULE

ALLOCATE TRADE FLOW TO SHIPPING ROUTE

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UPGRADE MPPM

Korea Maritime Institute

  • ORIGINAL MPPM

- BASED ON DOS SYSTEM

- RESTRICTED NUMBER OF PORT AND T/S HUB

- DIFFICULT TO USE

  • UPGRADED MPPM

- WINDOW VERSION

- USER FRIENDLINESS

- POSSIBLE INLAND TRASPORTATION SYSTEM EXPANSION

  • KOREAN GOV’T FINANCES MODEL UPGRADE
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POSSIBLE BENEFICIARIES

Korea Maritime Institute

  • PORT PLANNER/GOVERNMENT

FOMULATING REALISTIC STRATEGIES IN DEVELOPING PORT FACILITIES AND HUB-PORT

  • SHIPOWNER

SHIPPING ROUTE DECISION, SHIPPING CAPACITY INVESTMENT

  • SHIPPER

EFFICIENT SHIPPING NETWORK

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STUDY OUTPUT

Korea Maritime Institute

  • REGIONAL MARITIME STRATEGY PLANNING PUBLICATION INCLUDING CONTAINER FLOW PROJECTIONS, INVESTMENT REQUIREMENT AND POLICY ACTION GUIDELINES
  • REPORT OF STUDY FINDINGS AND PROCEDINGS OF THE COUNTRY-LEVEL SEMINARS
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PROJECT STAGES AND SCHEDULE

Korea Maritime Institute

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PROJECT BUDGET

Korea Maritime Institute

(IN US$)

UN/ESCAP WILL PROVIDE THE SOURCE OF MPPM AND THE GOVERNMENT OF REPUBLIC OF KOREA WILL UPGARDE THE MPPM AT THE COST OF US$100,000 THIS YEAR.

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THANK YOU VERY MUCH

KOREA MARITIME INSTITUTE

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